TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Wind is slowly ramping up as the front closes in. Have had a couple gusts in the 45mph range here since 8am. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: HRRR says the entire front has cleared the western WA lowlands already by 1 p.m. Disney quick pass given to proceed east! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Good news for the rain starved folks in western WA and SW BC... the 12Z GFS shows another major AR event right around Thanksgiving. This is just 48-hour rainfall from next Wednesday through Friday: 1 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Good news for the rain starved folks in western WA and SW BC... the 12Z GFS shows another major AR event right around Thanksgiving. This is just 48-hour rainfall from next Wednesday through Friday: Thankfully it’s the gfs so it won’t happen…right? 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: Thankfully it’s the gfs so it won’t happen…right? Lets hope so. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Base of Pine Marten lift on Bachelor at 6350’. Yeah... they ain’t opening by November 26. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Every run is swinging wildly. 12z keeps the same pattern going pretty much the whole month. Mild SW flow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Got out for a walk a bit ago, can confirm it’s quite windy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: Every run is swinging wildly. 12z keeps the same pattern going pretty much the whole month. Mild SW flow. You beat me to it. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 The rain just reached Bainbridge and the wind is really whipping up now. Gusting to 42 and it is WARM out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Tacoma narrows airport gusted to 47mph a bit ago. Probably close to that here too at times. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Gfs still showing the first snow of the season for SE Vancouver island on Thursday night. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art_Digbee Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 We just hit 7" for the storm total, 2.2" since midnight at Doe Bay on Orcas. The one road to town has apparently washed out this morning- right next to the resort. Lots of power outages across the islands but we still have power for now. Here are some pic from the stream on our property... 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Good news for the rain starved folks in western WA and SW BC... the 12Z GFS shows another major AR event right around Thanksgiving. This is just 48-hour rainfall from next Wednesday through Friday: The N/S gradient is a cruel mistress. More warm overcast for us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Parts of the town of Princeton BC are reported to have flood water 6-7 feet deep this morning 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: The N/S gradient is a cruel mistress. More warm overcast for us. Yeah... you are missing out on all the fun they are having up north. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Remember a couple runs ago when the GFS was showing a big cold trough in the east. LOL 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Good news for the rain starved folks in western WA and SW BC... the 12Z GFS shows another major AR event right around Thanksgiving. This is just 48-hour rainfall from next Wednesday through Friday: Return to sender. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... you are missing out on all the fun they are having up north. Maybe it will trend south and soothe our parched land. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Parts of the town of Princeton BC are reported to have flood water 6-7 feet deep this morning Pretty crazy... that location is east of the Cascade crest. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... you are missing out on all the fun they are having up north. Just realizing that Tiger is right about the south valley. We can’t get a single interesting event aimed at us. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Some hope in the long range. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, Omegaraptor said: Just realizing that Tiger is right about the south valley. We can’t get a single interesting event aimed at us. Thank God I live north of the Santiam River. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Remember a couple runs ago when the GFS was showing a big cold trough in the east. LOL This run does?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Incoming! Quiet waves here along Redondo as winds are from the SE currently. So this area protected at the moment. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: This run does?? Must be pretty transitory... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 12Z GFS shows over 8 inches at SEA in the next 2 weeks... would give 2006 a run for its money. If that were to verify this might end up the wettest month ever recorded in Seattle. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Just realizing that Tiger is right about the south valley. We can’t get a single interesting event aimed at us. Oregon has always done better with mid-winter AR events. Generally their most extreme events are going to be when there's much colder air to the north to really suppress the jet and aim it square at them (January 2012, November 1996, December 1964). 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Looks like another juicy warm front lifting north at 384 hours. Nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Oregon has always done better with mid-winter AR events. Generally their most extreme events are going to be when there's much colder air to the north to really suppress the jet and aim it square at them (January 2012, November 1996, December 1964). As far as recent months go December 2015 was pretty gnarly. Just dumped rain for days as system after system came through. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Oregon has always done better with mid-winter AR events. Generally their most extreme events are going to be when there's much colder air to the north to really suppress the jet and aim it square at them (January 2012, November 1996, December 1964). Ahhh January 2012... That was a good one. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Touring some of the flood waters in Skagit before going to help sandbag. Flood is pretty comparable with other events in the last couple decades on the Samish although supposedly this is a record high crest. 8 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 12Z GEM has other plans for Thanksgiving... maybe the ECMWF will follow. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: As far as recent months go December 2015 was pretty gnarly. Just dumped rain for days as system after system came through. Yeah, that would be an example of Oregon getting in the jet's crosshairs without any massive cold air to the north. The raging Nino helped set that up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 @TT-SEA You weren’t joking 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just got an alert that I-5 northbound is closed at Nulle Rd due to a mudslide. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Pretty crazy... that location is east of the Cascade crest. Merritt has sustained major flooding as well. Reports of the Coquihalla highway may have sustained major damage. Possibly involving bridges. That is the main truck route from Vancouver to the Interior. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Just got an alert that I-5 northbound is closed at Nulle Rd due to a mudslide. Since Hwy 9 is almost certainly closed now, that means the only way into whatcom county from the south would be Chukanut Drive, right? And I'm not sure I'd feel real comfortable taking that route right now, either. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 12Z GEFS shows a different pattern later next week than the 12Z GFS... and is pretty dry for the next 10 days. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, that would be an example of Oregon getting in the jet's crosshairs without any massive cold air to the north. The raging Nino helped set that up. Somehow that was the snowiest December since moving here in 2011... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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