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December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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Sorry, but I had too....   Abbi on the left is 4lb 6oz, Lexi on the right is 6lb 2oz.  

I have no idea why I'm sharing this, but I finally broke down and got some meds to help with my mania, depression, and anger issues over the weather. It will be interesting to see how it effects my po

A beautiful day for a hike.  Temps in the 20s, really only windy in the exposed areas.   However, in those areas, I tried to spend as little time as possible.    http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landsc

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12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range.  Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

 

Thanks for letting us know!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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:) Very nice.

 

I heard that it has been a good year for the tree farms. The past 5-6 years have been pretty bleak up here. A common scene after Christmas the last few years has been the tree farms pulling the mature trees they were unable to sell and burning them (Freshly pulled Christmas trees in the middle of winter actually don't burn, they just kind of smolder for weeks on end.). This year it doesn't look like that will be happening at least to that scope as the farmers have been telling me that business is brisk. Part of that is also that the glut of trees which were planted in the mid 2000s has now waned.

 

That is what I have heard as well, though talking to the owner of the tree farm that we go to, it has been very slow for his place this year. He is up in Silvana Heights on an amazing 5 acres overlooking the valley of Stanwood and the Stillaguamish river below. Sounds like he might be selling in a few years, it's been in his family since the 50's. I have been going there with my family since I was my daughters age. Got me thinking...tree farm side business!!

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Thanks for letting us know!

 

No problem.  I'd personally like to see it dump east of the Rockies given my location, but the Euro Ensemble is wanting to focus the cold moreso in the western and central states.  GFS Ensemble has it farther east...but hard to go against the Euro Ens in a model war.

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Feels like a typical winter day here. 40 and stuck under an inversion. Days like today I've just come to expect it to be cloudy all day. Looks like a nice day out in Bend though, can't wait to move there in the next month or two. 

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Feels like a typical winter day here. 40 and stuck under an inversion. Days like today I've just come to expect it to be cloudy all day. Looks like a nice day out in Bend though, can't wait to move there in the next month or two. 

 

Most times with inversions I stay above the muck here, except for the really deep ones like December 2011 and January 2013.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range.  Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

Here it is at hour 360.

 

Definitely a decently strong blocking signal. The GEM ensemble is even a bit more amplified but centered a little further East.

 

1450926_10100732461584844_14586030330291

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Some winters, like 1948-49, have had so many continental airmasses that they kind of just blur together and stretch for most of the winter. 

 

Yeah, 1948-49 is probably the king since widespread records began for most Arctic or semi-Arctic intrusions in the PNW. There were probably 7-8 separate Arctic/continental air masses that winter. But that was very unusual, of course. 

 

Other winters with at least 3 separate Arctic/continental intrusions: 1949-50, 1951-52, 1955-56, 1961-62, 1968-69, 1970-71, 1978-79, 1984-85, 1990-91, 1992-93, 2008-09, and 2010-11. It's very rare to get more than 3, though, probably only 3-4 winters in the airport era have seen that.

Low. Solar.

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D+11 06Z GFS ANALOG COMPOSITE early this morning. I noticed the 2nd best correlation date was 12/22/1979. We all know then what happened in early January 1980. Since this is centered on 12/14/2014, we are looking at the Dec. 30 to Jan 1 time frame for snow with arctic air coming before that time. There are hints of a SSW event over Siberia which would result in colder air coming starting 2 to 3 weeks from now.

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/14js461.jpg

I'm glad we are starting to see an Arctic blast in the models. Things look on track for Arctic air to invade the PNW the last week of December. ❄❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄
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Here it is at hour 360.

 

Definitely a decently strong blocking signal. The GEM ensemble is even a bit more amplified but centered a little further East.

 

1450926_10100732461584844_14586030330291

 

Fabulous placement there.  The chances are growing we get hit this month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I just noticed it appears it's going to be fairly chilly for much of this week due to fairly low thicknesses and very weak offshore surface pressure gradients.  Could get rather nippy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18z digs the cold air JUST east. The trough really digs deep into the SW.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The kind of situation the 18z shows would undoubtedly be very chilly at the surface for the PNW and down right cold east of the Cascades. Very much like what happened in late December 2010/January 2011. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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No doubt the 18z GFS is the closest yet to really freezing us.  Dangerously close to a major blast.  As it is 850s drop to about -7 for SEA.  It has certainly been trending westward over the past few runs.  This run in combo with the 12z ECMWF ensemble looks very hopeful to me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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No doubt the 18z GFS is the closest yet to really freezing us.  Dangerously close to a major blast.  As it is 850s drop to about -7 for SEA.  It has certainly been trending westward over the past few runs.  This run in combo with the 12z ECMWF ensemble looks very hopeful

