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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

How about PDX?

1609264800-e9XgqV40eHk.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 26 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am. Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

First snow of the year! Melting quick but at least a little left. Was down south picking up a new family member. 

Major shift on the 12z EPS to lower heights over the West with rising heights in the SE compared to the 00z last night. Looking like a really fun mid month on through the Holidays. Perfect timing IMO!

Posted Images

Roseburg doe...

1609264800-AlqpBovoOH0.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 26 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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About 9 days out should be interesting...barring a rug-pull.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 26 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Looks like a run of the mill, coastal/NW interior windstorm.  Don't see 60 even making it inland anywhere.

Yea what’s modeled is definitely not run of the mill. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.24”

Cold season rainfall-25.27”

Snowfall-Tr.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yea what’s modeled is definitely not run of the mill. 

Just from experience, I never saw those winds materialize in anywhere but east county, NW interior, and or near Admiralty Inlet, N. of Everett, etc.......while I lived there for 14 years.

Not poo-pooing anything, I just don't see that as a huge windstorm for interior valleys.

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8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Just from experience, I never saw those winds materialize in anywhere but east county, NW interior, and or near Admiralty Inlet, N. of Everett, etc.......while I lived there for 14 years.

Not poo-pooing anything, I just don't see that as a huge windstorm for interior valleys.

You mean windstorms don’t produce strong winds anywhere else in the lowlands?

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.24”

Cold season rainfall-25.27”

Snowfall-Tr.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX has achieved 40. Knew they would find some way to pull it off. Calendar year 2020 will go down with 0 sub-40 highs.

An almost wintry 38/24 today at SLE. 

Still better than even odds SLE has already seen their coldest max of the winter with the 33 on Christmas Eve. 

I’m struggling to remember the last time they pulled it off?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Didn't say that, but there is a signature for the strongest winds in the normal locations.....at least via that model.

There’s always stronger winds up north obviously...but we can get pretty strong southerly winds in the interior valleys south of Everett in Washington and Oregon...just not as easy as the north interior. We’ve had a few 60Mph+ storms in the past couple years. 3 60mph storms in a 3 week time span in 18-19. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.24”

Cold season rainfall-25.27”

Snowfall-Tr.

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s always stronger winds up north obviously...but we can get pretty strong southerly winds in the interior valleys south of Everett in Washington and Oregon...just not as easy as the north interior. We’ve had a few 60Mph+ storms in the past couple years. 3 60mph storms in a 3 week time span in 18-19. 

True, I'm just talking about likelihood.

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6 hours ago, Timmy said:

You can rent those houses for like 80$ a night. Although I think there is no water in the winter time. There is a wood pipe that goes from there to olive Lake (7miles) it’s probably mostly buried in snow right now. But pretty cool They used it to create power at the powerhouse and then it ran all the way down to Sumpter.

It was cool. We even got a personal tour from the winter caretaker. Well actually it sounds like he’s up there all year. That would be quite the life.

He also owns the lodge down in Granite which is where we are staying.

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15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Ah. My guess would be early 2000s. It’s hard to remember the unmemorable.

Nice call!  Looks like it was 2001.  1999, 2001 and D**n near 2002 pulled it off.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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52 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yea what’s modeled is definitely not run of the mill. 

That period needs to be watched.  Some model runs have a pretty insane looking bomb hitting somewhere in the NW.  The trajectory seems a bit flat for a classic though.  Still well worth watching.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

-NAO also slows the AMOC & lowers Gulf Stream temperatures.

Would take a nice bite out of Arctic OHC if by some miracle it can persist beyond a few years. Lol. 🤷‍♀️

My mowerplow has a duel OHC! Coincidence...I don’t think so!! 

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14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It was cool. We even got a personal tour from the winter caretaker. Well actually it sounds like he’s up there all year. That would be quite the life.

He also owns the lodge down in Granite which is where we are staying.

Yup I’ve met him. He had a dog up there too in the summer.  Maybe don’t read up on him while you are staying there...  

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The ensembles seem to have picked up on a theme of the above normal heights associated with the NAO block retrograding westward though Canada during the first half of January.  Probably due to the strat warming event reversing the polar gyre.  The models seem to want to merge (bridge) the NAO block remnants with something over the Pacific around mid January.  Besides that the models are now looking confident there will be an MJO wave emerging soon.  It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Extended range GEFS, Jan 18-25.

Coldest 850mb anomalies anywhere in the NH are located over NW North America.

 

image.png

image.png

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Just now, Jesse said:

We’re staying here one more night... 😰

I never actually read up on it but legend has it that he killed a man cowboy style. But I don’t know the details.  I know he had the lodge for sale when we were up there.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We’re staying here one more night... 😰

Whatever you do....don't ever stay at any point from I5 to Packwood.  Nice people but that is a huge banana belt.   I stayed there for a week during winter, mid-January.  Was literally 50 degrees there when the forecast called for snow levels below it's elevation.  I ended up driving up a little higher, a couple afternoons, literally 10 miles down the highway and it was a winter wonderland.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I never actually read up on it but legend has it that he killed a man cowboy style. But I don’t know the details.  I know he had the lodge for sale when we were up there.

We were talking to the lady who we reserved the AirBnB through today and she was saying it just sold. They are hoping the new owners keep it as a lodge and don’t turn it into a private home.

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10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ventrice's tweet seemed to indicate it would become mature in about 6 days or so.  Does that sound right to you?  And maybe a mid January arctic outbreak.

Yeah roughly a week for the first attack. That said, as modeled presently, this looks like a fairly prolonged event. Could be multiple warmings as Eurasian PV lobe takes multiple hits and bleeds out.

Timing of pattern change hinges on both the SSW structure/wave driving and the subsequent MJO response in IO. But yeah, second half of January looks like a smart wager to me if there ever was one.

Unfiltered CPC phase diagrams for MJO likely aren’t going to grab the inception of the MJO at first, given elements of interference, so ignore those for now.

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Iceagenow 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Leavenworth, still one of the few places I have been to where it dropped 30 degrees in 3 hours and changed from 50 degree heavy rain to 20 degree heavy snow.

I lived in the Rockies for most of my teen years, so got to see a day in the mid/upper 70's followed by a snowy day more than a few times. Really was freaky the first few times then one grew to expect it (and to recognize the warning signs that it was coming).

It's called clown range for a reason.

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