Sciascia Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 This thing coming apart at the seams (in terms of a big snow) is unfortunate to see. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 By tonight’s runs we might be looking at a nothing Burger for most of us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sciascia said: This thing coming apart at the seams (in terms of a big snow) is unfortunate to see. Ya, my concern was the disconnection of both energies and it is not looking like an overwhelming broad area of heavier precip in the cold sector. I'm really worried that the convection down south doesnt steal our moisture. I am encouraged, however, that the lake will enhance our totals by a few inches. That is looking really nice for Lake/Cook counties. The IBM GRAF model which does really well at this range is suggesting a long fetched "lake plume" developing every in the morning on Sat and holding steady all day and night, even after Midnight Sat into parts of the Chicago area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro a bit south and weaker Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro sucks. Lol. Still gonna show 5” here though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 I'm going with 3" in Cedar Rapids. They may need to cancel warnings north of I-80. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro has been steady and consistently weaker. I hope it’s wrong. Not holding my breath though. I just want 6”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Though the wind will make for some cooler blowing/drifting, it'll probably hurt the potential for high ratios. With the euro, I still take my chances with 0.25-0.3" of QPF at 4 degrees, but the northern edge is getting pretty close. Starting to think more like 4-5" here, I said 5-7" before I really looked at everything this morning 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I'm going with 3" in Cedar Rapids. They may need to cancel warnings north of I-80. I was just upgraded to a warning and I live north of I-80. I’m not sure what to expect for my area. Things have been changing back and forth so much and I’ve been on the edge the whole time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 12z Euro going to make for a tough forecast in KC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Man- this thing is turning into a turd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 I'd start to focus on the higher res short term models at this point. We're within 24 hours so they should be pretty accurate. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Huge differences between the Euro and GFS less than 24 hours before the start of the storm. Let's see who wins. Euro isn't always right, that much I have definitely learned in my many years tracking winter storms. GFS further north and stronger. vs. the weaker and further south Euro. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 With how horrible December was I'm just glad this isn't rain for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 rip betty white 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: rip betty white Nooo way! She was so close to 100 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 hrrr 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z nam is looking good for omaha/lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 LOL The 18z NAM never fails to deliver. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Crazy how much this map has wobbled back and forth. The marking line still ends up being the platte river. Crazy how much that comes into play with these storms! Well will see what happens; things looking good for 4" in my area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 LOT has issued warnings for lakeside counties, as well as northern counties like McHenry, Boone (whoo!), and Winnebago. 2 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Sciascia said: LOT has issued warnings for lakeside counties, as well as northern counties like McHenry, Boone (whoo!), and Winnebago. Was interested to see what LOT was going to do. Glad to get the first WSW of the season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 I’m gonna stick with my first call of 4” for now. Will have to reevaluate after the 00z runs. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Hmmm... not sure how I feel about the outlook for Omaha. NWS has us at 4-7" as was posted above, but I can't help but feel like that might be a little aggressive. Personally think 3-6" (or even 3-5") in the city is more believable. Recent drier trend gives me a gut feeling of being the correct outcome (though I'd love to be wrong) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Snowman said: Hmmm... not sure how I feel about the outlook for Omaha. NWS has us at 4-7" as was posted above, but I can't help but feel like that might be a little aggressive. Personally think 3-6" (or even 3-5") in the city is more believable. Recent drier trend gives me a gut feeling of being the correct outcome (though I'd love to be wrong) And of course right as I say that, NWS Omaha comes out with their refreshed snow forecast placing the 6-8" range just on the city's doorstep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, The Snowman said: And of course right as I say that, NWS Omaha comes out with their refreshed snow forecast placing the 6-8" range just on the city's doorstep. Yeah I’m waiting to see what GID does. Amounts for my area have been climbing since this morning. OAX is going aggressive and Hastings has been the exact opposite ever since watches were posted. I wasn’t even in a watch and went from advisory to a warning within 6 hours! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Is it just me or, are the models more wishy-washy than they used to be? Maybe it was before I really started paying attention? I know when they upgraded the GFS it was awful. Just seems to me there's are.mkre instances of rather large spreads even as we approach events. Just my thoughts. To whomever gets snow, have fun! I'm gonna stick with around 3-5 for me in Waterloo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 DVN must not be siding with the Euro. They've got 6-11" in my point forecast. New Year's Day Snow, mainly after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 10am. High near 15. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow likely before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 hours ago, Sciascia said: This thing coming apart at the seams (in terms of a big snow) is unfortunate to see. Fwiw, based off that storm that produced that crazy tornado outbreak a few weeks ago, the models were sort of underselling how intense that low pressure was going to be up being til the last minute I feel like. Heck, most of Nebraska wasn’t expecting severe weather and then the day of they get in an enhanced risk and Lincoln sets a record for highest straight line winds. also, Minneapolis ended up with 21” of snow when they were predicting around 8-12”. We have unusually warm waters in the Gulf and in the Lakes, I think these recent trends of it being weaker are wrong. It’s more so a question of where it’s going to happen. I’m also never right and don’t know what I’m talking about lol but just my guess! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, bud2380 said: DVN must not be siding with the Euro. They've got 6-11" in my point forecast. New Year's Day Snow, mainly after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 10am. High near 15. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow likely before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. My point went up by 3 inches as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 OAX warning updated now says 5-10”. Jeez, they’re not holding back on this one. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Dmx updated graphic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gfs with 8” for iowa city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Here's my final take before we throw away all the models and look outside. Tough, tough forecast for the KC metro.. not only dealing with the D**n elevated warm layer, but not dealing with dry slot. There will quite the cut off. https://whatgoesonoutside.com/major-new-years-winter-storm-to-affect-kansas-city/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 very sharp cutoff for my county Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Might mean nothing at this point, but 18z GEFS mean is south by a couple counties Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 29 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Might mean nothing at this point, but 18z GEFS mean is south by a couple counties Doesn't really appear to be south, just much drier. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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