February 2016 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

Looking like february should have an issue finishing above average

[FV-Mike]

Los Angeles hit a record today of 87 degrees

[westMJim]

Believe it or not Grand Rapids, MI is still in the running for a top ten in the lowest seasonal snow fall amount for Grand Rapids! As of today (before todays snow fall which tight now looks to be a trace) GRR has reported 27.8” of snow this season. Below is the top ten least snow fall amounts for Grand Rapids. Please note the reporting locations changes 3 times over that span.

1.       1905/06  20”

2.       1906/07  30.1”

3.       1948/49  33.2”

4.       1936/37  34.3”

5.       1920/21  35.6”

6.       1943/44  35.7”

7.       1982/83   35.9”

8.       1908/09  37.4”

9.       1927/28 37.5”

10.   1952/53  39.7”

So yes as of February 9, 2016 Grand is very much in play for a top ten least snow fall amount

SlimJim

[Grizzcoat]

Not  a bad little system for Sunday.

[hlcater]

Not  a bad little system for Sunday.USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_129.gif

Really is too bad that it looks like it'll warm up shortly after this system . I'd like for the snow to hang around awhile.

[Geos]

Yeah this weekend clipper looks juiced up. This current system didn't do much.

 

[gosaints]

Been awhile since a solid hybrid hit the area.  Decent low end warning potential probably.  Weak and south could play out as well 

[Tom]

It's pretty much the battle between the GFS/GGEM vs Euro...although, the Euro did tick north on last night's run.  Might have to start a thread later tonight.

 

The Euro develops a stronger SLP while the GFS is more of an open wave.

 

 

[Tony]

Almost looks like 2 seperate systems the models are showing instead of 1 big phased system. GFS has been on the clipper for several runs now.

[Tom]

It's pretty amazing to see what could be the highest temperatures ever recorded in the Stratosphere over the North Pole today/tomorrow.  Personally, I didn't think that would have come close this year during a Strong El Nino.  Fascinating meteorology going on all over the planet.

 

Euro backed off the longer range torchy look near the Lakes later next week.  The Plains still look to bake though.  Might have to deal with an active thermal boundary later next week.  GFS has some interesting pacific waves tracking across the northern tier of states.

[gosaints]

Euro is disjointed then the southern stream takes over.

[james1976]

GFS has been the better model this winter. Id side with that. Still a few days to go though.

[gosaints]

GFS has been the better model this winter. Id side with that. Still a few days to go though.

GFS has had its fair share of issues with northern stream events...

[gosaints]

It's pretty amazing to see what could be the highest temperatures ever recorded in the Stratosphere over the North Pole today/tomorrow.  Personally, I didn't think that would have come close this year during a Strong El Nino.  Fascinating meteorology going on all over the planet.

 

Euro backed off the longer range torchy look near the Lakes later next week.  The Plains still look to bake though.  Might have to deal with an active thermal boundary later next week.  GFS has some interesting pacific waves tracking across the northern tier of states.

EHH... GFS still pretty darn warm.  It pretty much roasts you

[Iowa2015]

12z gives me 5ish inches  Sunday Monday  storm

[Tony]

Whatever falls will melt away fairly quickly next week. Let's just get all this over with and get to a nice warm spring!

[Tony]

GEFS Mean in case anyone is interested

[Geos]

It's pretty much the battle between the GFS/GGEM vs Euro...although, the Euro did tick north on last night's run.  Might have to start a thread later tonight.

 

The Euro develops a stronger SLP while the GFS is more of an open wave.

 

EURO with a stronger SLP... looks like a disjointed mess. 

[Tony]

EURO with a stronger SLP... looks like a disjointed mess. 

Looking like a track near the Apps. Southern Illinois/Indiana do well with this run. Kinda looking like the Ukie but I believe that was a little farther north/stronger.

[Tony]

Massive H on the EC...I can only see this cutting farther west of the high but how far west is the question. The potential is there for a big storm.

[gosaints]

Massive H on the EC...I can only see this cutting farther west of the high but how far west is the question. The potential is there for a big storm.