 

I would still be surprised to see a major blast before January 5th. For the past few days I have been saying I think something along the lines of what this run shows is most likely. I think retrogression to the sweet spot will occur later.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I love it when the pros come here with this kind of analysis.  My only personal disagreement is with the last paragraph.  I personally think it's more likely that the models are going to lock into some sort of arctic blast around Christmas--most likely around the 27th or 28th timeframe.   As a sidenote, I think as upgrades are made to the GFS, we are going to find more instances of it making the early prognosis over the currently favored Euro--which is going to drive everyone crazy since they won't know which model to trust as time goes on. 

Ask and ye shall receive...last 24 hours of runs have really gravitated toward a favorable longwave pattern in the N Pacific to get us the "goods" ie arctic air...looks like Dec 25-Jan 5 timeframe has the best shot. Support among Euro ensemble members has increased from 60% (00z) to 80% of members (12z Dec 14). About a quarter of members suggest a possible major arctic blast in the PNW. The pattern in the 11-15 is close to the classic PNW arctic blast look: Ridge centered around 160 W (varying amplitude) and trough digging south across far western Canada. In fact there is more support for a western US arctic blast versus a central/eastern blast in the longer range...that said the ridging over the SE US is anemic at best with most ensemble solutions. This is problematic as a lack of SE/E US ridging generally points to a more transitory event for the western US with the PV lobe tending to vacate eastward rather quickly (into the central US). There is some reason to believe downstream development may put a stronger/more amplified ridge across the SE/E US versus what ensembles suggest as we get closer.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Salem trying to end their streak of 9 straight 50+ days. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I would still be surprised to see a major blast before January 5th. For the past few days I have been saying I think something along the lines of what this run shows is most likely. I think retrogression to the sweet spot will occur later.

 

 

My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

Seemed to work in Jan 2012. I was in a Math upgrade class the first week of Jan 2012. I told one of the students next to me classes will be cancelled the following week due to snow and arctic air. He laughed at me and said that won't happen. Guess what happened? :) Unfortunately, he didn't return to class for me to say told you so.

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My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

My god.... who cares.

 

You allowing what is said on here to affect you emotionally is weirder than what is talked about.

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Seemed to work in Jan 2012. I was in a Math upgrade class the first week of Jan 2012. I told one of the students next to me classes will be cancelled the following week due to snow and arctic air. He laughed at me and said that won't happen. Guess what happened? :) Unfortunately, he didn't return to class for me to say told you so.

 

 

That was sort of arctic... never came all the way south and was not right around New Years.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My god.... who cares.

 

You allowing what is said on here to affect you emotionally is weirder than what is talked about.

 

 

Not affecting me at all... just was thinking how the talk in the middle of December is about a blast around New Years.   Its an annual tradition for us.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after. Never seems to work out though.

Weenie romp!

 

We never sniffed at a chance last year.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm sticking with my early/mid January window..I don't the breaker train will do enough damage to freeze the west until after New Years. A glancing blow may be possible, though.

 

Glad to see that our long-range ideas on pattern progression are working out, though.

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Boom..let's see if we can get a full bifurcation in JAN:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/BTr4C2/1280.jpg

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Not affecting me at all... just was thinking how the talk in the middle of December is about a blast around New Years.   Its an annual tradition for us.   

 

Obviously it drives you insane to see people talking about cold troughing. And it's just not healthy. Normal people don't care whether there's discussion about cold troughing versus possibly just average temperatures. Like 5 degrees is really going to matter that much to everyday folk! LOL!

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That was sort of arctic... never came all the way south and was not right around New Years.  

 

It was Arctic air for Seattle...just a pretty weak push. 

 

On the 15th, winds turned N/NE in the afternoon and temps dropped below freezing: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/2012/1/15/DailyHistory.html

Low. Solar.

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My god... this has to be 5th year in row or more that we talk about an arctic blast in early January.   

 

Never looks good enough for Christmas but then we always say its coming right around New Years or shortly after.    Never seems to work out though.

 

Jan 2013 was the one winter I was really bullish on an early January Arctic event for the West. It worked out, but ended up fairly weak for the PNW.

