Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 41 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 12Z Euro -- Β Yep I'll take this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Current thinking for my area from GRR NWS.Β 2-5 with the surface low.Β 4-7 inches with the LES Friday with 40mph winds gusts.Β Β Β Let's hope this pans out!Β I could see a couple feet drifts with this.Β Snowpack here is at 3" and looks to hold throughout thursday.Β Β Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 18z NAM ups the game with a foot for MBY. Β God bless that piece of junk. Β 3km also jumps way NW from the 12z run. We need fresh snow to reach the full potential of the polar vortex.Β 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 First WSW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 WOW...DMX talking nearly impossible travel and life threatening conditionsΒ The upper short wave will deepen and close off as it passes over far eastern Iowa and towards Lake Michigan. The surface low will quickly deepen as this occurs with a tightening pressure gradient developing on the backside, which will include much of Iowa. These facts combined with strong cold advection wrapping in on the backside of the surface low suggest this system may very well outperform and numerical guidance may play catchup right up until Thursday. Some of this can be seen today with the increased QPF and mixed layers winds. The other concern regarding the increased precipitation amounts is the strong low level moisture advection from the Gulf concurrent with a strong Pacific mid-level moisture feed. The low pressure trajectory moving NNE may lead to more residence time of precipitation across Iowa. Mixed layer winds wind at or above mid 40 kts with strong cold advection and steep low level lapse rates will lead to near max momentum transport of these peak winds to the surface in addition to the isallobaric component. The wind is a given with this event. There is a deep snow pack in place but may be crusted over in places due to last weekend icing and upcoming warmth and rain ahead of the cold air. Crusted snow will produce a near frictionless surface for blowing of new snow and the crust will likely erode with the strong winds. At this time, biggest concerns will be blizzard conditions with near impossible travel Thursday and Thursday night and falling temperatures with wind chills in the -10 to -20 range. Therefore, any stranded persons could end up in a life threatening situation. Expect headlines to begin tonight and will have further discussions tomorrow. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 DVN pretty low key about Thursday.Β 1-2" for much of the area, up to 3" along Hwy 20.Β Winds increasing.Β They don't seem too concerned.Β Looks like a WWA event.Β Stark contrast from DMX.Β Β 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: WOW...DMX talking nearly impossible travel and life threatening conditionsΒ The upper short wave will deepen and close off as it passes over far eastern Iowa and towards Lake Michigan. The surface low will quickly deepen as this occurs with a tightening pressure gradient developing on the backside, which will include much of Iowa. These facts combined with strong cold advection wrapping in on the backside of the surface low suggest this system may very well outperform and numerical guidance may play catchup right up until Thursday. Some of this can be seen today with the increased QPF and mixed layers winds. The other concern regarding the increased precipitation amounts is the strong low level moisture advection from the Gulf concurrent with a strong Pacific mid-level moisture feed. The low pressure trajectory moving NNE may lead to more residence time of precipitation across Iowa. Mixed layer winds wind at or above mid 40 kts with strong cold advection and steep low level lapse rates will lead to near max momentum transport of these peak winds to the surface in addition to the isallobaric component. The wind is a given with this event. There is a deep snow pack in place but may be crusted over in places due to last weekend icing and upcoming warmth and rain ahead of the cold air. Crusted snow will produce a near frictionless surface for blowing of new snow and the crust will likely erode with the strong winds. At this time, biggest concerns will be blizzard conditions with near impossible travel Thursday and Thursday night and falling temperatures with wind chills in the -10 to -20 range. Therefore, any stranded persons could end up in a life threatening situation. Expect headlines to begin tonight and will have further discussions tomorrow. I'm liking this! Never want anyone hurt, but this sounds like it could be really interesting! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, bud2380 said: DVN pretty low key about Thursday.Β 1-2" for much of the area, up to 3" along Hwy 20.Β Winds increasing.Β They don't seem too concerned.Β Looks like a WWA event.Β Stark contrast from DMX.Β Β This morning Ervin was all in. Must depend on forecaster on desk. Getting conflicting signals each package. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Β (1/1: 6.4") Β Β Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Tracking 3 different weather events that might affect my area.Β Β 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Tracking 3 different weather events that might affect my area.