Phishy Wx Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 if KGEG does not hit 80 tomorrow, it'll beat the record for latest 80 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: 500mb pattern at hour 240 almost looks primed for another ULL to drop down You’re gonna like this 12z EPS run. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Phil said: EPS weeklies’ high temp matrix for Dallas TX. This is suicide weather. Talk about hopeless. Even worse: 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Even worse: Worse yet: 4 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phil said: You’re gonna like this 12z EPS run. But I like the EPS too. Go figure. It shows my favorite summer pattern over the holiday weekend. A ULL to the northwest with warm weather... but not hot. Control run is basically the same. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 OMG SQUEEEE!!!! A day that started in the 50’s and is now up to 71!!! And partly sunny!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS. Looks like some marine influence thereafter. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Pretty breezy outside 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS. Looks like some marine influence thereafter. Heat just brings crashes. Too many extremes. Stable is the way to go. 2 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS. Looks like some marine influence thereafter. I can still get on board with this cause...still no massive 4CH! What are your thoughts on the very early monsoon season starting up? Seems unusual for a La Niña. 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 75 in North Bend and sunny. Summer perfection today. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Phil said: Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS. Looks like some marine influence thereafter. Absolutely gorgeous. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, Kayla said: I can still get on board with this cause...still no massive 4CH! What are your thoughts on the very early monsoon season starting up? Seems unusual for a La Niña. The big high over the central US seems to be advecting moisture into NM/4-corners region, hence the early convection. I think? I’m not well versed in the SW US monsoon. I think as we get later into July, that Central CONUS ridge is going to blow up massively, perhaps even influencing your weather up there in MT. Could be that New England and the westside PNW are the only places to escape it. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Heat just brings crashes. Too many extremes. Stable is the way to go. Unless you live in Texas. In which case heat brings more heat. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Death machine. Upper 100s heat indices and no heat headlines. Those folks must be super acclimated to this s**t. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 69 in Tacoma 72 out here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, Phil said: The big high over the central US seems to be advecting moisture into NM/4-corners region, hence the early convection. I think? I’m not well versed in the SW US monsoon. I think as we get later into July, that Central CONUS ridge is going to blow up massively, perhaps even influencing your weather up there in MT. Could be that New England and the westside PNW are the only places to escape it. In the PNW... that usually means ULLs offshore or to the northwest. Similar to what the EPS shows over the holiday weekend. It's just an ideal set up because with the center of low pressure to the west... we don't get stuck in marine layer and drizzle like we do when it's to the east of us over Montana and Idaho. But its also not hot. We end up with lots of summer perfection days like today. 1 1 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Euro shows a couple days in the mid 80s then a crash and some light precip chances…might get a little precip before the heat too we will see. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Pulling from notation way back when I took Calc, but would this be the derivative of the AAM with respect to time? If so, it seems like there would be some way better ways to explain it in layman’s terms. 3 hours ago, Phil said: Correct, rate of change w/ respect to time. Sometimes referred to as AAM tendency. I’m terrible at straightforward explanations, sorry. Great stuff guys, love this college level met talk. NWS disc's will include lots of jargon but hardly any of the reasoning behind it. Little bits of logistics like this are how I even built my knowledge on the weather in the first place 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Euro shows a couple days in the mid 80s then a crash and some light precip chances…might get a little precip before the heat too we will see. Always add 3 or 4 degrees to the EPS output in the summer. That means we peak in the upper 80s and then stabilize in the mid 70s. Goldilocks weather. I assume reality will be a little more variable in the long range but still really nice. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Always add 3 or 4 degrees to the EPS output in the summer. That means we peak in the upper 80s and then stabilize in the mid 70s. Goldilocks weather. I assume reality will be a little more variable in the long range but still really nice. Lows in the 50s. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Always add 3 or 4 degrees to the EPS output in the summer. That means we peak in the upper 80s and then stabilize in the mid 70s. Goldilocks weather. I assume reality will be a little more variable in the long range but still really nice. Typically since my location is near the water the temp outputs are pretty accurate on the euro so I don’t have to really add in anything for the cool bias. Go inland 5 miles and it’s a different story. 4 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Lows in the 50s. Pretty mild! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 I just took my sweatshirt off for the first time since I think September. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I just took my sweatshirt off for the first time since I think September. You run much colder than me. I have been in a t-shirt and shorts every time I have worked in the yard since April. I would have been melting in a sweatshirt and jeans yesterday afternoon on the deck. And it was only in the upper 60s. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Just a few weeks until my summer vacation, after that's over it will be early August and we can start running out the clock on summer. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just a few weeks until my summer vacation, after that's over it will be early August and we can start running out the clock on summer. There are currently 71.54861111 days remaining in summer. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just a few weeks until my summer vacation, after that's over it will be early August and we can start running out the clock on summer. Hoping for an early spring next year. I figure we are already running out the clock until the next warm season starts and hopefully it's good one this time! 3 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS. Looks like some marine influence thereafter. The heat signal that's going up seems pretty decent though. Few places will hit 90+ so looks good for a couple of days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post T-Town Posted June 21, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 We seem to have gone from friends to roommates. 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 War mout. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 59 minutes ago, Phil said: Death machine. Upper 100s heat indices and no heat headlines. Those folks must be super acclimated to this s**t. I don't mind the heat and have a high tolerance for it. But if it's going to be that hot, it better be sunny most of the time. I'd rather live in San Antonio or Dallas than Houston. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: I don't mind the heat and have a high tolerance for it. But if it's going to be that hot, it better be sunny most of the time. I'd rather live in San Antonio or Dallas than Houston. I don't have a high tolerance for the heat. Ever since the time I got dehydrated despite my best efforts to drink water regularly, then got a migraine from the dehydration, then got severe nausea from the migraine, then couldn't even keep water down due to the nausea, which made the dehydration worse, which made the migraine worse, which made the nausea worse (it was not fun, not in the least, and to make it worse I was alone in a remote area and not well enough to drive to the nearest hospital): I have made a policy of just putting things on hold and not doing much in hot weather. 2 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, T-Town said: We seem to have gone from friends to roommates. Wonder if those two were in our neighborhood last week. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Unless you live in Texas. In which case heat brings more heat. Or here the last nine summers. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Nice looking EPS run with a decent crash following the heat spike. Hopefully the back end of this thing keeps getting trimmed back. 7 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, Alex_Snakes said: Wonder if those two were in our neighborhood last week. Could be. I didn’t realize you were in Tacoma and in the west end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Phil said: Heat signal only lasts a few days on the 12z EPS. Looks like some marine influence thereafter. Marine influence arrives just in time for my Sunriver trip! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Kayla said: I can still get on board with this cause...still no massive 4CH! What are your thoughts on the very early monsoon season starting up? Seems unusual for a La Niña. 1988 was very similar 'In contrast, the Great Plains drought in the spring and summer 1988 coincided with an early monsoon that was also very intense." 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: 1988 was very similar 'In contrast, the Great Plains drought in the spring and summer 1988 coincided with an early monsoon that was also very intense." Have family in New Mexico and the Southwest has been very dry. An early, intense monsoon would be most welcome there. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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