January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

It's always interesting when AK does manage extreme cold while the PNW torches the entire winter. Classics like 1905-06 and 1933-34 come to mind, and more recently 1999-00.

 

Yeah, that's certainly happened during some Ninas in particular. Though in the case of 1999-00, it wasn't really a torchy winter for the western lowlands, just a lack of real cold. Lots of rainy 44/36 days that winter.

[Front Ranger]

Amazing how the hashtag craze has permeated the forum all of the sudden. They certainly are pithy.

 

#ironictrends

[Front Ranger]

This place would be more interesting if more people made winter predictions.  I can see why they don't, as they get ridiculed for being wrong.

 

 

I usually do, but lost interest in the forum until this winter arrived. 

 

If I had, everyone knows I would have factored in the high +PDO...

[snow_wizard]

Is this winter officially a Nino?

It looks like it will end up an official Nino with this current WWB and SOI crash. The winter looks like it will end up being a weak Nino.

[snow_wizard]

I usually do, but lost interest in the forum until this winter arrived. 

 

If I had, everyone knows I would have factored in the high +PDO...

Nobody could have guessed it would be THIS bad. The current pattern is just painful. At this point I would just be satisfied to see something other than an obscene upper level torch.

[snow_wizard]

Euro weeklies don't seem to offer much in the way of hope as we head through the first 3 weeks of February.  Is there any chance we avoid paying for this come April-June?

There is certainly a chance. I remember in 1991-92 a horrible winter like this led to a total torch of a spring also. The fact that we torched almost all of last year makes me wonder how long it can continue though.

[snow_wizard]

I would say this winter has a good chance of ending up in legendarily bad status. The models are absolutely horrific right now.

[Front Ranger]

Nobody could have guessed it would be THIS bad. The current pattern is just painful. At this point I would just be satisfied to see something other than an obscene upper level torch.

 

This month does look like it will end up as one of the ridgiest Januaries on record for the West Coast. Sure, no one could have expected that.

 

That being said, the closest PDO matches for this late summer/early fall in the PNW: 2002, 1997, 1993, 1987, 1986, 1976, 1957.

 

Or, if you just want to look at Octobers with +1 or higher PDO since 1950, you have: 2014, 1997, 1993, 1987, 1986, 1980, 1979, 1976, 1969, and 1957. For the most part, very ridgy winters and snowfall duds followed.

[Front Ranger]

I would say this winter has a good chance of ending up in legendarily bad status. The models are absolutely horrific right now.

 

It depends on how you define "legendarily bad". Even if it torches through March, all the cold lows seen in November and late December tops a number of terrible winters that never even managed close to that.

[snow_wizard]

It depends on how you define "legendarily bad". Even if it torches through March, all the cold lows seen in November and late December tops a number of terrible winters that never even managed close to that.

When looking at the magnitude of this warm event for duration (began in March and still going) and the incredible lack of low temps of 32 or below for the season it's terrible. Outside of those couple of cold snaps it's the worst I've seen. October is one of my favorite months and it was an absolute waste this season. Then you have the fact it's highly unlikely we will see anything worthwhile for the rest of the winter. Even 2002-03 had a chilly Feb. I would easily call this the worst winter of the 21st century and that is really saying something.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Time to find your sunglasses this weekend...

Definately--and probably some sun screen as well.  My wife will have me out pulling weeds on Sunday.

[MossMan]

It depends on how you define "legendarily bad". Even if it torches through March, all the cold lows seen in November and late December tops a number of terrible winters that never even managed close to that.

Yeah November saved this winter for sure, I remember years with no temps below 26 degrees and zero snowfall. I had nearly 3" that stayed on the ground and on the trees for a week. Temps in the lower teens for lows and mid to upper 20's for highs. Not horrible, and we still have all of Feb. I remember things looking quite bleak even in mid Feb and then getting blasted a few weeks later in 2011. I want to say we received a foot and a half of snow and sub freezing highs for several days!

[snow_wizard]

I really think this has a chance of ending up being a nightmare like the last half of 1939 through most of 1942. Really no reason to expect any improvement with the near certainty the Nino is going to re-intensify now. It's extremely rare to have a year long torch and then have it followed by a strengthening El Nino.

