MIKEKC Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GEFS developing a bullseye. Ensembles look good for KC Lets go! We're about 60 -72 hours out. We'll see how this thing trends. The Canadian model just flipped out and said, what storm. Totally different run from the 0z run last night. The GFS looks great for a lot of folks. GFS has been pretty consistent, has it not?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z UK - the center of the snow band is the same as 00z, but it's a bit weaker and the edges have shrunk inward this run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z GEFS trends...tightening things up... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Lets go! We're about 60 -72 hours out. We'll see how this thing trends. The Canadian model just flipped out and said, what storm. Totally different run from the 0z run last night. The GFS looks great for a lot of folks. GFS has been pretty consistent, has it not?? It has but it drops 7hrs of sleet in mby. 30 miles on that model is the difference between sleet and warning level snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Looks like snow is coming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z ECMWF a tad slower at the surface compared to the 00z but juices up snowfall in western and central Nebraska a little more. Side note, pretty bizarre how the Kuchera numbers coming out are almost 2x the 10:1 numbers (at least on WeatherBell) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Snowman said: 12z ECMWF a tad slower at the surface compared to the 00z but juices up snowfall in western and central Nebraska a little more. Side note, pretty bizarre how the Kuchera numbers coming out are almost 2x the 10:1 numbers (at least on WeatherBell) Never mind, I see surface temps are forecasted to be just a hair above zero in the OMA/LNK area, hence the wild numbers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Euro still takes a great path but weakens as it heads east lowering totals in eastern iowa. I hope that is a trend that reverses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Obligatory Kuchera map, 12z ECMWF 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Man the euro has been very consistent 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 You'd think it would be pretty easy to get 20:1 ratios with temps in the single digits here. 12Z Euro gives us about .4" QPF, so that's 8". 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 I pretty much expect the heavier snow track to stay north of me so I would lean towards the Euro. I imagine I'll get the usual dusting to 1/2". 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: You'd think it would be pretty easy to get 20:1 ratios with temps in the single digits here. 12Z Euro gives us about .4" QPF, so that's 8". Yep, perusing the GFS' implied ratio charts on Pivotal, looks like 21:1 - 23:1 for the area during the event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: You'd think it would be pretty easy to get 20:1 ratios with temps in the single digits here. 12Z Euro gives us about .4" QPF, so that's 8". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z EPS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 There’s some big hitters on the a** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 At the point in forecasting this storm, we have nearly all the resources (besides CAMS) that we need to regards to modeling data to begin forecasting with more accuracy. After looking at the trends in the GEFS and EURO means in addition to the National Blend of models, to me it seems that the EURO is more of the outlier at this point in time. The NBM has continually been upping snow totals from south of the KC metro, to northern Missouri. The GEFS seems to be telling us it thinks the bullseye will northern Missouri, while the EURO mean is telling us its in southern Nebraska and Southern Iowa. We can't try to outsmart the models and the data. We have to work with it. These 10:1 snow total maps are also going to be deceiving because especially for areas north of Kansas City into northern Missouri, snow ratios will start 10-12:1 and may finish close to 17-18:1. It's obvious with these QPF outputs that GEFS likes a wetter and more southerly track and the EURO a more northerly and weaker track. In the next 24 hours we will (hopefully) see these converge. It's getting to be crunch time. Here we go! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Cautiously optimistic here in Omaha. Latest GEFS & EPS have gathered around 0.3-0.45" QPF, which (assuming 20:1 or even 23:1 ratios) looks to translate into at least 5-6". Would love to get 8", my arbitrary personal number for a "big one" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Wow. Nam is 12 degree warmer at the surface compared to the GFS. Ice storm for the Kansas City area. Major outlier at the moment. Has a very wet and strong storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Looking good per GRR. - New Years Day Winter Storm Travel impacts are expected over the weekend, especially from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, as a winter storm with several inches of snow is becoming more likely. The ECMWF has been fairly consistent the past couple days in showing a stripe of heavy snow across our forecast area and the GFS trended that way yesterday and continues today, so confidence is increasing. The trend has also been for a