TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Yep. King EURO wins! If the euro ends up being right there’s a legitimate shot at beating November 2006 in rainfall which I didn’t think was possible. We will see though it just flipped to the very wet solution on the latest run definitely not set in stone. 2 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: You’re a shell of your former tabloid self, Phil. Makes my heart sad. He was similar to Geraldo Rivera circa 1989, but he's transitioned to Dik Cavett from the mid 1970s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just now, snow drift said: He was similar to Geraldo Rivera circa 1989, but he's transitioned to **** Cavett from the mid 1970s. Poor **** can’t even get a shout out on the forum. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Sun brake! 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Sun brake! Sun stopped moving across the sky? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 63F after a low of 54F. Looks like another double-digit positive temp departure. Now 24 since our last double-digit negative one. Gonna assume that's a dubious record. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: Here comes the 3rd Pineapple Express since October 28th…with another one possibly coming later if the euros right. I could be at 11 inches for the month after this next AR. Pretty insane. Might rival 1853. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Really nice afternoon. It hasn’t been this bright outside in awhile. Really nice change of pace 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: We’re probably not repeating 2008/09. Or 1949/50. Just keeping it real. Probably not 1949-50. 2008 could happen. You keep ignoring this month has basically no resemblance to November 2007, and other problems with that analog. IMO what we are seeing now is a textbook precursor to a major cold event. We will know soon enough. I would gladly bet you a crisp $50.00 bill this winter will be more curvy than 2007-08. I was going to comment the latest EPS runs are remarkably similar to those projections you've been showing us based on the MJO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, BLI snowman said: There was also a 2nd big event late in November 1999 for good measure. Also a nice deluge in mid November 2001....And late Novembers 2002 and 2004 up in NW WA and SW BC. And then there was November 20, 2012. It's literally an annual event on the West Coast. It's merely confirmation bias to say a particular AR will lead to anything. That being said, I do like to see a regionally wet fall. Tends to mean better prospects for mid-winter cold. I'll have to check what the trajectory was on the 1999 AR events. Ones that come more directly from the west have a much better track record of leading to the goodies than ones that are SW or SSW. I think that's because the more westerly trajectory ones indicate the axis of the suppressed Pacific Ridge is further west which leads to a better chance of future amplification being in the sweet spot. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 12z & 18z. It’s shifting south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Fog just rolled up the hill... 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: 12z & 18z. It’s shifting south. Yeah...the 12z ECMWF shows an insane 5 inches here with the event. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Fog just rolled up the hill... Cool pic. We've had remarkably little fog here this autumn. I always like a good fog episode every year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: 12z & 18z. It’s shifting south. It’s gonna be a real close call here but I think it’s gonna shift a little more south. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: 12z & 18z. It’s shifting south. Is it shifting south? Or just slightly increasing totals? The bullseye is still over Whatcom on both runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, North_County said: Is it shifting south? Or just slightly increasing totals? The bullseye is still over Whatcom on both runs. FWIW, rain just started here pretty steady. Cleaned the gutters early this morning and had the kids do a final check for anything in the back yard that looked.....bouyant. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: It’s gonna be a real close call here but I think it’s gonna shift a little more south. 3.26 at Tacoma Narrows and 1.83 at JBLM. Quite a gradient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: 12z & 18z. It’s shifting south. Maybe The Swamp will get shadowed by the Olympics and cut our totals down a bit. I won't complain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 minute ago, T-Town said: 3.26 at Tacoma Narrows and 1.83 at JBLM. Quite a gradient. Yeah just a shift 10 miles north and it’s be like half the rainfall but the models seem to be trending the other way for now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 minute ago, The Swamp said: Maybe The Swamp will get shadowed by the Olympics and cut our totals down a bit. I won't complain. The flow isn’t really aligned with there being a shadow in the south sound more central/north sound. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: A wetter shift down here on this run too. Would put us around 14-15”, with a week left to go in the month. Speaking of 14-15, seven years ago right now we were about to get hit with one helluva warning shot. