December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[primetime 25]

12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range.  Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

[snow_wizard 10189]

12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range.  Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

 

Thanks for letting us know!

[MossMan 9295]

Very nice.

 

I heard that it has been a good year for the tree farms. The past 5-6 years have been pretty bleak up here. A common scene after Christmas the last few years has been the tree farms pulling the mature trees they were unable to sell and burning them (Freshly pulled Christmas trees in the middle of winter actually don't burn, they just kind of smolder for weeks on end.). This year it doesn't look like that will be happening at least to that scope as the farmers have been telling me that business is brisk. Part of that is also that the glut of trees which were planted in the mid 2000s has now waned.

 

That is what I have heard as well, though talking to the owner of the tree farm that we go to, it has been very slow for his place this year. He is up in Silvana Heights on an amazing 5 acres overlooking the valley of Stanwood and the Stillaguamish river below. Sounds like he might be selling in a few years, it's been in his family since the 50's. I have been going there with my family since I was my daughters age. Got me thinking...tree farm side business!!

[primetime 25]

Thanks for letting us know!

 

No problem.  I'd personally like to see it dump east of the Rockies given my location, but the Euro Ensemble is wanting to focus the cold moreso in the western and central states.  GFS Ensemble has it farther east...but hard to go against the Euro Ens in a model war.

[DareDuck 282]

Feels like a typical winter day here. 40 and stuck under an inversion. Days like today I've just come to expect it to be cloudy all day. Looks like a nice day out in Bend though, can't wait to move there in the next month or two. 

[MossMan 9295]

How many arctic intrusions have we ever had in one season?

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Feels like a typical winter day here. 40 and stuck under an inversion. Days like today I've just come to expect it to be cloudy all day. Looks like a nice day out in Bend though, can't wait to move there in the next month or two. 

 

Most times with inversions I stay above the muck here, except for the really deep ones like December 2011 and January 2013.

[BLI snowman 5822]

How many arctic intrusions have we ever had in one season?

 

Some winters, like 1948-49, have had so many continental airmasses that they kind of just blur together and stretch for most of the winter. 

[bainbridgekid 2874]

12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range.  Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

Here it is at hour 360.

 

Definitely a decently strong blocking signal. The GEM ensemble is even a bit more amplified but centered a little further East.

 

[Front Ranger 7373]

Some winters, like 1948-49, have had so many continental airmasses that they kind of just blur together and stretch for most of the winter. 

 

Yeah, 1948-49 is probably the king since widespread records began for most Arctic or semi-Arctic intrusions in the PNW. There were probably 7-8 separate Arctic/continental air masses that winter. But that was very unusual, of course. 

 

Other winters with at least 3 separate Arctic/continental intrusions: 1949-50, 1951-52, 1955-56, 1961-62, 1968-69, 1970-71, 1978-79, 1984-85, 1990-91, 1992-93, 2008-09, and 2010-11. It's very rare to get more than 3, though, probably only 3-4 winters in the airport era have seen that.

[Snow 82]

D+11 06Z GFS ANALOG COMPOSITE early this morning. I noticed the 2nd best correlation date was 12/22/1979. We all know then what happened in early January 1980. Since this is centered on 12/14/2014, we are looking at the Dec. 30 to Jan 1 time frame for snow with arctic air coming before that time. There are hints of a SSW event over Siberia which would result in colder air coming starting 2 to 3 weeks from now.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/14js461.jpg

I'm glad we are starting to see an Arctic blast in the models. Things look on track for Arctic air to invade the PNW the last week of December. ❄❄❄❄❄

[snow_wizard 10189]

Here it is at hour 360.

 

Definitely a decently strong blocking signal. The GEM ensemble is even a bit more amplified but centered a little further East.

 

 

Fabulous placement there.  The chances are growing we get hit this month.

[snow_wizard 10189]

I just noticed it appears it's going to be fairly chilly for much of this week due to fairly low thicknesses and very weak offshore surface pressure gradients.  Could get rather nippy.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

18z digs the cold air JUST east. The trough really digs deep into the SW.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

The kind of situation the 18z shows would undoubtedly be very chilly at the surface for the PNW and down right cold east of the Cascades. Very much like what happened in late December 2010/January 2011. 

[snow_wizard 10189]

No doubt the 18z GFS is the closest yet to really freezing us.  Dangerously close to a major blast.  As it is 850s drop to about -7 for SEA.  It has certainly been trending westward over the past few runs.  This run in combo with the 12z ECMWF ensemble looks very hopeful to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

No doubt the 18z GFS is the closest yet to really freezing us.  Dangerously close to a major blast.  As it is 850s drop to about -7 for SEA.  It has certainly been trending westward over the past few runs.  This run in combo with the 12z ECMWF ensemble looks very hopeful

 

I would still be surprised to see a major blast before January 5th. For the past few days I have been saying I think something along the lines of what this run shows is most likely. I think retrogression to the sweet spot will occur later.