colder storm, with even our southeast forecast area getting all or mostly all snow. The 12Z GFS model sounding at AZO and JXN show all snow by the time the steadier precip arrives during the late morning on Saturday. The synoptic set up is interesting in that we are poised to get heavy snow without a deepening or even well-defined surface low. Indeed, the surface low does not begin to intensify until it is well past our longitude and the upper trough goes negative tilt. The main driver here is strong mid-level frontogenetic forcing which results from strongly confluent flow ahead of the advancing positively-tilted longwave trough. The confluence strengthens the baroclinic zone between SE CONUS ridging and the upper trough. Deep Gulf moisture is also available in this flow regime. A 1028mb surface high of arctic origin is centered over the Northern Plains with sfc ridging extending eastward across southern Canada feeding cold air at the surface on northeast low level winds, which will increase snow ratios to 10 to 1 or higher during this event, unlike the "warm snows" we have seen so far. At this point it looks like 4 to 8 inches across much of southern Lower Michigan but mesoscale banding that persists/pivots over the same could result in locally higher amounts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Please let the 18z NAM be right for just once. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Maybe a tad over done? Models are really starting to come to a close agreement on the heaviest axis of snow that's for sure. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z EPS control member in full; chart shows 10:1 ratios of course so for those well away from the rain/snow line this is likely underdone. Attaching QPF as well for this reason 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Maybe a tad over done? Models are really starting to come to a close agreement on the heaviest axis of snow that's for sure. That may look like it agrees with the Euro, but it's vastly different solution. It has a sharp cut off in snow just north of KC only because it has an ice storm for KC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Got to love Jim! Liking that the dry air has shifted a tad south and away from eastern Neb which feels like a rarity. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z RGEM continues to favor south of I80 to the Missouri border in iowa with the heaviest axis. 6-8” for the iowa city area. Which to be honest would be a great storm for here. I can’t recall a storm in many years where iowa city ended up in the jackpot zone. I don’t see this storm being any different. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z ICON big hit for KC. 18z models have came in slower and more juiced so far. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 If I could take which model I'd like to be correct at this juncture...NAM, GFS(ugh) Euro. I don't normally put much faith into the ICON. I don't normally miss storms to the south in Waterloo. West, North, and East are usually what happens to me here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z GFS (left) vs 12z GFS total QPF... thought it was going to show a drier outcome for Omaha but actually comes out essentially unchanged run-over-run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 I’ll take the 18z GFs all day. Heaviest snow to my south but still about 10” IMBY. I’d be thrilled 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z GEFS vs 12z; northward shift in precipitation, brings Omaha into the 0.4" QPF bucket (just barely). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 Here is OAX and GID first look. I'll take it and run with it! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 18z GEFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 I really like the look of that GEFS mean. 6.4” in CR at 10:1 would translate into 8+” easily. I’m just south of there so 10” IMBY is reasonable. I hope these trends hold. I’d like to see a winter storm watch issued tomorrow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 https://whatgoesonoutside.com/a-wintry-start-to-2022/ Check out my take on the storm for the KC metro area! Would love more weather enthusiasts to join in this weather experience! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said: https://whatgoesonoutside.com/a-wintry-start-to-2022/ Check out my take on the storm for the KC metro area! Would love more weather enthusiasts to join in this weather experience! Great write up, I need a south shift to get Warrensburg out of the frz rain. I think that shift may happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 18z Euro is similar in track to the 12z but overall less qpf and much quicker to get the storm in and out. Previous runs showed snow lingering for awhile, not on this run. Only 6-8” in the heaviest bands 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Those high end amounts seem more Realistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I’m gonna wait to test my snowblower until Friday morning to not jinx this possible snowstorm. And the way it’s been lately this would be a snowstorm. 4-8” and temps in the mid 20’s snowstorms have been missing lately. And for once thermals won’t be a problem. I’m not greedy. I’d take 4” of cold fluffy white cold. But 7-8” would be nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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