Dave Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 43 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Crazy that it’s only the 5th and the warmest October on record is already basically a foregone conclusion. I'm pretty ok with it. October is generally a pretty benign weather month and it's nice to have pleasantly warm temps. We can both agree though that some serious dumpage of rain needs to happen asap. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 45 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Jan 1937 huh? Holy Cow Turds!!!! Sum 543 71 - - 1701 0 1.94 36.0 - Average 17.5 2.3 9.9 -19.7 - - - - 11.5 Normal 34.5 24.7 29.6 - 1097 0 1.97 12.3 1937-01-01 22 7 14.5 -13.7 50 0 0.00 0.0 3 1937-01-02 18 4 11.0 -17.2 54 0 0.01 0.1 3 1937-01-03 26 4 15.0 -13.3 50 0 T T 2 1937-01-04 38 20 29.0 0.6 36 0 0.11 T 2 1937-01-05 20 4 12.0 -16.5 53 0 0.11 3.3 5 1937-01-06 10 -2 4.0 -24.6 61 0 0.00 0.0 5 1937-01-07 7 -7 0.0 -28.7 65 0 0.00 0.0 5 1937-01-08 7 -10 -1.5 -30.3 66 0 0.02 0.0 5 1937-01-09 18 5 11.5 -17.4 53 0 0.08 1.2 6 1937-01-10 22 1 11.5 -17.5 53 0 0.06 1.0 7 1937-01-11 14 -1 6.5 -22.6 58 0 T T 7 1937-01-12 11 -5 3.0 -26.2 62 0 T 0.1 7 1937-01-13 20 6 13.0 -16.3 52 0 0.23 5.0 11 1937-01-14 16 12 14.0 -15.4 51 0 0.15 1.0 12 1937-01-15 22 13 17.5 -12.0 47 0 0.18 3.8 13 1937-01-16 13 -1 6.0 -23.6 59 0 0.06 T 13 1937-01-17 18 2 10.0 -19.7 55 0 0.02 2.1 13 1937-01-18 20 2 11.0 -18.8 54 0 T T 13 1937-01-19 12 -12 0.0 -29.9 65 0 0.00 0.0 13 1937-01-20 6 -19 -6.5 -36.5 71 0 0.00 0.0 13 1937-01-21 5 -8 -1.5 -31.6 66 0 0.16 3.5 16 1937-01-22 11 -3 4.0 -26.2 61 0 0.02 1.1 16 1937-01-23 14 6 10.0 -20.3 55 0 0.10 2.8 17 1937-01-24 17 1 9.0 -21.4 56 0 T 0.5 16 1937-01-25 29 8 18.5 -12.0 46 0 0.24 2.4 17 1937-01-26 31 26 28.5 -2.1 36 0 0.11 3.4 18 1937-01-27 27 16 21.5 -9.2 43 0 0.18 2.0 18 1937-01-28 19 12 15.5 -15.2 49 0 0.04 2.7 21 1937-01-29 17 2 9.5 -21.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 21 1937-01-30 14 -3 5.5 -25.4 59 0 T T 20 1937-01-31 19 -9 5.0 -26.0 60 0 0.06 T 19 Holy phuck. How is this even real. Subfreezing monthly average in Las Vegas. Oh and a 31/9 day too. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Dave said: I'm pretty ok with it. October is generally a pretty benign weather month and it's nice to have pleasantly warm temps. We can both agree though that some serious dumpage of rain needs to happen asap. Yeah I hear ya. I’m totally ok with runaway inflation too, things are still pretty cheap here compared to other first world countries. I’m sure we can both agree gas needs to get below $3/gallon ASAP tho. Edited October 6, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Holy phuck. How is this even real. Subfreezing monthly average in Las Vegas. Oh and a 31/9 day too. that would kill all the tropical vegetation in modern day vegas if it recurred 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Oh and here's how the actually cold part of Nevada was doing. This could pass for a winter month in some areas of interior Alaska. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 was the whole west side of the country in the deep freeze in Jan 37? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 00z GFS doesn’t bring a single drop of rain to the region. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: that would kill all the tropical vegetation in modern day vegas if it recurred Yeah... a fan palm or date palm is not surviving a month like that, plain and simple. I believe something like this happened in the December 1983 blast in south TX. Most palm trees were fried and were not replanted afterward. 5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: was the whole west side of the country in the deep freeze in Jan 37? Pretty much. From the looks of it CA and NV got the best of it though. Both states set their cold record that month with -45 and -50 respectively. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Well, this sucks. Way to go, Rob. That dumb moron. He should he shamed and have several rocks chucked at him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 00Z GFS looks closer to what the ensembles have been showing. Actually even less. So much for winter I guess? 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z GFS looks closer to what the ensembles have been showing. Actually even less. So much for winter I guess? White Pumpkin CANCEL! I just made that up. Not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 5 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Really surprising how little rain the coming trough is going to provide given how it morphs into a closed low over the area. Looks like it will provide a solid kick down in temps though. Looking like some lows in the 30s are in store. Is it really surprising if the system is originating in Siberia. Not exactly a typically moist source region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 D8, almost no precip anywhere in the lower-48. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Is it really surprising if the system is originating in Siberia. Not exactly a typically moist source region. And the fact that now its just a little ULL scooting through northern BC. Not getting that one day shot of rain on Monday that was shown previous runs does suck. The Bolt Creek fire will continue to smolder indefinitely it appears. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 46 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Yeah I hear ya. I’m totally ok with runaway inflation too, things are still pretty cheap here compared to other first world countries. I’m sure we can both agree gas needs to get below $3/gallon ASAP tho. considering what OPEC did today you can kiss cheap(er) gas goodbye for awhile, at least thru the midterms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 00Z GEFS looks similar to its previous runs for Monday and now the GFS agrees. As Kayla said... you need ensemble support or it doesn't mean much. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 I screw in the orange porch light bulbs this afternoon and everything goes to SH*T. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z GEFS looks similar to its previous runs for Monday and now the GFS agrees. As Kayla said... you need ensemble support or it doesn't mean much. What you really need is ICON support. I swear it’s the magical model that nobody takes seriously for some reason. It never bit on the trough solution. Didn’t even flinch. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: considering what OPEC did today you can kiss cheap(er) gas goodbye for awhile, at least thru the midterms. Close to 9 bucks a gallon up here. But our funny coloured money ain’t worth much. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Watch 00z runs tonight not only dig further west, but hold the chilly trough over us Day 6-10. 00z GFS in 43 minutes 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: LMAO. Yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: What you really need is ICON support. I swear it’s the magical model that nobody takes seriously for some reason. It never bit on the trough solution. Didn’t even flinch. I take it very seriously. It actually performs very well in snow situations up here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: I take it very seriously. It actually performs very well in snow situations up here. It’s really good with QPF in my opinion. Much better than the over-optimistic Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 0z GEM also trended east with the trough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said: It’s really good with QPF in my opinion. Much better than the over-optimistic Euro. You don’t often see it throw out ridiculous snow amounts like the other models do. I think it’s run at a pretty good resolution. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: It’s really good with QPF in my opinion. Much better than the over-optimistic Euro. I always thought the ICON runs way too wet... but I have not looked at it for precip in a long time. The ICON can come up with some really goofy solutions in the 4-7 day range and then suddenly snap back to the model consensus as it gets closer. It did pretty well with this system, but that is not always the case. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I always thought the ICON runs way too wet... but I have not looked at it for precip in a long time. The ICON can come up with some really goofy solutions in the 4-7 day range and then suddenly snap back to the model consensus as it gets closer. It did pretty well with this system, but that is not always the case. I do remember reading somewhere that it’s more like a mesoscale model. More useful at closer range. I have no idea how factual that is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I do remember reading somewhere that it’s more like a mesoscale model. More useful at closer range. I have no idea how factual that is. ICON is my favorite model. mostly because it comes out first. but sometimes it shows what i want. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 29 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: What you really need is ICON support. I swear it’s the magical model that nobody takes seriously for some reason. It never bit on the trough solution. Didn’t even flinch. Probably because Andrew used to hype it up so much. 1 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Ensembles look like summer will continue 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Of all the model runs I've ever seen, the 00z GFS sure was one of them. 2 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Not a drop of precip out to 10/22. 1 2 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Lol that jinx sure is working its magic 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 I'm not sure what's more enjoyable. Looking at the 00z GFS tonight, or stepping in dog poop barefoot. Cat puke is also acceptable. 00z ECMWF in 18 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 The Coyotes were busy tonight, they are prepping for a November for the ages! IMG_8140.MOV 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Probably because Andrew used to hype it up so much. The ICON resembles its name. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 On 10/4/2022 at 10:30 PM, DJ Droppin said: I was fairly confident last night that the EURO was going to lead the way. A nice cooldown for a few days, crisp nights, and inversions will begin to strengthen slowly. On 10/4/2022 at 10:32 PM, snow_wizard said: Yup...you called it. I was actually a bit skeptical. Tonight's total cave of the GFS, GEFS, and GEM is pretty convincing though. This cold shot is going to be very noticeable after what we've been through. Well, that didn't age well for either of us. Like a moldy cottage cheese. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Running out of time… 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Running out of time… MLK day is just around the corner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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