Β Man, the sub is really hopping at the moment with several active threads. Looks like a lot of active days coming up... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The GFS continues to like the south-and-strong scenario.Β Hopefully, it'll still be showing this in 24 hours. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 MPX wrote a novel that basically says, "yeah, we don't know what's going to happen." Β That's not a knock on them at all. Grab your popcorn and some firewood and watch the show unfold. They did toss out the B word, but we'll see.Β 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS Β 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 I donβt disagree with the DVN, though it definitely seems like their line of thinking is on the most conservative side of things at this point. That probably tends to be right more often than not, so itβll be interesting to see how this transpires.Β 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 NOAA: Latest model consensus supports event precipitation totals on the order of .25 to .30 inch Thursday night. Tempered QPF a touch for the Thursday afternoon period as blended dataset seems a little early especially for central to eastern portions of the cwa. Really tricky figuring out precipitation type because of the very strong low level jet exceeding 45 knots that will be directed right at the cwa. This in another one of those moving parts. High wet bulb cooling potential and late day timing is expected to result in precipitation beginning in the form of snow before transitioning to a mix. The likelihood to changing over will be dependent on the warm air advection at the surface, or in the lowest 2000 ft. Cannot rule out a rain snow mix, but if had to pick right now, suspect that much of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow (higher precipitation rates combined with wet bulb cooling potential). 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9"Β BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 local Met saying 3-5" maybe a 7" here or there up here...we shall see i guess...also said it would be light and fluffy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 hours ago, Stacsh said: Quite the wound up low.Β It could be low 30's in NMI while near 10Β degrees in Chicago Friday.Β Β Β 2 hours ago, Stacsh said: Current thinking for my area from GRR NWS.Β 2-5 with the surface low.Β 4-7 inches with the LES Friday with 40mph winds gusts.Β Β Β Let's hope this pans out!Β I could see a couple feet drifts with this.Β Snowpack here is at 3" and looks to hold throughout thursday.Β Β Can't really remember the last time we had this kind of bombing SLP taking this (or any) track during the winter months. Trying to draw a picture of this in my mind's eye is proving a bit challenging tbh. Which is a good thing. I'd say that the Hybrid storm during late January of 2019 was probably a good comparison for areas NW of here. We got the initial system snow but the following PV-driven lake effect bliz screwed us when the winds never got fully west but remained WSW. Have fears with a repeat of that for here this time as well. Nonetheless, this has an actual deepening SLP and the low baro should really provide for some great lift and dynamics. Friday will rock for those fortunate enough to get a favorable fetch off the lake. I expect to ride my familiar fringe yet again. Quote --Significant impacts from wind and snow Friday-- One of the recent model trends is for a deeper and slightly farther east sfc low track late Thursday night and Friday. Most guidance suggests a 980 mb or slightly lower sfc low centered over nrn Lwr MI on Friday morning. Cold air will rush in quickly early Friday morning with the sfc cold frontal passage and winds will increase dramatically out of the west. EC ensemble wind gust average is about 50 mph at MKG Friday, and near 40 mph inland. The arrival of H8 air -15C or colder on Friday will crank up the lake effect and additional, possibly significant, accumulations are expected. Current thinking is for another 4-7" near and west of Hwy 131 and 1-3" to the east. The strong winds will lead to considerable blowing and drifting with whiteout conditions and wind chills falling to near zero. Needless to say, travel conditions on Friday will become hazardous to even dangerous. Β 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.3Β Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Β (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = 53.1"Β Avg = 45.0"Β (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β Avg = 49.7"Β (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 41 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Β Can't really remember the last time we had this kind of bombing SLP taking this (or any) track during the winter months. Trying to draw a picture of this in my mind's eye is proving a bit challenging tbh. Which is a good thing. I'd say that the Hybrid storm during late January of 2019 was probably a good comparison for areas NW of here. We got the initial system snow but the following PV-driven lake effect bliz screwed us when the winds never got fully west but remained WSW. Have fears with a repeat of that for here this time as well. Nonetheless, this has an actual deepening SLP and the low baro should really provide for some great lift and dynamics. Friday will rock for those fortunate enough to get a favorable fetch off the lake. I expect to ride my familiar fringe yet again. Β