 

Another time in recent years where it definitely got cold enough for you guys to get snow, but just didn't come together.

Low. Solar.

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Obviously it drives you insane to see people talking about cold troughing. And it's just not healthy. Normal people don't care whether there's discussion about cold troughing versus possibly just average temperatures. Like 5 degrees is really going to matter that much to everyday folk! LOL!

 

 

Not at all... I would pay $1,000 right now to have genuine snow and cold for the week between Christmas and New Years.   Would be totally worth it... like paying to take a trip somewhere.

 

I love cold troughing this time of year.   About as much as I love ridging in the summer.

 

You are not taking into account my seasonal preferences!    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Please, before I just start banning people, if you don't have anything to contribute to the conversation that isnt either constructive, an observation, or well intentioned, then don't say anything at all.

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I wouldn't call January 2013 "Arctic" at all, at least not until after the 20th when the big blast slid east of the Rockies. The earlier airmass that came down over the intermountain west had no arctic connection..

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My son is going through skiing withdrawl right now... I have linked him to all the models on his iPhone now so he can stop killing the messenger when it comes to the prospects for mountain snow (i.e. me)!   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The PNW has until mid-January to score, as a Niño-esque pattern will likely return in late January..just a heads up..

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Not at all... I would pay $1,000 right now to have genuine snow and cold for the week between Christmas and New Years.   Would be totally worth it... like paying to take a trip somewhere.

 

I love cold troughing this time of year.   About as much as I love ridging in the summer.

 

You are not taking into account my seasonal preferences!    

 

I am convinced that you like the cold and snow in the Winter, but in all fairness, this is the fifth year that you have complained.

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I am convinced that you like the cold and snow in the Winter, but in all fairness, this is the fifth year that you have complained.

 

 

About what?   I was the one guaranteeing the arctic outbreak around Christmas last year.    Could not have been more wrong!

 

I am not blaming anyone... just pointing out something it seems we do every year.

 

I like the chances right now in about 10 days.    Just have been burned numerous years in a row.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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About what?   I was the one guaranteeing the arctic outbreak around Christmas last year.    Could not have been more wrong!

 

I am not blaming anyone... just pointing out something it seems we do every year.

 

I like the chances right now in about 10 days.    Just have been burned numerous years in a row.

 

Is that interesting?  Cold weather freaks wanting cold air during the coldest time of the year?  Weird, wacko stuff, man...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I wouldn't call January 2013 "Arctic" at all, at least not until after the 20th when the big blast slid east of the Rockies. The earlier airmass that came down over the intermountain west had no arctic connection..

 

Yeah, we didn't have a real arctic tap there. Light offshore flow at its peak.

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Is that interesting?  Cold weather freaks wanting cold air during the coldest time of the year?  Weird, wacko stuff, man...

 

 

For me its also that the week between Christmas and New Years is the best of the entire cold season for obvious reasons... so I become even less objective!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For me its also that the week between Christmas and New Years is the best of the entire cold season for obvious reasons... so I become even less objective!

 

The days start getting longer a week from today!  AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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My god.... who cares.

 

You allowing what is said on here to affect you emotionally is weirder than what is talked about.

 

I have just simply stopped paying attention to him.  Just nothing but sour grapes this year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Jan 2013 was the one winter I was really bullish on an early January Arctic event for the West. It worked out, but ended up fairly weak for the PNW.

 

Another time in recent years where it definitely got cold enough for you guys to get snow, but just didn't come together.

 

It was certainly cold enough.  I got an inch or so.  We just needed more moisture.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I have just simply stopped paying attention to him.  Just nothing but sour grapes this year.

 

Sour grapes?   Can you tell me about what?   :lol:  

 

Awesome summer, fall, and now early winter.   I am running on 10 months of getting everything I hoped for weatherwise.    Does not get better.   And 2013 was awesome as well.

 

2014 has sealed itself has being one of my favorite weather years in my life.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I wouldn't call January 2013 "Arctic" at all, at least not until after the 20th when the big blast slid east of the Rockies. The earlier airmass that came down over the intermountain west had no arctic connection..

 

Eh, I'm not going to argue about it, but I think some of the numbers in the West speak for themselves. 

 

Spokane: two sub-20 highs

Boise: 17/2

Salt Lake City: 14/-2

Denver: 11/-5

 

Those aren't numbers that happen without Arctic air.

Low. Solar.

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