GHweatherChris Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: What’s your honest take on this situation ? There's vomit on his sweater already.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: Ya. Kuchera shows nothing and is obviously more reasonable. Not sure whats up with the 10:1 map other than some serious temp gradients and resolution? I'll let someone else poke around the soundings. 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: 18z Euro vs 12z Euro - Snowfall - Hour 90 hmmmmmm me thinks those shades of grey are darker...not lighter? I'll let everyone know if we get 6". 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'll let everyone know if we get 6". Ewww Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 We are going to get a sense on how the ECMWF is doing in a few hours... its shows some snow tomorrow morning. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: What’s your honest take on this situation ? Noisy, but most solutions indicate a decaying system that doesn’t have much going for it in the left exit region. 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We are going to get a sense on how the ECMWF is doing in a few hours... its shows some snow tomorrow morning. I am somewhat befuddled. The metro area dewpoints stand at 39-41 degrees fahrenheit. Now unless there is some major drying overnight that is unbeknownst to me or some crazy wet bulb cooling about to commence I am just lost...... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We are going to get a sense on how the ECMWF is doing in a few hours... its shows some snow tomorrow morning. 925 temps +4 to +6, 850s -1 or so currently, ya nope. The euro has to be struggling with initialization. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 this still just doesnt feel right. I wouldnt be surprised to see BigLow back on GFS or Euro. I could be/am likely totally wrong. But this feels like model noise ( as @Deweydog says) that the longer range runs were actually on the mark for. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Typical NWS Seattle... Always waiting till they can see the whites of the eyes before issuing any warnings. The fact they haven't issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the snow the Euro's showing is befuddling, and frankly endangering public safety. Do they not know what a half inch of snow does to the city? If only they were more like NWS Portland... It'd be a full on Winter Storm Warning and the alarms would be blazing. Way more fun. At least Les Schwab can make a killing in the Portland metro area much more frequently than with their Puget sound dealers. You need these studs for the incoming skiff of snow. Regardless of how it ruins the asphalt...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 Looks like 48/40 today. Currently sitting at 40. It's definitely going to be our coldest weekend of the fall. Tomorrow and Sunday look good for sub-45 highs. GFS does get us close to snow Sunday morning. I wouldn't be shocked to see flakes in the air. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 6 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS control run shows something like that in 2 weeks: Coldest anomalies right over Timmysupercell. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 3 hours ago, AbbyJr said: The Euro weeklies control run. Lock it in! That’s the type of pattern that could trigger a SSW. NW-Pacific low, Nordic ridge/-NAO. Wave activity flux machine. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 41 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Typical NWS Seattle... Always waiting till they can see the whites of the eyes before issuing any warnings. The fact they haven't issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the snow the Euro's showing is befuddling, and frankly endangering public safety. Do they not know what a half inch of snow does to the city? If only they were more like NWS Portland... It'd be a full on Winter Storm Warning and the alarms would be blazing. Way more fun. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/stressed-out-in-seattle-were-the-most-anxious-major-metro-in-the-u-s-new-census-data-shows/ No surprise to me at all. I have always thought of Seattle as being a panicky city. Where the local news goes wall to wall with coverage of a half inch of snow, where the weather forecasters put "brrrr" signs whenever the temp goes below 40, and when the lead story so often is 'Rain is moving in . . .:" I always thought it would be hilarious to see a minor earthquake during a snowstorm in Seattle. The city wouldn't know what to do with itself. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: We are going to get a sense on how the ECMWF is doing in a few hours... its shows some snow tomorrow morning. Must be the upgrade… tweaks are needed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s the type of pattern that could trigger a SSW. NW-Pacific low, Nordic ridge/-NAO. Wave activity flux machine. That first week to 10 days of December is historically pretty good for us in terms of cold snaps. Not only have we had some really big cold snaps like 1932, 1972, 2009, 2013 in that period, we've had a lot of chilly/cold shots that portended bigger things later on, 1992, 2016 being more recent examples of such. But we saw it in 1956 and 1968 as well. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s the type of pattern that could trigger a SSW. NW-Pacific low, Nordic ridge/-NAO. Wave activity flux machine. I would have thought that type of pattern would be a result of a SSW, not a trigger for one but perhaps it can be both a result and a trigger? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 10 hours ago, MossMan said: Major dumpage currently. Moss, we had snow in Stanwood today in 2017. How much did you get, if you remember? Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 4 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Anybody trying to do a forum meet up this holiday season?? Hmu and I’ll create a group chat in the dm’s on here I kind of like the mystery element of not knowing what everyone looks like !?! Kind of like RentonHillTC gig but different https://seattle.craigslist.org/d/missed-connections/search/mis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: I kind of like the mystery element of not knowing what everyone looks like !?! Kind of like RentonHillTC gig but different https://seattle.craigslist.org/d/missed-connections/search/mis Watch out for cougars in port orchard https://seattle.craigslist.org/kit/mis/d/bremerton-cute-young-man-on-lund/7404164277.html 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Moss, we had snow in Stanwood today in 2017. How much did you get, if you remember? I was still living west of Smokey Point at that time, we ended up with almost an inch when all was said and done. Here is my FB memories from 4yrs ago today! 6 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: I kind of like the mystery element of not knowing what everyone looks like !?! Kind of like RentonHillTC gig but different https://seattle.craigslist.org/d/missed-connections/search/mis huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Blizzard777 Posted November 6, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 3 hours ago, T-Town said: Nice evening. Quite the show and I was there enjoying it as well! Chilly bike ride after that last band of moisture went through around 3 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: huh? Your responsible for the Craigslist mystery missed connection I now have books marked ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 00z GFS - Tuesday progression - Stronger than 18z, but basically exact same landing in SOOR. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 18z GFS sends it to the OR/CA border again. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 Some bolts off the coast 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 yikes 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 I'm just going to keep posting because DGAF. Someone else feel free to jump in. 00z GEFS (top) vs 18z (bottom) - Low Locations - Monday Night - Confidence remains.....low 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Some bolts off the coast Pretty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 00z GFS Day 8 Almost trying to Kona pinching off that trough 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 9:34 PM Radar Update Impressive squall off the Washington Coast. I'm surprised the Seattle NWS doesn't have any statements out for this. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: I'm just going to keep posting because DGAF. Someone else feel free to jump in. 00z GEFS (top) vs 18z (bottom) - Low Locations - Monday Night - Confidence remains.....low 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 I got my snow tires put on this afternoon for the big event this weekend. Stocked up on frozen pizzas and energy drinks as well. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 9:34 PM Radar Update Impressive squall off the Washington Coast. I'm surprised the Seattle NWS doesn't have any statements out for this. C'MON!!!! The coastal waters have had a hell of a lot of excitement the last few weeks. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 Just now, FroYoBro said: I got my snow tires put on this afternoon for the big event this weekend. Stocked up on frozen pizzas and energy drinks as well. Plenty of "Mean Beans" by Java Monster I take it! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: I got my snow tires put on this afternoon for the big event this weekend. Stocked up on frozen pizzas and energy drinks as well. Any FroYo? FroYoBro? 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I got my snow tires put on this afternoon for the big event this weekend. Stocked up on frozen pizzas and energy drinks as well. Don't forget to stock up on kale! 1 1 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 Surprisingly cool evening with a current temp of 41 here. Can't wait to see when the first real cold wave comes into focus. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Don't forget to stock up on kale! No thank you. Just pizza, energy drinks, toilet paper and meth for me. 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS Day 8 Almost trying to Kona pinching off that trough A lot of model runs are hinting at this possibility. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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