[Front Ranger]

When looking at the magnitude of this warm event for duration (began in March and still going) and the incredible lack of low temps of 32 or below for the season it's terrible. Outside of those couple of cold snaps it's the worst I've seen. October is one of my favorite months and it was an absolute waste this season. Then you have the fact it's highly unlikely we will see anything worthwhile for the rest of the winter. Even 2002-03 had a chilly Feb. I would easily call this the worst winter of the 21st century and that is really saying something.

 

Yup, and that's why I think it's too early to say this winter is worst. Just cause the models look terrible now does not mean the rest of the winter will be like January.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah November saved this winter for sure, I remember years with no temps below 26 degrees and zero snowfall. I had nearly 3" that stayed on the ground and on the trees for a week. Temps in the lower teens for lows and mid to upper 20's for highs. Not horrible, and we still have all of Feb. I remember things looking quite bleak even in mid Feb and then getting blasted a few weeks later in 2011. I want to say we received a foot and a half of snow and sub freezing highs for several days!

This is easily headed for being the least number of freezing low temps I've recorded during any season though. This winter is done.

[snow_wizard]

Yup, and that's why I think it's too early to say this winter is worst. Just cause the models look terrible now does not mean the rest of the winter will be like January.

It's over. I would bet on it at this point. I hate this place with a passion.

[antipex]

It's over. I would bet on it at this point. I hate this place with a passion.

 

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

[TT-SEA]

It's over. I would bet on it at this point. I hate this place with a passion.

 

You hate this place because the pattern has been favorable for a western ridge???

 

Odd. 

 

The West Coast is a nice place.

[snow_wizard]

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

I'm definitely working on leaving. Anyone who thinks this climate will ever be satisfying again is going to be bitterly disappointed just like I've been. It's incapable of delivering the kind of winters we used to get.

[Front Ranger]

It's over. I would bet on it at this point. I hate this place with a passion.

 

Time to take a break.

[richard mann]

I'm definitely working on leaving. Anyone who thinks this climate will ever be satisfying again is going to be bitterly disappointed just like I've been. It's incapable of delivering the kind of winters we used to get.

.. hey Jim. (Irrespective.) Fairly obviously the reason that you've elicited the comment above that you have (from "antipex"), is that certainly some people tuned in here, don't want to here—let's just be more plain and simple here—the "down" side of things (particularly.) right now.

 

— With this idea more general in mind, and if speaking more figuratively than literally, I'd even block all of the more extended outlooks and or models projections not more positive from being tacked up here, until things start looking better.+Saying things are looking pretty "rough" out certainly at this point, is my limit.+And should be yours—and everyone else's here regarding what we're seeing more currently.

[snow_wizard]

Time to take a break.

Yeah...like until I'm out of here.

[MikeBC]

I definitely understand how Jim feels about the climate here in the PNW. It is not worth the time to wait for snow to come in all the time. I haven't felt that way all the time when I lived in Calgary for about one year. We (snow lovers) are just living in the wrong place. It is not easy for most of us to move away because of work, family, and friends. The best thing about this climate is summer for sure. Try to look at a half full glass instead of empty.

[chinook]

I'm definitely working on leaving. Anyone who thinks this climate will ever be satisfying again is going to be bitterly disappointed just like I've been. It's incapable of delivering the kind of winters we used to get.

Wow! We aren't that far removed from near historic to historic snowfall and cold. Cycles my friend and the fact this is the western PNW. This isn't ND, MN, ME ...muchless Idaho.

 

I can't fathom why this depresses you so much...live life for what it gives you.

 

Moving...ha. Frankly, I think no matter where you live you won't be satisfied. It would definitely suck to move and that particular area ends up going through a period of drought and warmth.

 

Honestly, I think you bit too hard on Weather Phil's prediction for this winter. I'm not sure why...you probably know as much and certainly more about the weather in PNW than Phil.

 

Anyhoo...passing showers and mild down my way.

[TT-SEA]

I'm definitely working on leaving. Anyone who thinks this climate will ever be satisfying again is going to be bitterly disappointed just like I've been. It's incapable of delivering the kind of winters we used to get.

 

 

Just a silly statement.

 

On so many levels.

[antipex]

I'm definitely working on leaving. Anyone who thinks this climate will ever be satisfying again is going to be bitterly disappointed just like I've been. It's incapable of delivering the kind of winters we used to get.

 

Well hey, I applaud you for being honest and for trying to take action.