Could go either way..  I would currently favor a more GFS like solution

[ToastedRavs]

This system that passed through today gave us a nice two inches with no wind.  It was nice to get a snowfall that out performed and had zero wind with it.  And now DSM is actually above normal for snowfall this season, amazingly.  12z runs give us a solid 2 1/2" to 5 inches for this weekend's storm.  IT all adds up, even if it is a deuce here, a deuce there.

[Geos]

Little better up this way on the GFS.

 

[Iowa2015]

9.5 decent valentine times into Monday storm

[bud2380]

If the 00z runs hold then we should start a thread for this one.

[Tom]

Seems like the GFS is stronger with the first initial northern piece and weaker with the southern energy that kicks out later.  Euro has a weak northern piece and develops a stronger SLP along the southern end of the developing trough.

 

18z GEFS ....backed off quite a bit...

 

I noticed both the Euro Op/Control have been trending NW...if that southern piece becomes the main event, we'll need it to amp up early to cut towards the Lakes.

[Tom]

Euro Op/Para take this storm neg tilt running up the Apps....this has the potential to be big given the upstream ridging along the EC...

[Niko]

Seems like the GFS is stronger with the first initial northern piece and weaker with the southern energy that kicks out later.  Euro has a weak northern piece and develops a stronger SLP along the southern end of the developing trough.

 

18z GEFS ....backed off quite a bit...

 

I noticed both the Euro Op/Control have been trending NW...if that southern piece becomes the main event, we'll need it to amp up early to cut towards the Lakes.

How cool would it be to get a massive snowstorm right after a big coldwave. We just need this storm to move more west. Cant wait to see how this will turn out. It has potential. Currently, this storm is in Japan, so long ways till it reaches the States. Models are clueless. Good to see though that there is a potential for a big storm somewhere. EC might be looking at a heavy rainstorm from this.

[Money]

0z gfs continues the trend of increasing snowfall

 

Widespread 4-8 for pretty much everyone in here

[Tom]

Started a thread for the Valentine's Day/President's Day storm threat...

[gosaints]

0z gfs continues the trend of increasing snowfall

 

Widespread 4-8 for pretty much everyone in here

8 might be a stretch. Counting on 20:1 ratios is never a good idea

[Money]

8 might be a stretch. Counting on 20:1 ratios is never a good idea

True but you never know with the temps that will be in place for this

[gosaints]

True but you never know with the temps that will be in place for this

Not saying it wont happen just been pixie dust burned to many times

[Tom]

Finally seeing some significant 10mb warming in the arctic which will more than likely produce Winter's last real stance later this month into March.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

[westMJim]

Its sunny and a cold 22° here at my house with just a trace of snow on the ground.  The average high on this date in Grand Rapids is 30° and the average low is 15.1° the record high was 69° in 1999 and the record low was -22° in 1899. On average we have 4.8” of snow on the ground and has ranged from 0 to 22” in fact in 74% of the years there has been at least one inch of snow on the ground on this date and in 14% of the years there has been more then 12” on the ground. Not so here in Grand Rapids this year. You have to go back to 2009 to find a year where February 11 did not have any snow on the ground. Of course the high temp here that year on this date was 56°

[Tom]

Depending on how much the snow pack can build near the Midwest/Lakes region, the coming transition in the upper levels later next week may not effect ground temps as much.  Noticing the GFS/Euro are getting cooler and keeping temps at bay.  We'll see if trends continue.

[Tom]

Arctic front sweeping through has sparked a decent burst of snow.  Parts of the area south of I-80 saw a quick hit of snowfall.  Polar Vortex makes a visit this weekend for the Eastern Lakes/New England.  Might not be the last time though, however, ensembles showing a setup very similar to what we are seeing now as the pattern reloads.

 

I'm seeing the Euro trending cooler near the Lakes and now keeping temps below freezing through Thursday.  The re-developing +PNA after the 19th keeps the trough nearby.

[gosaints]

+PNA excitement continues.....

 

Have seen many muted torches this time of year.  In fact its expected.  strong signal still this the east coast bomb just helps to fight it off

[gosaints]

Goodluck with excitement out of this medium range pattern

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160212/12Z/f180/sfcna.png

[gosaints]

East coast for the kill?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021212/gem_apcpn_us_17.png