One of our own #wawx members is recovering from a pretty bad bout of Covid. He's been in the community for a decade plus now, I've talked with him on Twitter since I joined the platform.
If any of you guys have an acct over there, go and wish him a speedy further recovery.
Hey all, I'm officially new to this forum but I've lurked around here every once in a few days since December 2021 to follow on the snow forecasts, and ever since I just generally lurked to follow the weather while learning things bit by bit.
I withheld on making an account because I don't have anything to contribute, I believe, and I wasn't sure how a newbie or an outsider would be treated. I have a very vague sense on how to read GFS or ECMWF maps but have no idea how to use them to pred
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 64/34 there was 0.01” of rainfall and the sun was out 52% of the time. The average wind speed was 13.1MPH and the highest wind was 33 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 63/42 the record high of 85 was set in 1990 and the record low of 27 was set in 1928. The most rainfall of 1.90” was in 1956 the record snowfall was 0.2” in 2004. Last year the H/L was 64/29. Here in MBY I had 0.09” of rain since 7AM yesterday and the overnight low of 53 was around midnight. At the current time it is cloudy and 58 here.
For the early afternoon SRH is limited but CAPE is huge. The CAPE is probably overstated given entrainment, but this does certainly support large hail
Later in the day the hodograph blows out as the LLJ kicks in. This looks more like a QLCS tornado threat as a presumably linear feature moves in.
We've got a moderate for severe from SPC and for rain from WPC:
Some ML guidance shows the highest threat more towards my area like nadocast:
But others like CSU is a bit further west:
I'm inclined to think the biggest severe weather threat will be further west towards OKC. I expect to see several strong tornadoes and reports of very large hail. As the storms congeal we will get a wind/QLCS threat morphing into a heavy rain/flood threat overnight. I don't think we will get anything truly crazy, but a couple of inches wouldn't shock me.
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