February 2014 in the PNW

[epiceast]

00z could continue trending north.

[HighlandExperience]

00z could continue trending north.

 

Everything is riding on the 00z

[snow_wizard]

I swear to god if I leave the poker room and walk outside and see 6+ inches on the ground I am going to s**t a block of ice and then give props to Jim 

 

I'm not saying this is the time we will get hit.  My point is if we get missed this time things will even out later this winter or in the next couple of years.  It's not normal for us to have two major cold waves in the same winter and not get snow from either one.  It will even out eventually.

[Deweydog]

I'm not saying this is the time we will get hit.  My point is if we get missed this time things will even out later this winter or in the next couple of years.  It's not normal for us to have two major cold waves in the same winter and get snow from neither.  It will even out eventually.

 

I agree.  It's all psychological, but it tends to work out.  Whoever gets missed the second time around this year will have some a considerable cache of hard-earned karma points in the bank.  

[luminen]

26F now at EUG with a dew point at 11F (12F an hour ago).

[pscz1140]

I am going to light a pile of nuts on fire if Seattle doesn't get at least an inch by Monday.

[whitechristmas]

Just noticed a LOT of people online...all waiting for the EURO. It can't fail us now!
 

[brody]

Just noticed a LOT of people online...all waiting for the EURO. It can't fail us now!

 

It Will 

[Weather101]

I am going to light a pile of nuts on fire if Seattle doesn't get at least an inch by Monday.

I'm lighting my nuts on fire if I don't get snow

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just noticed a LOT of people online...all waiting for the EURO. It can't fail us now!

 

It's like the Seahawks parade in here.

[Weather101]

00z could continue trending north.

How north

[epiceast]

How north

Not far enough to rain unfortunately

[Weather101]

21 F

[FroYoBro]

The Euro is beautiful for Portland. Every model besides the NAM gives us at least 2 inches. Looking great. 

[whitechristmas]

Will Mark N. see the EURO before his weathercast at about 1040pm?

[FroYoBro]

The Euro is beautiful for Portland. Every model besides the NAM gives us at least 2 inches. Looking great. 

Can you delete posts on this site?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW the EURO has a tendency to underdo precip.

[GHweatherChris]

The Euro is beautiful for Portland. Every model, but the NAM gives us at least 2 inches. Looking great. 

The Euro isn't out yet for 00z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the GFS/Canadian are the way to go right now. I think the NAM is to far south, I think the EURO is a little to far north.

[HighlandExperience]

The Euro isn't out yet for 00z.

 

He is just speaking prophetically .

[Snow]

From what I read about models, in Winter, use the GFS if your 1 day out. Either way ECMWF will do just fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[BLI snowman]

 

Definitely sticking to its northward guns.

[GHweatherChris]

Still gives me a glimmer of hope.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Definitely watch for higher-than-forecast snowfall totals along east-facing slopes to the north of this thing if it can get any sort of spin together as it comes ashore tomorrow. Back in January 2012 the low was pushed well south of here and models showed nothing for Vancouver Island even 12 hours out, but Victoria and a large part of the east side of the Island ended up with 6-8". This time everything is much further south and there's nothing like the Strait of Georgia to help out south of here but I could still see moisture riding further north around the low bringing light snow up to perhaps Olympia tomorrow. Too far north for that to be much benefit up here. The best we can probably hope for are some Strait-effect flurries and stronger cut-off/strengthening of the low on Saturday/Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would take the EURO though even though it gives me a bit less snow, gives more people snow! That said I'd go with the GFS/Canadian.

[HighlandExperience]

Still gives me a glimmer of hope.

 

The Euro right now is the best thing we got going for us. 

[epiceast]

Definitely watch for higher-than-forecast snowfall totals along east-facing slopes to the north of this thing if it can get any sort of spin together as it comes ashore tomorrow. Back in January 2012 the low was pushed well south of here and models showed nothing for Vancouver Island even 12 hours out, but Victoria and a large part of the east side of the Island ended up with 6-8". This time everything is much further south and there's nothing like the Strait of Georgia to help out south of here but I could still see moisture riding further north around the low bringing light snow up to perhaps Olympia tomorrow. Too far north for that to be much benefit up here. The best we can probably hope for are some Strait-effect flurries and stronger cut-off/strengthening of the low on Saturday/Sunday.

Hood canal snowstorm... There is almost never an event where Hood canal doesn't score.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just heard the EURO gives EUG 7.4" through Saturday, with nothing less than 4" north to Longview.

[Gradient Keeper]

I would go with a EURO/GFS blend if I were forecasting... Really though this is unfolding in real-time now, so we almost don't need the models the next 48 hours.

 

Water Vapor Loop
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
All eyes now point offshore and what’s developing. Now seeing development near 134.5 W, 50 N and obvious darkening denoting cycologenesis. Can see the moist baroclinic band setting up offshore 44-48 N, 127 – 133 W extending towards the stalled arctic boundary W-E or ESE orientation trailing over the central-southern Willamette Valley. My thoughts are this is about to become a major development with a band of snow developing and this moisture continuously feeding or streaming inland along this baroclinic boundary. Now we watch and see exactly where this band sets up as well as offshore development with the low. IF everything goes right this could be a HUGE snow storm (1 foot PLUS) PDX-SLE.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/4km/NW/WV4NW.GIF

[TT-SEA]

This has to be the worst NAM performance within 24 hours that I have ever seen.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF brings some snow all the way to Mt. Vernon tomorrow night.

 

And is still almost totally dry the entire weekend.     Amazing how the weekend has changed.

 

850mb temps warm up considerably on the ECMWF over the weekend though... even with no precip.     

[HighlandExperience]

ECMWF brings some snow all the way to Mt. Vernon tomorrow night.

 

And is still almost totally dry the entire weekend.     Amazing how the weekend has changed.

 

Ya seems things have reversed a bit (although there is still time for things to change later this weekend). Both the Canadian and the ECMWF make our best chance of snow sooner, rather than later it seems. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A Blizzard Warning is about to be posted for the Western Gorge.

 

Winter Storm Warnings are about to go up for the Central Willamette Valley, N. Coast Range, PDX Metro area, N. Cascade Foothills, and Central Gorge.

[Skagit Weather]

ECMWF brings some snow all the way to Mt. Vernon tomorrow night.

 

And is still almost totally dry the entire weekend.     Amazing how the weekend has changed.

 

850mb temps warm up considerably on the ECMWF over the weekend though... even with no precip.     

Yep, about 15 miles north as compared to the 12z with very light precip extending up to about Everett I would say. ECMWF tends to under forecast precipitation so I can perhaps see a glimmer of hope of getting 1/4-1/2" if the models continue to trend slightly north. Also has some light snow up here on Monday morning.

[Jesse]

A Blizzard Warning is about to be posted for the Western Gorge.

 

Winter Storm Warnings are about to go up for the Central Willamette Valley, N. Coast Range, PDX Metro area, N. Cascade Foothills, and Central Gorge.

 

Whaaaa?!?!

[FroYoBro]

A Blizzard Warning is about to be posted for the Western Gorge.

 

Winter Storm Warnings are about to go up for the Central Willamette Valley, N. Coast Range, PDX Metro area, N. Cascade Foothills, and Central Gorge.

How do you know that?

[epiceast]

Euro stays as snow at least until Monday evening for Seattle.

[Deweydog]

This has to be the worst NAM performance within 24 hours that I have ever seen.

 

Could be the best.  We don't know yet.  

[paulb/eugene]

How do you know that?

see pdx afd 10:30pm