PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, luminen said:

Why are east coasters so...unlikeable? 

It’s their annoying winter sweaters. 

[MossMan]

29.5. 
Very quiet on the forum tonight. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

29.5. 
Very quiet on the forum tonight. 

An impressive stretch of sub-freezing morning lows late in the season. Much longer than I had anticipated. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro coming in very wet kind of interesting to see the typical mid winter progression of continental air followed by an AR in late Feb/early March 

[luminen]

9F and clear skies here.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

29.5. 
Very quiet on the forum tonight. 

Models good

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Models good

Rob back tmrw 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

All models have backed off significantly on rain totals for Eugene on each of the last several runs.

Driest ever February is still feasible, and now March is looking dry too.

Things get even worse as you head south. Parts of CA may record a near shutout for the Jan 1st - Mar 15th period, with no relief in sight.

Here’s euro. Looks like what normal would be

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

All models have backed off significantly on rain totals for Eugene on each of the last several runs.

Driest ever February is still feasible, and now March is looking dry too.

Things get even worse as you head south. Parts of CA may record a near shutout for the Jan 1st - Mar 15th period, with no relief in sight.

The metro area really is gonna be destroyed one of these years.

[The Blob]

9 hours ago, Everleigh said:

I'm working on a temperature blanket for 2022. This is January.  I use the daily average temp to decide colors. Fairly boring so far....lol 

I started one last year. I'm doing mitered squares with the highs and lows for each day. Gonna use black for the heat wave we had in June.

[RentonHill]

EPS good again. Good night 

[MossMan]

More memories! 

[Meatyorologist]

28°F here already. Very localized near my place, though. Most other areas in NE Seattle are around 32-34°F.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Rob back tmrw 

Windy! Yeah I'm on a new med I've never taken before for my left forearm tendon and it has made me really gassy. It's hard to do much weather analysis or type accurately when you got the holiday toots. Did I mention I've been farting A LOT? Really windy here the Gorge is open for business tonight!

6z GFS in 33 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

What I'm trying to say is if I tried to count on one hand how many times I've passed flatulence tonight, well, I'd need a lot more hands. This is ridiculous. I'm like a human geyser at this point. Ugh. That was hilarious.

12z ECMWF in 8 hours 46 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

* Sprays air freshener... I think it's a raspberry scent.

12z NAM in 4 hours 5 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS 3 Day Rainfall totals

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

55 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS 3 Day Rainfall totals

(Past 4 runs)

PDX has increased totals every run

[Jbolin]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

PDX has increased totals every run

Central Puget Sound gets SOAKED! 

 

D**n.

[Tyler Mode]

Last freeze of the "winter."  My station will end up with 43 for the DJF period, which is about 8 above my average. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 31 here this morning. 6th consecutive freeze and 21st of the season also likely our last until March. 

[Meatyorologist]

Love mornings like this. Sticking in the 20s here as daylight spreads over the frost covered neighborhood. Meanwhile just up the hill it’s in the mid-upper 30s. Nights like this we really show off our microclimate; by far the coldest spot in Seattle proper.

Sometimes during east wind events, when conditions are just right, we can remain in dead calm subfreezing conditions, while half a mile away and 150’ up it’s in the low 50s and breezy. This happened in Nov 2016 iirc

[MossMan]

The last non muddy morning, I had to stand outside and soak it all in before it turns to mush. 
Low of 29. Currently 34. 
DP 28. 

[Phil]

12 hours ago, luminen said:

Why are east coasters so...unlikeable? 

This hurts my feelings. I love you all.   

[MossMan]

A March extravaganza (of some sort) is coming. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

16 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

He’s only here to complain. 

I am just so tired of seeing the QPF gradient play itself out time and time again. It’s like there is some semi-permeable barrier right along the Columbia River that absorbs 50% of precipitation. I feel bad for areas south of Salem as they continuously get left high and dry with the inevitable northward trend of every rain event. I haven’t been posting or lurking here lately because it puts me in a bad mood talking about weather or thinking too much about it. 
 

The Euro will soon bow down to other models and move the bullseye north to Longview-Seattle. You’ll see. 

[Phil]

I think it’s coming. Significant wave-2 PV disruption in tandem with IPWP/WPAC MJO by itself tends to trigger NPAC/WHEM blocking regimes.

In this case the orientation of the wave-2 response (anticyclone on North American side w/ dominant daughter vortice in Asia) is especially favorable for -EPO and further wave driving thru NPAC. This is likely the beginning of the end for the winter PV.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A March extravaganza (of some sort) is coming. 

Oh very friendly fuzzies this morning! Here we go! C'MON!

 

P.S. Do you live on a glacier? The snow you still have is nuts!!!!!

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 22 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 3 Day Rainfall totals

(Past 4 runs)

[Phil]

These are always chaotic and messy, even more so near seasonal transitions, but from a statistical point it view, the first few weeks of this event will favor cold in the West.

Eventually there will (probably) be more STJ/+PNA (possibly with residual or continued -EPO), but enough of an extension that positive precipitation anomalies could develop in the SW US, which would be huge.

Of course this entire process will also trigger additional WWBs and would aid the transition to +ENSO, if that is indeed where the system is headed. But it’ll keep winter going, in the meantime.

[TT-SEA]

If the ECMWF is correct... SEA will end up wetter than normal for February and that would be 5 out of the last 6 months that were wetter than normal.     Only December was a little drier than normal and that was primarily because it was cold and snowy.      SEA should be around +6 inches for the water year by Tuesday.      Despite the dry weather recently... this will still end up being a significantly wet fall and winter period this year.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

These are always chaotic and messy, even more so near seasonal transitions, but from a statistical point it view, the first few weeks of this event will favor cold in the West.

Eventually there will (probably) be more STJ/+PNA (possibly with residual or continued -EPO), but enough of an extension that positive precipitation anomalies could develop in the SW US, which would be huge.

Of course this entire process will also trigger additional WWBs and would aid the transition to +ENSO, if that is indeed where the system is headed. But it’ll keep winter going, in the meantime.

What about summer?   Are you leaning in any direction yet?

[RentonHill]

7 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

What I'm trying to say is if I tried to count on one hand how many times I've passed flatulence tonight, well, I'd need a lot more hands. This is ridiculous. I'm like a human geyser at this point. Ugh. That was hilarious.

12z ECMWF in 8 hours 46 minutes

[MossMan]

Getting breezy! Not DJ breezy but outside air movement breezy! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Oh very friendly fuzzies this morning! Here we go! C'MON!

 

P.S. Do you live on a glacier? The snow you still have is nuts!!!!!

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 22 minutes

I sooo love where I live! If I could make one change though knowing what I now know about my area, in a perfect world we would have moved about a mile or so east at the highest point which is nearly 800ft, but our current spot does just fine.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congratulations Andrew!  

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congrats!!! 

[Phil]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What about summer?   Are you leaning in any direction yet?

Will need to see how quickly we leave La Niña, and how the West-Pacific Warm Pool evolves, but statistically I think a warm summer is favored, with warmer anomalies focused later in the season, as opposed to last year.

But anything from a 2015-like blowtorch, to a more 2019-like mild/wet regime, is possible assuming La Niña/-ENSO base state doesn’t hold on (and I don’t think it will).

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congratulations!!! What a wonderful, healthy looking baby.