[IbrChris 956]

I love it when the pros come here with this kind of analysis.  My only personal disagreement is with the last paragraph.  I personally think it's more likely that the models are going to lock into some sort of arctic blast around Christmas--most likely around the 27th or 28th timeframe.   As a sidenote, I think as upgrades are made to the GFS, we are going to find more instances of it making the early prognosis over the currently favored Euro--which is going to drive everyone crazy since they won't know which model to trust as time goes on. 

Ask and ye shall receive...last 24 hours of runs have really gravitated toward a favorable longwave pattern in the N Pacific to get us the "goods" ie arctic air...looks like Dec 25-Jan 5 timeframe has the best shot. Support among Euro ensemble members has increased from 60% (00z) to 80% of members (12z Dec 14). About a quarter of members suggest a possible major arctic blast in the PNW. The pattern in the 11-15 is close to the classic PNW arctic blast look: Ridge centered around 160 W (varying amplitude) and trough digging south across far western Canada. In fact there is more support for a western US arctic blast versus a central/eastern blast in the longer range...that said the ridging over the SE US is anemic at best with most ensemble solutions. This is problematic as a lack of SE/E US ridging generally points to a more transitory event for the western US with the PV lobe tending to vacate eastward rather quickly (into the central US). There is some reason to believe downstream development may put a stronger/more amplified ridge across the SE/E US versus what ensembles suggest as we get closer.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Salem trying to end their streak of 9 straight 50+ days. 

[TT-SEA 1762]

I would still be surprised to see a major blast before January 5th. For the past few days I have been saying I think something along the lines of what this run shows is most likely. I think retrogression to the sweet spot will occur later.

 

 

My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

[stuffradio 911]

My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

Seemed to work in Jan 2012. I was in a Math upgrade class the first week of Jan 2012. I told one of the students next to me classes will be cancelled the following week due to snow and arctic air. He laughed at me and said that won't happen. Guess what happened? Unfortunately, he didn't return to class for me to say told you so.

[GHweatherChris 2866]

My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

My god.... who cares.

 

You allowing what is said on here to affect you emotionally is weirder than what is talked about.

[TT-SEA 1762]

Seemed to work in Jan 2012. I was in a Math upgrade class the first week of Jan 2012. I told one of the students next to me classes will be cancelled the following week due to snow and arctic air. He laughed at me and said that won't happen. Guess what happened? Unfortunately, he didn't return to class for me to say told you so.

 

 

That was sort of arctic... never came all the way south and was not right around New Years.  

[TT-SEA 1762]

My god.... who cares.

 

You allowing what is said on here to affect you emotionally is weirder than what is talked about.

 

 

Not affecting me at all... just was thinking how the talk in the middle of December is about a blast around New Years.   Its an annual tradition for us.   

[Deweydog 13278]

My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after. Never seems to work out though.

Weenie romp!

 

We never sniffed at a chance last year.

[Phil 10996]

I'm sticking with my early/mid January window..I don't the breaker train will do enough damage to freeze the west until after New Years. A glancing blow may be possible, though.

 

Glad to see that our long-range ideas on pattern progression are working out, though.

[Phil 10996]

Boom..let's see if we can get a full bifurcation in JAN:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/BTr4C2/1280.jpg

[BLI snowman 5822]

Not affecting me at all... just was thinking how the talk in the middle of December is about a blast around New Years.   Its an annual tradition for us.   

 

Obviously it drives you insane to see people talking about cold troughing. And it's just not healthy. Normal people don't care whether there's discussion about cold troughing versus possibly just average temperatures. Like 5 degrees is really going to matter that much to everyday folk! LOL!

[Front Ranger 7373]

That was sort of arctic... never came all the way south and was not right around New Years.  

 

It was Arctic air for Seattle...just a pretty weak push. 

 

On the 15th, winds turned N/NE in the afternoon and temps dropped below freezing: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/2012/1/15/DailyHistory.html

[Front Ranger 7373]

My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

 

Jan 2013 was the one winter I was really bullish on an early January Arctic event for the West. It worked out, but ended up fairly weak for the PNW.

 

Another time in recent years where it definitely got cold enough for you guys to get snow, but just didn't come together.

[TT-SEA 1762]

Obviously it drives you insane to see people talking about cold troughing. And it's just not healthy. Normal people don't care whether there's discussion about cold troughing versus possibly just average temperatures. Like 5 degrees is really going to matter that much to everyday folk! LOL!

 

 

Not at all... I would pay $1,000 right now to have genuine snow and cold for the week between Christmas and New Years.   Would be totally worth it... like paying to take a trip somewhere.

 

I love cold troughing this time of year.   About as much as I love ridging in the summer.

 

You are not taking into account my seasonal preferences!    

[iFred 4653]

Please, before I just start banning people, if you don't have anything to contribute to the conversation that isnt either constructive, an observation, or well intentioned, then don't say anything at all.