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/11/13/a-serious-flood-or-a-few-showers-examining-sunday-nights-perilous-forecast-for-the-seattle-area/ Have always liked joe zagrodniks posts this has some very good details on the potential for Seattle/Tacoma area. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/11/13/a-serious-flood-or-a-few-showers-examining-sunday-nights-perilous-forecast-for-the-seattle-area/ Have always liked joe zagrodniks posts this has some very good details on the potential for Seattle/Tacoma area. Sweet! A new local weather blog to follow! Thanks! I didn't know of this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Yesterday fog never went away and looks like it might not go away today either. Currently 53F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 It is exceedingly gray/grey today! If the land wasn't in these photos, they would just blend in with the water. The Olympics are pretty obscured by the clouds, but the Cascades are visible. Images reduced in size so they don't DESTROY the site. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 As I've mentioned before big floods on the Skagit River are particularly telling for whatever reason. Since 1920 the biggest floods are. December 1921 - Very cold weather followed. November 1949 - Very cold weather followed November 1990 - Very cold weather followed November 1995 - Very cold weather followed October 2003 - Rare late October Arctic outbreak followed, and best winter in the 1999 - 2006 period. November 2006 - Very cold weather followed November 2021 - ? Interestingly 1990 had a double flood like this is going to be. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, North_County said: Is it shifting south? Or just slightly increasing totals? The bullseye is still over Whatcom on both runs. Just a casual 5~6" of rain over Victoria. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, The Swamp said: Maybe The Swamp will get shadowed by the Olympics and cut our totals down a bit. I won't complain. The ECMWF shows the Olympic shadow from about Sea - Tac northward. Areas south of the Pierce / King county line will be decided by the placement of the AR. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: It is exceedingly gray/grey today! If the land wasn't in these photos, they would just blend in with the water. The Olympics are pretty obscured by the clouds, but the Cascades are visible. Images reduced in size so they don't DESTROY the site. At least the rain stopped for a while. I was able to clean up the yard a bit from previous storms. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Sounds like Sunday evening is the wildcard for the central sound. Epic rain for some a drizzle a few miles south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: Just a casual 5~6" of rain over Victoria. This might rival the October 2003 rainfall here. I still remember how crazy that one was. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: This might rival the October 2003 rainfall here. I still remember how crazy that one was. We set our largest 1 day rainfall record with that one. I remember substantial flooding on campus with that one. The timing of this isn't great for daily records but the 2 day rainfall could be impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This might rival the October 2003 rainfall here. I still remember how crazy that one was. This could be some crazy stuff coming up. I’m also interested in seeing about the potential for more wet weather coming after this one gfs isn’t quite as wet as the euro later next week. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF shows the Olympic shadow from about Sea - Tac northward. Areas south of the Pierce / King county line will be decided by the placement of the AR. Just crossing my fingers and hoping right now. Everything is just soaked. I have a few weeks off work coming up and it would be nice for some cold crisp dry weather to put up Christmas lights in and get some more leaves cleaned up. D**n trees seem to be dropping them at their own special slow pace this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Flowers still blooming in the yard 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 18z ICON is actually about as wet for Portland as for Seattle. Band stays tucked to the north. Insane rain for Whatcom County and LMBC though. 5-6" in some areas and tons more in the mountains. Still a fair amount of snowpack up there, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Snoqualmie river flood stage is 54ft. At 56ft there will be widespread flooding. The river is at 57.9ft with the next AR here already and the models are showing some insane numbers. This is a major problem. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 And there it is. The city might be jumping the gun a bit on this one, but a lot of "new-ish" residents were caught off guard by the last flood in February 2020. And the forecast has been pretty consistent for this area for a while now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cloud said: Snoqualmie river flood stage is 54ft. At 56ft there will be widespread flooding. The river is at 57.9ft with the next AR here already and the models are showing some insane numbers. This is a major problem. Will you be chasing this one?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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