Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Here’s the 18z GFS @ 96hrs vs 12z EPS valid at same time. Only 4 days out. One of these will be wrong. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) A heavy shower has been training over my area for the last hour or so. Lots of nourishing rain. Edited May 2, 2022 by FroYoBro 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Wow! The EPS PNA forecast has dropped from -1 to -2.5 over the past few runs for the early part of next week. The EPO is also forecast to drop which could indicate a period of cool / drier weather. Might be a frost opportunity coming up. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 Meanwhile another ridiculously cool day today with highs around 10 degrees below normal. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 EPS is definitely an improvement over previous runs 5 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 58/44 day here with widely scattered showers. Picked up .14” so far today 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Well over an inch of rain today. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 50 days until sun angles start DECREASING. Edited May 3, 2022 by Deweydog 6 1 2 1 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 56/47 today. Haven’t had any rain since this morning and looks doubtful we will get more. Heading out to the island now pretty decent evening 53 and cloudy. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 @Joshua Lake Oswego 4 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Meanwhile another ridiculously cool day today with highs around 10 degrees below normal. I sure hope not. Got some of my garden planted and want it to actually live, thrive grow and it needs warm sunshine for that. All we have now is slug weather. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: 50 days until sun angles start DECREASING. CFS agrees. Phil does NOT 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 57 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: @Joshua Lake Oswego Yeah, huge difference today between here and there. Only 0.18" here today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1.29” here today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: CFS agrees. Phil does NOT The ensemble mean is clearly smoothing over what will be some very dynamic sundial readings in the week two period. 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Deweydog said: 50 days until sun angles start DECREASING. Not much change in sun angle from June 14 to 28 expected this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 16 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: God is blessing us. This would be great for me as well. I'd be thrilled with even an abnormally dry at this point. Though Central Washington is struggling more than anywhere else in our state for rain, making my concerns minor in comparision. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Deweydog said: 50 days until sun angles start DECREASING. I count the days until Aug 2nd or Aug 3rd which is the day in E. WA and North Central Idaho, after which daily average high temperatures start to drop. 2 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: @Joshua Lake Oswego Unfortunately, I mainly missed out. I’m in extreme SW Lake Oswego. Watching the radar was extremely frustrating. 1 or so mile north of here got deluged. We finally got in on the action around 5pm when the band sagged south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Incredible. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 I had 0.26 inches of rain today and had a good downpour when the cold front passed this afternoon. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, huge difference today between here and there. Only 0.18" here today. Getting a decent shower here now, should pad the totals for the day. There is still a band of bright sky to the west while it’s raining which makes for kind of a cool scene 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Getting a decent shower here now, should pad the totals for the day. There is still a band of bright sky to the west while it’s raining which makes for kind of a cool scene Yeah, we had the same dynamic here shortly before sunset in a very narrow and slow moving shower. The beautiful contrasts we can see in the sky conditions is definitely one of the best things about our springs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 5 hours ago, Phil said: That thing right there. 18z GFS erroneously absorbs it back into the Aleutian Low, similar to early last month. And sure enough, the 00z GFS has made a significant correction inside day 4. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Impressively chilly in the southern Willamette and Umpqua valleys today. High of 51 at Eugene is the coldest high on this date since 1963. Record is 50. 52 at Roseburg is a -16 departure, and the record for this date is 51. So close, yet so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 LOL..this is only 99hrs out. What a joke. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: LOL..this is only 99hrs out. It just came around to the ECMWF solution. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phil said: LOL..this is only 99hrs out. What a joke. A night and day difference, highly predictable too. And this is where my tax dollars are going... 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It just came around to the ECMWF solution. I don’t understand why we can’t do better. The fact we can all spot+predict these errors via the naked eye is the scary part. This is possibly worse than the old ECMWF bias of trapping ULLs in the SW US. Remember that? Ahh the good ‘ole days. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 It looks increasingly likely that we will be seeing very potent Spring airmasses two months in a row. That late season SSW sure did shake things up quite a bit, because we've rapidly flipped the script from 2012-2022 +EPO/+PDO to a 2011 style progression. Who saw this coming? 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 I think it has farther to correct as well. The 18z EPS and control shifted further west with the ridge axis vs 12z. GFS/GEFS still a progressive/nudged-over outlier. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Typical May airmass, nothing to see here 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Sub 522dm thickness off the OR coast at hr126. That's a serious airmass to be advecting onshore in March, let alone May. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Typical May airmass, nothing to see here The coldest 850mb anomalies actually bypass WA state and dive into CA... 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The coldest 850mb anomalies actually bypass WA state and dive into CA... Yeah the best jet dynamics slam into the OR/CA border and then that whole airmass advects southward with ease. It's like a time machine back to 2011. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It looks increasingly likely that we will be seeing very potent Spring airmasses two months in a row. That late season SSW sure did shake things up quite a bit, because we've rapidly flipped the script from 2012-2022 +EPO/+PDO to a 2011 style progression. Who saw this coming? Hopefully this is the anti-2013. Recall the SSW in January 2013 is what set in motion the collapse of the multiyear -PDO/-PMM/-NAO regime we were in. Though it could be SSW was simply the conduit through which the change manifested, as the solar maximum IPWP extension was due anyway. It’s the same reason I’ve been targeting the early 2020s for a strong multiyear Niña/-PDO since at least 2016. The primal source for this variability is external+resonant forcing(s) on the Indo-Pacific warm pool. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Hopefully this is the anti-2013. Recall the SSW in January 2013 is what set in motion the collapse of the multiyear -PDO/-PMM/-NAO regime we were in. Though it could be SSW was simply the conduit through which the change manifested, as the solar maximum IPWP extension was due anyway. It’s the same reason I’ve been targeting the early 2020s for a strong multiyear Niña/-PDO since at least 2016. If so, hopefully our decade long sabbatical of much warmer and drier than average warm seasons will end this year. 6 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Kind of have a gut feeling for next winter being all or nothing. Either an at-least 2008-tier monster, or a dud. Not feeling an in-between outcome. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, Phil said: Hopefully this is the anti-2013. Recall the SSW in January 2013 is what set in motion the collapse of the multiyear -PDO/-PMM/-NAO regime we were in. Though it could be SSW was simply the conduit through which the change manifested, as the solar maximum IPWP extension was due anyway. It’s the same reason I’ve been targeting the early 2020s for a strong multiyear Niña/-PDO since at least 2016. The primal source for this variability is external+resonant forcing(s) on the Indo-Pacific warm pool. I would prefer this to be the anti-1976, but i'll settle for 2013 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: If so, hopefully our decade long sabbatical of much warmer and drier than average warm seasons will end this year. We’ll see. The new ECMWF weeklies do offer some hope for those wanting a legitimately cool start to summer in the PNW. The subsidence that develops between 130E-dateline (basically over the eastern IPWP) in June (as modeled) is strongly correlated to warm season -PNA. It was one of the hallmarks of the 2008-12 era. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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