October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SnarkyGoblin]

26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM wants to retro

RIP bandwidth quota

@ifred

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

RIP bandwidth quota

@ifred

too much? Need an easy way to scale it down 

[BLI snowman]

Fog and low clouds hanging around a bit better today.

[Kayla]

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

My wager is still on the GFS being too progressive. Maybe the Euro was too amplified as well.

Regardless of what does end up happening, (my money is somewhere between the GFS and Euro) the retrogression looks very short lived and will likely not cause very meaningful weather for the PNW lowlands.

The GOA energy continues to show no signs of slowing down even on the extended and on the ensembles. 

[Brennan]

65-70 and no rain for the foreseeable future. This stretch of weather is INSANITY. Feels like early September. I like extreme anomalies, and i’d be thrilled to see this ridge continue to park over us until Mid November.  Bet we’d have 6 weeks of snow and below freezing to follow if it happened.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Regardless of what does end up happening, (my money is somewhere between the GFS and Euro) the retrogression looks very short lived and will likely not cause very meaningful weather for the PNW lowlands.

The GOA energy continues to show no signs of slowing down even on the extended and on the ensembles. 

I agree, this first attempt at retrogression will likely fall short. I’m more interested in the next attempt late this month.

[Winterdog]

This is ridiculous.  The 12Z Ensembles show only 4 or 5 members that drop below the mean through the entire run.  The operational is an outlier only in its warmth, certainly not at all in the duration of its lack of precipitation.  This is getting beyond crazy.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

8 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Regardless of what does end up happening, (my money is somewhere between the GFS and Euro) the retrogression looks very short lived and will likely not cause very meaningful weather for the PNW lowlands.

The GOA energy continues to show no signs of slowing down even on the extended and on the ensembles. 

Exactly. The bottom line is...

 

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, Brennan said:

65-70 and no rain for the foreseeable future. This stretch of weather is INSANITY. Feels like early September. I like extreme anomalies, and i’d be thrilled to see this ridge continue to park over us until Mid November.  Bet we’d have 6 weeks of snow and below freezing to follow if it happened.

In a couple weeks this 500mb pattern becomes a foggy and most likely cold inversion pattern in lowland/interior valleys, at the very least. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Brennan said:

65-70 and no rain for the foreseeable future. This stretch of weather is INSANITY. Feels like early September. I like extreme anomalies, and i’d be thrilled to see this ridge continue to park over us until Mid November.  Bet we’d have 6 weeks of snow and below freezing to follow if it happened.

I thought you live in SC now?

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Exactly. The bottom line is...

 

More rain in Death Valley than the Willamette Valley

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

When the Nisqually quake hit, we were living in the Willamette Valley, and my wife and I worked about a mile from each other in Corvallis.  I worked in a building that was on a ground level concrete foundation, and my wife worked at the OSU Credit Union there on 9th and Spruce, which had 1 level under ground.  I didn't feel a thing.  My wife (who was pregnant at the time) said all of the sudden she felt really unsteady, and thought she was going to pass out.  a little more time passed and a picture started tapping on the wall by her, and she noticed people in the lobby were looking around trying to figure out what was happening.  At that point she realized it might be an earthquake but had not idea it was so far away.

Never felt one myself (that I remember), I lived in LA until I was 4, and we had a big one during that time period.  My mom initially thought my brothers were roughhousing until the shaking got going then went into a panic trying to round us all up (she's from Georgia and had never been in an Earthquake).  My dad (born in California) just stood by the sliding glass door watching the water slosh out of our pool.

On the weather side, the past couple of mornings have been quite foggy.  I am really over the smoke and dry weather.  My poor puppy is not going to know what to do when the rains really get going.  She was born in late April, but was never in a position where she *had* to go outside before the late spring rains stopped.  The one or 2 times we have been outside during brief showers here she look at her back very confused and bites at the air LOL

I was living in the Portland metro area when the Nisqually quake hit. I do not remember feeling the p-wave, but I did feel the s-wave. It was quite gentle. What was worrying to me was the duration. Strong earthquakes do not only have higher intensities of shaking, they have longer durations of it. So a long, gentle quake meant someplace was getting hit hard by a strong quake.

