Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: From the research I have done a really wet October is one of the best signs. Doesn't always work out (2012), but 2016 tracked well with history. Yeah, cool and/or active is rarely a bad bet Andrew. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 I was outside doing some yardwork and noticed we had a brisk breeze out of the north. I would love to just get some real cold at this point.....outside of one day when I think we hit about 24-25, it just hasn't been getting that cold at night. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jesse said: Yeah, cool and/or active is rarely a bad bet Andrew. Didn't work out for us in October 2019, only colder October's on record at SLE were 1949 and 1919. LOLz 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Acer said: The ridge building into Alaska from the west has good amplification and is moving eastward at 276 hours. The basic setup is looking promising if it continues. edit: hour 300 just dashed that hope Wow, that was a ridiculous post. What's wrong with you? Get another hobby you dumb sh*t. 1 3 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Didn't work out for us in October 2019, only colder October's on record at SLE were 1949 and 1919. LOLz I’m going to take that one sample and crystallize it into an absolutely irrational fear of anything resembling longwave troughing before 12/1. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Didn't work out for us in October 2019, only colder October's on record at SLE were 1949 and 1919. LOLz Of course calling that month active would be a stretch. Chilly and dry. Felt like we got a taste of central Oregon’s October climo that year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: From the research I have done a really wet October is one of the best signs. Doesn't always work out (2012), but 2016 tracked well with history. I looked into that a year ago (following a similar debate on here) and found a very weak negative correlation between Oct precip & DJF temp departures. Basically useless. Not even remotely close to statistical significance. There are individual cases where you have a highly anomalous pattern in October (see: 2009, for example) where it actually is indicative of something on the larger scale. But that’s only after understanding *why* the pattern is occurring. Because that *same pattern* could emerge through a wide array of in-situ boundary conditions. Some of which evolve in ways that offer no predictive benefit whatsoever, while others are more foundational and can be extrapolated from, at least statistically (even then it can fail). In the end, this stuff isn’t useful for making long range projections. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 No action for here on the 18z. Oh well...the usual. 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: I looked into that a year ago (following a similar debate on here) and found a very weak negative correlation between Oct precip & DJF temp departures. Basically useless. Not even remotely close to statistical significance. There are individual cases where you have a highly anomalous pattern in October (see: 2009, for example) where it actually is indicative of something on the larger scale. But that’s only after understanding *why* the pattern is occurring. Because that *same pattern* could emerge through a wide array of in-situ boundary conditions. Some of which evolve in ways that offer no predictive benefit whatsoever, while others are more foundational and can be extrapolated from, at least statistically (even then it can fail). In the end, this stuff isn’t useful for making long range projections. Sort of a different way of making my same point. It's largely dependent upon the context of the year in question. But by no means a stand alone, universal predictor either way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, Phil said: I looked into that a year ago (following a similar debate on here) and found a very weak negative correlation between Oct precip & DJF temp departures. Basically useless. Not even remotely close to statistical significance. There are individual cases where you have a highly anomalous pattern in October (see: 2009, for example) where it actually is indicative of something on the larger scale. But that’s only after understanding *why* the pattern is occurring. Because that *same pattern* could emerge through a wide array of in-situ boundary conditions. Some of which evolve in ways that offer no predictive benefit whatsoever, while others are more foundational and can be extrapolated from, at least statistically (even then it can fail). In the end, this stuff isn’t useful for making long range projections. As years go on here that will continue to change. Been a trend I’ve noticed since my senior year of HS, one of the 4 worst winters for me here. Along with 91-92, 14-15, and 19-20. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 WOW. The whole coast get's hammered 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: WOW. The whole coast get's hammered I’m in the green! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: As years go on here that will continue to change. Been a trend I’ve noticed since my senior year of HS, one of the 4 worst winters for me here. Along with 91-92, 14-15, and 19-20. October 2014 was one of our warmest on record... I already made a list of all the years since 2000 that it's worked out, versus those that it hasn't. It's a sign of strength to be able to modify your opinions when provided with ample evidence to the contrary. I'm not even trying to argue that cold in October is always good, just that it's not always bad and in fact there are many examples of both. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 44/41 today with 0.12” of rain. Atleast we’ve got something to look for on the models. Looking like in and around the Seattle area...our best shot at some snow down to sea level will be Wednesday morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 My old friend is back 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Well that's new... If we can get that block further east, we'll send that cold air in central Canada southward. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Unfortunately, it looks like there hasn't been any eastward shift with that block center over the last 24 hours. That could easily change, though. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 This has been a very long month. 1 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: This has been a very long month. The dog days of a warm PNW winter... 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Well that's new... If we can get that block further east, we'll send that cold air in central Canada southward. Yeah, I could definitely see that turning into a Fraser River event with some northern bleed-in. Think we might see it emerge on some future runs as it plays around with the block. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Control run C'MON!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Didn't work out for us in October 2019, only colder October's on record at SLE were 1949 and 1919. LOLz +ENSO Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: This has been a very long month. People have been either expecting an absolute snowmaggeddon or an endless torchfest. It's been a very polarizing and overemotional past few weeks, partly due to the admittedly huge expectations for this winter, but also due to its sheer disappointment thus far. Though I'm reserving criticism for those who are (rightly) disappointed, even if what they are saying is untrue or their logic is flawed, because of the wildfires this last September. I think we all collectively shudder when thinking about them, and a few members lost property and livestock during those three weeks, or otherwise had the oppressiveness of the sun-blotching smoke compound on health problems and depression, all that stuff. This Spring will almost surely replenish the Oregon Cascade snowpack, that much is clear. Or at least, it will make up the necessary ground to prevent a total disaster next summer. 5 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: +ENSO Worth noting the other two lead to historic, long lived mid-winter cold spells. I'm not sure about 1919-20 but obviously 1949-50 was strong -ENSO. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like the 18z NAM is taking after it's 18z GFS brethren and showing outlandish totals through Sunday PM. I'm in the 5"+ zone! I'm not onboard though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, I could definitely see that turning into a Fraser River event with some northern bleed-in. Think we might see it emerge on some future runs as it plays around with the block. And all of my annoying whining will pay off...Just like it did in February of 2018! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 I guess they expect less than 1" here 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Love this little girl. 7 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, 1000'NorthBend said: I lived in Yreka for a summer, fell in love with the Klamath National Forest. The weather was a bit too hot for me but I’m not too tolerant of temps over 85. There was a stream I would visit that drained from glaciers on Shasta that had near-DAILY small debris flows from intense glacial melt late in the day. Not only is it a beautiful area but some of the best gold prospecting in the US is just to the west. Next time I’m down that way I’d love to try prospecting. Haven't been to Jacksonville or the Applegate River (great river for prospecting, or so I've heard) so I'll have to go there too. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: I put them on back in late October... but have taken them off numerous times since then to use the hose during yard work since there has been no snow cover at all this winter. And I don't think the covers are really needed unless the temp stays below freezing during the day as well. Agree, that’s when mine will go on and I really really want to put mine on!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Temps dropping quickly under a north wind currently. Hoping we get some sort of stationary band to set up over here tonight. Maybe an inch or two if all pans out. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: My old friend is back Ur friends with Tim? 1 5 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Off topic but i have terrible cell service at my home and only dish internet is available. I had 1 bar of 4g and so i did research on signal boosters and purchased one. I now have 4 bars 4g and my download speed went from 10-12 to 40 -45!! pretty amazed it worked. Cool when these toys actually work!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, AbbyJr said: Yeah this is some bizarre s**t. Closest one I can think of is 1998/99. SSW in December 1998, then another in Feb 1999. But those were separated by 9+ weeks and at very different stages in the seasonal/radiative cycle(s). 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Cool when these toys actually work!! With what they charge we shouldn't have to do any extra modifications. It should work flawlessly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: Hoping we can make it 5 years in a row with measurable snowfall in the month of February this year. February has been the trend for us....a good bet it will deliver once again. January needs a hard reboot or reset back to factory setting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Kind of a bleak damp day here . 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Though as far as I know wind reversals should be separated by 20 consecutive days of westerlies @ 60N/10mb to qualify as separate events. In this case it is a new set of wave breaks coming out of Eurasia (again) however there likely wouldn’t be a second SSW without the first one rendering the vortex so vulnerable to WAFz, so . My brain views it as single event/process, as would the conventional definition, even if it technically isn’t. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said: I was outside doing some yardwork and noticed we had a brisk breeze out of the north. I would love to just get some real cold at this point.....outside of one day when I think we hit about 24-25, it just hasn't been getting that cold at night. I picked up on that as well as I was walking from my car into Lows. I did the Bill Paxton look from twister. Quite the powerful moment 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by OysterPrintout,
3 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.