Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Totally believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 This run is nuts. Lol. Throw it out! Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Thanks for editing the post Tim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I am trying to remember the model evolution with the second big snowstorm in February 2019 that pounded Eugene. I remember being convinced it was going to end up right over Seattle and the suppressed solutions won the day. And I think it was the ECMWF that was too far north initially. yep. Wasn't that the one where you were on vacation maybe or whatever and you told your kid he was gonna be missing school cause you assumed northern track and then it went south and crushed both his and my hopes and dreams and also TWL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 The fact that the GFS isn’t going all out north mode is encouraging for prolong sustained cold. Even if it’s doing goofus things. Like I said before, I’d trade in less snow for more cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Regional event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Total snow from Wednesday through Saturday at 1 p.m. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Low just stalls out totally shredded by east winds. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I am trying to remember the model evolution with the second big snowstorm in February 2019 that pounded Eugene. I remember being convinced it was going to end up right over Seattle and the suppressed solutions won the day. And I think it was the ECMWF that was too far north initially. That was one of the times I was counting on the north trend to rescue PDX but the euro did cave to the GFS in the end and the low stayed way to the south and it was a southern OR special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Totally believable Major accumulations west valley with upsloping against the coast range. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Good Lord 1 1 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Then add to that a massive earthquake which could happen on a 75 degree sunny day, or when there is 2 feet of snow and 10 degrees and no power...Better to be prepared!! 2001 Nisqually quake I lost two bottles of whisky!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, ..... said: come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket Main thing is that the lows aren’t on a northward trend. That’s the important takeaway. 3 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, ..... said: come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket Agreed but usually the uncle is doing crazy things 10+ days would not before day 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Low just stalls out totally shredded by east winds. Gonna need that low to move further north as it occludes to avoid the easterly gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: As long as we can score 2-3 inches over the next couple days in the Puget Sound area, I'd happily send the rest of the snow to our Portland neighbors if it means we can all maintain the cold better. 18z GFS looks pretty dang nice to me! I need a foot minimum! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, ..... said: come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket Not that simple in this situation given that all the runs of all the models have been flailing. Sometimes the 18Z GFS picks up on something new and it becomes the trend. Sometimes. 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: That was one of the times I was counting on the north trend to rescue PDX but the euro did cave to the GFS in the end and the low stayed way to the south and it was a southern OR special. My buddy in Central Oregon got about 3’ in 2 days with that system. We actually did pretty well on the northern edge of the precip shield, but nothing like places further south. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Oh, this is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Gonna need that low to move further north as it occludes to avoid the easterly gradient. Lol I’d rather it stays where it is...but we will see what happens it still more runs to come. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 These are daytime temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Omegaraptor said: These are daytime temps Too warm over my house...Dump it. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, ..... said: come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket He's all lathered up for the Super Bowl. Then he'll beat up his wife with his Dale Earnhardt memorial mug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 If the 18z verified, pdx would go from an F to an A+ For this winter 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: These are daytime temps Low single digits for me with snow.....lol. I would be in heaven. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Seattle finally get's some of the action now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 This run is friggin insane for PDX. Mega snow, 15 degree high temp Saturday, oh and PDX-DLS of at least -16mb. Blizzard and damaging east winds. WHICH would be real bad to have power outages in bitter temps! Oh and let's not call people an idiot if they happen to post a model image duplicate if someone else did so prior. Let's not do that. C'MON!!!! PLEASE let the EURO dig the arctic trough south tonight. PLEASE! 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 22 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Thursday through Monday... 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Alright! Good looking GFS run. A good blend of recent GFS and ECMWF runs. Phew! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Thursday through Monday... I'm okay with this. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: This run is friggin insane for PDX. Mega snow, 15 degree high temp Saturday, oh and PDX-DLS of at least -16mb. Blizzard and damaging east winds. WHICH would be real bad to have power outages in bitter temps! Oh and let's not call people an idiot if they happen to post a model image duplicate if someone else did so prior. Let's not do that. C'MON!!!! PLEASE let the EURO dig the arctic trough south tonight. PLEASE! 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 22 minutes I really like this run! Big stuff is still on the table. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hmm, perhaps PDX is still in the game? 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: This run is friggin insane for PDX. Mega snow, 15 degree high temp Saturday, oh and PDX-DLS of at least -16mb. Blizzard and damaging east winds. WHICH would be real bad to have power outages in bitter temps! Oh and let's not call people an idiot if they happen to post a model image duplicate if someone else did so prior. Let's not do that. C'MON!!!! PLEASE let the EURO dig the arctic trough south tonight. PLEASE! 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 22 minutes Portland would be ground zero for the Weather Channel, Mike Seidel or Jim Cantore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hail here or sleet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 The elephant in the room still is KING EURO!!!! What's going to happen guys? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hard to complain about this 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: Hmm, perhaps PDX is still in the game? It never left the game...every possibility still on the table. I think this will all work out well for everyone but we will see. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Word of warning... the 18Z EPS only goes out through hour 90 which is now 4 a.m. Thursday morning. Don't expect much new information from the ECMWF until 10 p.m. tonight. 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Timmy said: Hard to complain about this Looks good for everybody. Cold lovers and snow lovers can both rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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