MossMan Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: November 5-7, 2006 is probably the gold standard for AR firehoses in the region. The flash flooding in Mt. Rainier wiped out half the roads in the park and the precip rates in the upslope areas were straight up tropical. OR broke their 24 hour precip record and WA and ID both nearly did as well. I do think there were typhoon remnants in that funneled to us under a historically deep cold airmass in Alaska, which created a massive baroclinic zone that spanned the entire region. Yeah that one really sticks out in my mind as well. Stanwood saw quite the healthy flood event that closed schools for several days. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 13 hours ago, Phil said: It was traumatizing actually. Didn’t get any frozen precip out of it. Not even sleet. Typical La Niña affair..cold/dry —-> warmup/rain —> cold dry. which is why I perfer weak to moderate El ninos out of all the ensos phases it seems the pattern more often then not is money in weak to moderate Nino winters.La ninas are so so over all in our regions.I think the problem the last few years Phil has not been enso but bad phases in other factors like the qbo we been having wrong phases as of late. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 53 minutes ago, snow drift said: I would love to see some high latitude blocking. We've had one below average high all month. Did you get snow this morning? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Up to 65/59 at Salem with the south wind punching through there now. Lots of juice in the air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said: I was there on October 22, 2019 and it was pretty impressive to see the water roaring over the cliff. Unfortunately the lower platform was flooded so this was the best photo I could get from the upper one. I bet the sound from that roaring water was deafening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 51 minutes ago, Phil said: Yeah that’s part of it as well. Lots of upsloping blizzards above 3000ft in the apps as well but relatively few people to warn and doing so would be redundant. I was in a blizzard snowmobiling about 15 years ago with my mom and dad. We would park and ride from a area called greenwater on the way to Crystal mountain ski resort and ride up over fs road 70 down to a restaurant on the east side of cascades. Peak elevation was 5k feet. I knew there was weather coming but we went riding anyway. We had calm cloudy weather on trip over but coming back we had white out conditions, 50 mile per hr wind and temps around 20 degrees. If I hadn't known the road really good we would have been doomed. At the crest of the pass its about 20 miles to the truck and trailer. At the top a 10ft tall snow drift developed by the time we were coming back from dinner. It was me and my wife and my mom and dad all on our own machines. If it had just been my mom and dad they wouldn't of been able to navigate the road. When I say visibility was zero it really was. That moment was a learning experience for sure. 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Looks like the bulk of the rain is moving in here now. Up to 0.46” on the day. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 I think the temp sensor on my Davis station crapped out yesterday. Says we hit 70C. Didn’t feel that warm to me. and……. 1 3 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Here it the most recent ECMWF weeklies, each image is a 5 day running average 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 .53 so far and the highest rain rate so far was .86 Glad I got both my pumps and basin under the house cleaned up last month! Pump will be going off every minute soon! 53* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Up to 68F now and comfortable in a t shirt and shorts. Not much fun. 1 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Here it the most recent ECMWF weeklies, each image is a 5 day running average Could be worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 2.44" now since midnight. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 18z backing off on Precip further north. Extreme NW Oregon/SW WA look to be the main bullseye. Went from about 0.75" here tomorrow to almost 2". 5 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 It’s very dark outside. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Up to 68F now and comfortable in a t shirt and shorts. Not much fun. It's 91 here. However, 5:30 will be pitch black. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 We’re up to 0.60” now. 1 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 More banded than firehose so far. Looks like some heavy stuff coming though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 If we don't get a snowstorm this year the OldCulverJosh may come back. 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 minute ago, T-Town said: More banded than firehose so far. Looks like some heavy stuff coming though. Yeah maybe it’ll get more steady later on rather than moderate to heavy waves on and off. The next batch looks heavier than the previous one. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 18z backing off on Precip further north. Extreme NW Oregon/SW WA look to be the main bullseye. Went from about 0.75" here tomorrow to almost 2". Nice. Raining hard again here. Maybe Portland will end up doing better than I first expected. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Up to .45” on the day. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 26 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Nice. Raining hard again here. Maybe Portland will end up doing better than I first expected. Yeah PDX should do well with this next round. Could be some massive #s in the Clark county foothills. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Did you get snow this morning? I didn't see any flakes mixing in. Felts Field reported rain. KGEG reported light snow. KGEG has more elevation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Some heavy looking precip coming in off the coast. Agree with others - definitely not your typical AR look. More banded instead of a long, continuous firehose. It's very moist here now. And, I don't think this is the AR, that's coming after this frontal lobe moves through, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Timmy Supercell Posted November 12, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 High of 50 in Salt Lake City! The start of the drive had some sunbreaks, turning overcast within an hour of SLC. Had to get Holiday Inn Express again, parts of downtown are not the best here. Was going to stop off at 2 other hotels and turned right around because of tents/backpacks sighted. Just to be on the safe side! All our belongings are on 4 wheels. 10 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: High of 50 in Salt Lake City! The start of the drive had some sunbreaks, turning overcast within an hour of SLC. Had to get Holiday Inn Express again, parts of downtown are not the best here. Was going to stop off at 2 other hotels and turned right around because of tents/backpacks sighted. Just to be on the safe side! All our belongings are on 4 wheels. That Salt Lake weather is pretty lame in town. It is kind of like here where the action stays blocked up in the mountains. Although I bet the Salt Lake effect snow is something to marvel at. Would love to experience that once. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Currently a pretty aggressive flood forecast for the Skagit River. We hit almost 33ft on Friday night and more than 34 ft next week. I'm doubtful either of them will be that high as that would put both of them in the top 15 crests all time and 34 ft would only be a little less than the insane 2003 flooding, but if that second atmospheric river stays in the north up here I guess I could see it happening. Historic Crests (1) 37.37 ft on 11/25/1990 (2) 37.34 ft on 11/30/1995 (3) 37.00 ft on 11/11/1906 (4) 36.85 ft on 02/11/1951 (5) 36.61 ft on 11/11/1990 (6) 36.19 ft on 10/21/2003 (7) 35.66 ft on 12/04/1975 (8) 34.49 ft on 11/04/1955 (9) 34.21 ft on 11/28/1949 (10) 34.16 ft on 12/27/1980 (11) 33.99 ft on 12/19/1979 (12) 33.85 ft on 11/07/2006 (13) 33.15 ft on 11/24/2017 (P) (14) 32.39 ft on 12/05/1989 2 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: I think the temp sensor on my Davis station crapped out yesterday. Says we hit 70C. Didn’t feel that warm to me. and……. It felt like getting to the oasis when it rained this year! Did it already get that bad? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 0.65” so far now…looks like the next slug of rain is about to push through and it looks heavy. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Temp is slowly climbing up to 54 now. We will see if we can hit 60 either before midnight or tomorrow. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Some heavy looking precip coming in off the coast. Agree with others - definitely not your typical AR look. More banded instead of a long, continuous firehose. The fire hose is still to come. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Predicted Snoqualmie River peak discharge has lowered a bit, but not much: I've never used this feature before, but here are their "experimental" flow probabilities. The most likely range is between ~20,000 cfs and ~42,000 cfs, much lower than the predicted peak above. Going to have to read up on how these are calculated. That experimental graph is super interesting. It looks like maybe they're using the 80% percentile (or I guess more accurately the 20% percentile) for their forecast? Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 It is pouring outside. Some very moderate/heavy stuff sitting over us right now. With even heavier stuff moving in soon from the west over Bremerton. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Predicted Snoqualmie River peak discharge has lowered a bit, but not much: I've never used this feature before, but here are their "experimental" flow probabilities. The most likely range is between ~20,000 cfs and ~42,000 cfs, much lower than the predicted peak above. Going to have to read up on how these are calculated. Could be first time in over a decade Snoqualmie nears 60ft. And if it does hit 60ft or go over, it'll be first time since 1995/1996. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 FWIW the ECMWF weeklies have the PNA and EPO both negative around Christmas time. Not a bad looking run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: While we get inundated with inches upon inches of rain, Sioux Falls is about to score their first snowfall of the season tonight along with 50 mph winds. Ok Tim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cloud said: It is pouring outside. Some very moderate/heavy stuff sitting over us right now. With even heavier stuff moving in soon from the west over Bremerton. It is just plain awful here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Temp is up to 56…heaviest rain has passed through up to 0.90” now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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