[Dan the Weatherman]

This month does look like it will end up as one of the ridgiest Januaries on record for the West Coast. Sure, no one could have expected that.

 

That being said, the closest PDO matches for this late summer/early fall in the PNW: 2002, 1997, 1993, 1987, 1986, 1976, 1957.

 

Or, if you just want to look at Octobers with +1 or higher PDO since 1950, you have: 2014, 1997, 1993, 1987, 1986, 1980, 1979, 1976, 1969, and 1957. For the most part, very ridgy winters and snowfall duds followed.

It is quite remarkable how ridgy this January has been, especially considering that last January was almost just as ridgy.

 

I really thought with the flip to +PDO that California would have had quite a bit more storminess than last January. Socal did have a decent storm to begin the month, but much of Norcal has been high and dry.

[ShawniganLake]

Doubt it verifies but the 0z gfs shows some cold air pushing into southern BC during the first week of February.

[stuffradio]

I think the GFS is trolling snow_wizard now per the 00z. I would laugh maniacally if that verified.

[wx_statman]

There is certainly a chance. I remember in 1991-92 a horrible winter like this led to a total torch of a spring also. The fact that we torched almost all of last year makes me wonder how long it can continue though.

1992 continued torching all the way into August. The huge trough in late August was the game changer and the following 12 months were dominated by cold anomalies.

[wx_statman]

When looking at the magnitude of this warm event for duration (began in March and still going) and the incredible lack of low temps of 32 or below for the season it's terrible. Outside of those couple of cold snaps it's the worst I've seen. October is one of my favorite months and it was an absolute waste this season. Then you have the fact it's highly unlikely we will see anything worthwhile for the rest of the winter. Even 2002-03 had a chilly Feb. I would easily call this the worst winter of the 21st century and that is really saying something.

2002-03 was worse in my opinion.

[wx_statman]

Yeah November saved this winter for sure, I remember years with no temps below 26 degrees and zero snowfall. I had nearly 3" that stayed on the ground and on the trees for a week. Temps in the lower teens for lows and mid to upper 20's for highs. Not horrible, and we still have all of Feb. I remember things looking quite bleak even in mid Feb and then getting blasted a few weeks later in 2011. I want to say we received a foot and a half of snow and sub freezing highs for several days!

It's very possible that November will end up as the only thing preventing this cold season from joining the ranks of the all time worst...

[HighlandExperience]

Doubt it verifies but the 0z gfs shows some cold air pushing into southern BC during the first week of February.

 

Probably won't happen. 

[pscz1140]

Just noticed that Señor Google and I are the only "members" logged on right now (in this thread). I can't remember the last time that's happened before 2 a.m.

 

Much like the stock market, things don't usually turn around until there's complete capitulation. Things are looking up!

[snow_wizard]

Wow! We aren't that far removed from near historic to historic snowfall and cold. Cycles my friend and the fact this is the western PNW. This isn't ND, MN, ME ...muchless Idaho.

 

I can't fathom why this depresses you so much...live life for what it gives you.

 

Moving...ha. Frankly, I think no matter where you live you won't be satisfied. It would definitely suck to move and that particular area ends up going through a period of drought and warmth.

 

Honestly, I think you bit too hard on Weather Phil's prediction for this winter. I'm not sure why...you probably know as much and certainly more about the weather in PNW than Phil.

 

Anyhoo...passing showers and mild down my way.

We haven't a decent snow here in 3 years now.

 

I know for a fact a climate where it's consistently cold and snowy will be much better for me. It's gotten to the point where I get way too down when nothing is going on and way too keyed up when there is even a hint of snow in the forecast. In a consistently cold and snowy area I will be on much more of an even keel.

[snow_wizard]

1992 continued torching all the way into August. The huge trough in late August was the game changer and the following 12 months were dominated by cold anomalies.

I do think there will be a huge flip when it finally happens. It could be a long time though.

[Parksvillewx]

00z Euro is COLD!........for the east. *sigh*

[Deweydog]

Gripes!

[snow_wizard]

00z Euro is COLD!........for the east. *sigh*

Yeah...we are in a pattern that's extremely hard to break out of now. The Euro does look good for a massive inversion here though. That's about our best hope for below normal temps in the foreseeable future.

[Phil]

00z Euro is COLD!........for the east. *sigh*

Hate it when storms miss my area and slam New England. The lack of precip this winter has been lol worthy.