[Snow 82]

Boom..let's see if we can get a full bifurcation in JAN:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/BTr4C2/1280.jpg

That's insane!

[Phil 10996]

I wouldn't call January 2013 "Arctic" at all, at least not until after the 20th when the big blast slid east of the Rockies. The earlier airmass that came down over the intermountain west had no arctic connection..

[TT-SEA 1762]

My son is going through skiing withdrawl right now... I have linked him to all the models on his iPhone now so he can stop killing the messenger when it comes to the prospects for mountain snow (i.e. me)!   

[Phil 10996]

The PNW has until mid-January to score, as a Niño-esque pattern will likely return in late January..just a heads up..

[iFred 4653]

Not at all... I would pay $1,000 right now to have genuine snow and cold for the week between Christmas and New Years.   Would be totally worth it... like paying to take a trip somewhere.

 

I love cold troughing this time of year.   About as much as I love ridging in the summer.

 

You are not taking into account my seasonal preferences!    

 

I am convinced that you like the cold and snow in the Winter, but in all fairness, this is the fifth year that you have complained.

[TT-SEA 1762]

I am convinced that you like the cold and snow in the Winter, but in all fairness, this is the fifth year that you have complained.

 

 

About what?   I was the one guaranteeing the arctic outbreak around Christmas last year.    Could not have been more wrong!

 

I am not blaming anyone... just pointing out something it seems we do every year.

 

I like the chances right now in about 10 days.    Just have been burned numerous years in a row.

[Deweydog 13278]

About what?   I was the one guaranteeing the arctic outbreak around Christmas last year.    Could not have been more wrong!

 

I am not blaming anyone... just pointing out something it seems we do every year.

 

I like the chances right now in about 10 days.    Just have been burned numerous years in a row.

 

Is that interesting?  Cold weather freaks wanting cold air during the coldest time of the year?  Weird, wacko stuff, man...

[BLI snowman 5822]

I wouldn't call January 2013 "Arctic" at all, at least not until after the 20th when the big blast slid east of the Rockies. The earlier airmass that came down over the intermountain west had no arctic connection..

 

Yeah, we didn't have a real arctic tap there. Light offshore flow at its peak.

[BLI snowman 5822]

The PNW has until mid-January to score, as a Niño-esque pattern will likely return in late January..just a heads up..

 

Par for the course here. February rarely excites in a warm ENSO year.

[TT-SEA 1762]

Is that interesting?  Cold weather freaks wanting cold air during the coldest time of the year?  Weird, wacko stuff, man...

 

 

For me its also that the week between Christmas and New Years is the best of the entire cold season for obvious reasons... so I become even less objective!

[Deweydog 13278]

For me its also that the week between Christmas and New Years is the best of the entire cold season for obvious reasons... so I become even less objective!

 

The days start getting longer a week from today!  AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[snow_wizard 10189]

My god.... who cares.

 

You allowing what is said on here to affect you emotionally is weirder than what is talked about.

 

I have just simply stopped paying attention to him.  Just nothing but sour grapes this year.

[Deweydog 13278]

Meanwhile, six years ago today was quite frustrating on this side of the river.  Ask KVUO snowman.  It simply can't snow in Clark County anymore.  

[snow_wizard 10189]

Jan 2013 was the one winter I was really bullish on an early January Arctic event for the West. It worked out, but ended up fairly weak for the PNW.

 

Another time in recent years where it definitely got cold enough for you guys to get snow, but just didn't come together.

 

It was certainly cold enough.  I got an inch or so.  We just needed more moisture.

[TT-SEA 1762]

I have just simply stopped paying attention to him.  Just nothing but sour grapes this year.

 

Sour grapes?   Can you tell me about what?     

 

Awesome summer, fall, and now early winter.   I am running on 10 months of getting everything I hoped for weatherwise.    Does not get better.   And 2013 was awesome as well.

 

2014 has sealed itself has being one of my favorite weather years in my life.     

[BLI snowman 5822]

Meanwhile, six years ago today was quite frustrating on this side of the river.  Ask KVUO snowman.  It simply can't snow in Clark County anymore.  

 

Ask deweydog, no snow in Clark County last December 6 going into that arctic outbreak 

[Front Ranger 7373]

I wouldn't call January 2013 "Arctic" at all, at least not until after the 20th when the big blast slid east of the Rockies. The earlier airmass that came down over the intermountain west had no arctic connection..

 

Eh, I'm not going to argue about it, but I think some of the numbers in the West speak for themselves. 

 

Spokane: two sub-20 highs

Boise: 17/2

Salt Lake City: 14/-2

Denver: 11/-5

 

Those aren't numbers that happen without Arctic air.

[Deweydog 13278]

Ask deweydog, no snow in Clark County last December 6 going into that arctic outbreak 

 

That inch in Felida was a hard pill to swallow.  My rant paled in comparison, though...