My sweet spot is due west or WSW wind. I should do well with how strong it may beΒ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 58 minutes ago, tStacsh said: My sweet spot is due west or WSW wind. I should do well with how strong it may beΒ 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Β Can't really remember the last time we had this kind of bombing SLP taking this (or any) track during the winter months. Trying to draw a picture of this in my mind's eye is proving a bit challenging tbh. Which is a good thing. I'd say that the Hybrid storm during late January of 2019 was probably a good comparison for areas NW of here. We got the initial system snow but the following PV-driven lake effect bliz screwed us when the winds never got fully west but remained WSW. Have fears with a repeat of that for here this time as well. Nonetheless, this has an actual deepening SLP and the low baro should really provide for some great lift and dynamics. Friday will rock for those fortunate enough to get a favorable fetch off the lake. I expect to ride my familiar fringe yet again. Β Kzoo does well with NW and WNW I believe. How do yall think the lake effect for Sunday-Monday looks? Better than Friday? Man I may have to call in sick and weenie it up on friday lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 00z HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 NAM back SE from 12/18z runsΒ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, Money said: NAM back SE from 12/18z runsΒ 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 00z 3k NAM similar to the 12k.Β I expect it to continue to flop around for another 24 hours. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 00z RDPS 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 While the 12k NAM and RGEM both have a stout WAA "thump" snow swinging thru the Mitt from SW to NE, there are significant difference for my county. The RGEM does not really have a strong southern SLP and focuses on the northern SLP. It's temp profile keeps snow the primary p-type way south. half-way thru Indiana actually, giving all the winners with the weekend storm a nice refresher. Treats mby very nicely as well; I need cold here to do well. Β Meanwhile the NAM wraps up the southern SLP and does so quite far west of the more eastward globals. Between that and it's warmer thermals I get a nasty round of ZR instead of thump snow. It does however, keep the LES going and going and going once the SLP bombs into the 970's up across the Straights area and on into western Ontario. Icy! Hope it's just a warm bias: Β 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.3Β Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Β (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = 53.1"Β Avg = 45.0"Β (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β Avg = 49.7"Β (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS remains very strong in E IowaΒ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS is wagon south...maybe not.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 00z GFS 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Looks good up here...just need it on the ground not in the models. Snowmobile clubs and news started talking about it today...the whole northwoods is giddy...finally! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 0z GFS Mean Β 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 updated locals...The first one is probably one of the best meteorologists in the midwest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 0z Canadian to 60 hours.Β 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 hours ago, Madtown said: First WSW! That is insane....for the season?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, gabel23 said: That is insane....for the season?! yep first of the season in North Central WI. Just craziness. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Solid consensus on the 00z runs for at least a 2-4" event for CR/IC followed by a period of blowing. I do wonder if we see headlines posted later tonight. DMX said they planned on it, but DVN cant seem to decide if they like the storm or not. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Β (1/1: 6.4") Β Β Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, hlcater said: Solid consensus on the 00z runs for at least a 2-4" event for CR/IC followed by a period of blowing. I do wonder if we see headlines posted later tonight. DMX said they planned on it, but DVN cant seem to decide if they like the storm or not. DmxΒ gonna be late to the table again?Β Β Looks not another plowable event here.Β Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 00z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Β Β Β '21-22: 27.1"Β Β Β '20-21: 52.5"Β Β Β '19-20: 36.2"Β Β Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β Β Β Β '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2-4β still seems like a good bet here. Though wouldnβt be surprised with isolated 5-6β reports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 hours ago, Madtown said: First WSW! I haven't had one since 2018. What's yer beef? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.3Β Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Β (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = 53.1"Β Avg = 45.0"Β (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β Avg = 49.7"Β (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.