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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Do you think it was snowing at your place at any point today? We definitely had 2-3 hours of snow here, and it started trying to stick for a half hour or so before the changeover.

It was flurrying when I left and it sounds like we had a solid 2 hours of snow. May have been a trace but nothing leftover now.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

It was flurrying when I left and it sounds like we had a solid 2 hours of snow. May have been a trace but nothing leftover now.

At least we won't leave January flakeless!

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41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did this somewhat mirror the 12/11/2000 event? I remember that being sort of middle of the day, and Keizer, Dallas, Mac, etc doing pretty well while we just had a quick dusting in the east valley. 

Kinda similar in terms of where the totals added up. Much different at 500mb though with a sharper low level cold push, as a large arctic airmass was barreling into the eastside of the region that day and that snow was the peripheral extent of it. The Portland area had a modest transition event the next day into the 13th, the "highlight" of said winter.

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13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Day 11.5 new GFS 

image.thumb.png.bd7ce4536f8a7545dd3587fa040a445d.png

image.thumb.png.dbdd5d2d8f39864af10d6079bb1378eb.png

image.thumb.png.9033c895dc3772db4d67a03b8bf0872c.png

Oh good lord, I like cold but not that cold!

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Kinda similar in terms of where the totals added up. Much different at 500mb though with a sharper low level cold push, as a large arctic airmass was barreling into the eastside of the region that day and that snow was the peripheral extent of it. The Portland area had a modest transition event the next day into the 13th, the "highlight" of said winter.

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

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30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Kinda similar in terms of where the totals added up. Much different at 500mb though with a sharper low level cold push, as a large arctic airmass was barreling into the eastside of the region that day and that snow was the peripheral extent of it. The Portland area had a modest transition event the next day into the 13th, the "highlight" of said winter.

Thanks. A lot of times, I remember the observed weather for certain days very vividly, but have no memory of the bigger upper level picture. 
 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I think I like this new GFS better. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted.  Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country.  One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane.  It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think I like this new GFS better. 

Can't wait to see how it performs.  You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Back up to 40 after dipping down to 38 earlier...but the DP is down to 24 again. Some precip to the south still but not much. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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10 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

Some of us actually remember individual events off the top of our heads.  Talk about obsession!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Was nice to have a couple of hours of wet snow this evening even though it didn’t stick. Going to have to go out to kitsap tomorrow to get my snow fix in. Still have lots of hope for February...interested to see if the ensembles all look good tonight. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't wait to see how it performs.  You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade.

Anecdotally it seems much more prone to wild unrealistic solutions. I wish it were a real upgrade but I have to assume its verification scores are lower.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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12 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

I can remember most of the big events of the 20th century...I have a much better memory of 21st century events though as I’m only 21. I keep daily records too that also helps me remember. Justin has a much more detailed memory of historical events as well as the large scale weather features that accompanied them. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted.  Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country.  One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane.  It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though.

I don’t want to sound like Suzie sunshine here, but 2011 would be an example of an extemelY blocky February that eventually worked out, even if the first couple blasts went east.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z not having it in the clown range. Dramatically muted with the airmass. Solid little clipper hits us beforehand, though.

It comes close enough.  Just a bit more tilt or back digging and it's here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

On a serious note, can I ask how you remember all these past events in detail?

Do you keep a log on all these events?

Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. 😁

I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well....

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Anecdotally it seems much more prone to wild unrealistic solutions. I wish it were a real upgrade but I have to assume its verification scores are lower.

There is really no way to know that yet.  I would have to think the upgrade is real or they wouldn't have done it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Wait. Scratch that. Forget Day 10. I think it would be beneficial to just have the GFS, GEM, ECMWF Op run to Day 5. Ensembles to Day 10. That would help with accuracy, more reliable trends, and the sanity of weather geeks world wide.

 

Yes/No?

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t want to sound like Suzie sunshine here, but 2011 would be an example of an extemelY blocky February that eventually worked out, even if the first couple blasts went east.

The fact remains a lot of really crazy stuff has happened this winter like the amazing snow event in Spain, or the stuff currently going on in the SW United States.  The NE has had a couple of notable events.  All of this in a winter where we are theoretically the location most likely to end with a colder than normal winter given the base state.  We are due to score.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It comes close enough.  Just a bit more tilt or back digging and it's here.

Certainly just feels like we're going to see an extended -EPO block at some point in February. With a Nina I don't dislike our chances.

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wait. Scratch that. Forget Day 10. I think it would be beneficial to just have the GFS, GEM, ECMWF Op run to Day 5. Ensembles to Day 10. That would help with accuracy, more reliable trends, and the sanity of weather geeks world wide.

 

Yes/No?

NO.  I like the far out stuff.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. 😁

I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well....

My memory of December 19, 1990, February 19, 1993, or December 29, 2003 is vivid. I could give you a detailed account of my day on February 18th and 19th, 1993. But ask me about last Tuesday and I could not tell you what I did that day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't wait to see how it performs.  You would have to assume it's got to be better than the current GFS since it's an upgrade.

I don't think it works that linearly. Upgrading the architecture of a major global model requires pinpoint adjustments, each with their own biases that need correcting. The final product should be more accurate, sure, but as of right now it's tough to say.

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If anyone need a snow fix, watch the Truckee airport cam... just caught a glimpse of it and it’s blowing sideways.   Snow looks powdery and the wind is just blowing everything off the runway. It’s supposed to get heavier thru the night. 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My memory of December 19, 1990, February 19, 1993, or December 29, 2003 is vivid. I could give you a detailed account of my day on February 18th and 19th, 1993. But ask me about last Tuesday and I could not tell you what I did that day. 

The worst is me trying to remember grocery items without committing to lists. I have to make 2-3 return trips sometimes...

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If anyone need a snow fix, watch the Truckee airport cam... just caught a glimpse of it and it’s blowing sideways.   Snow looks powdery and the wind is just blowing everything off the runway. It’s supposed to get heavier thru the night. 

The next couple days there are going to be insane.

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Low. Solar.

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Combination of memory and research, and memorizing said research. 😁

I guess I have kind of a pronounced odd knack for memorizing obscure and often irrelevant info/numbers. Works for sports, geography, history, technology... With weather I formed a lot of my knowledge from the context of just picking apart climatology and past events. Wish I could remember to do things around the house half as well....

I remember specific activities during events but not all the exact meteorological specifics from a weather event. I wouldn’t mind going back again and researching how it all went down but I am just too lazy to piecemeal the different sites to compile it all.  I really need to document in detail past events which I may start doing (if someone wants to babysit my kids).

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Starting to flurry a bit here again. Been lots of 38-40 degree snow tonight with these low DPs. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The next couple days there are going to be insane.

Feel like right now it’s just child’s play with the 18-20mph gusts. It’s supposed to gust up to 50mph. Lol. 

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