I was born in California, and one of my lasting memories as a small child is being terrified by a minor earthquake, to the point of not even being able to cry out in fear from it.

No fog this morning in Vancouver. At least, none in the neighbourhoods where I live, where I work, or the ones in between that I commute through. And quite smoky as well. There is now a forest fire near Coquitlam that is doing a good job of gunking up our air quality. It started over the weekend so is almost certainly human-caused.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

More rain in Death Valley than the Willamette Valley

Or in the Fraser Valley.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I thought you live in SC now?

I was just about to post this, you beat me to it. 

[Cloud]

It’s kinda sad to me that the cloud and drizzle we are having today is the closest thing to rain we’ll be seeing for a while. This is October man. 

[TacomaWx]

54 and cloudy for a low. Haven’t gotten down into the 40s for 2 weeks now. 

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I thought you live in SC now?

Probably fled the dewpoints.

[Cloud]

The record for number of 70+ days in October is 8 for SEA. Models guidance would suggest we break this on the 9th or 10th day of this month. Some crazy shiet. 
 

We are literally rewriting our record book one month and one day at a time. 

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The record for number of 70+ days in October is 8 for SEA. Models guidance would suggest we break this on the 9th or 10th day of this month. Some crazy shiet. 

And the record for number of 80+ days in Oct is 6 at PDX. That record will likely fall on the 9th as well. Unreal.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF not really backing down... shows rain moving in on Monday.

 

[Kayla]

12z Euro not backing down with next weeks clipper system.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Even though I’m going to be camping next weekend (Monday is Thanksgiving here), I will welcome the rain if it comes.

[Snownerd3000]

Almost time for me to dust off my wxbell subscription to begin model riding. 

[Deweydog]

Cliptastic!

[TacomaWx]

I have the 11th-16th off this month before starting a new job and have been contemplating going on a vacation somewhere. Have been thinking about possibly going to lake chelan or even Idaho for a few days. Might be kinda fun if this clipper system comes through. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF not really backing down... shows rain moving in on Monday.

 

It’s coming!!! 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Stat of the day...

SLE has only had two years where September saw less than 0.50" of rain and October had under 1" of rain:

1987

2008

oooooooohhhhhhh

 

2008-09

 

97.7". most ever in Spokane

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

And the record for number of 80+ days in Oct is 6 at PDX. That record will likely fall on the 9th as well. Unreal.

And this is all after the hottest week ever in July, the hottest month ever in August, and the hottest September ever. The cold equivalent in the winter seems incomprehensibly ridiculously impossible. In fact, any single one of those record equivalents does.

[Phil]

Euro not blinking yet. Though there was a pretty big change upstream so it could back off a bit by 00z.

[TT-SEA]

Low clouds holding tough... might not be any clearing today in some places.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Stat of the day...

SLE has only had two years where September saw less than 0.50" of rain and October had under 1" of rain:

1987

2008

Nearly 30" of snow in this area that winter it seems. Eastern Washington County did well for once!

[Phil]

Worth noting the GEM also attempts to retrograde the ridge. So even if the Euro is overdone, it’s the GFS that’s the biggest outlier.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like another system coming down after the first one on the ECMWF.    

[Deweydog]

Reload!

[Kayla]

Now THAT is a Niña pattern! Textbook.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Now THAT is a Niña pattern!

Glad the the Euro is showing this instead of the GFS

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Glad the the Euro is showing this instead of the GFS

I’m still really skeptical on it sliding that far west. Will be interesting to see what the EPS shows.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Not gonna get too excited until a couple more days pass and it’s still forecasting rain.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

I’m still really skeptical on it sliding that far west. Will be interesting to see what the EPS shows.

If it goes that far west it looks like your area might see snow?

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

If it goes that far west it looks like your area might see snow?

Yeah 700mb temps drop to -12c so plenty cold enough to snow here. It’s pretty moisture starved but still good enough for 2-4” at face value.