November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Models are giving a harsh reminder not to spike the football too early. And how fickle the details can be, even in the very near term. 

This is definitely a band aid and bailing wire type situation, but it could work.  I'm becoming increasingly convinced on the long run of cold temps though.  The snow is going to be the challenge.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, seattleweatherguy said:

Is it cold enough?

It is defintely cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

This progression with the jet suppression in my opinion is very plausible.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is definitely a band aid and bailing wire type situation, but it could work.  I'm becoming increasingly convinced on the long run of cold temps though.  The snow is going to be the challenge.

No point in it being cold if there is no snow, yes, that is my opinion.  And also yes, I know we need cold to get snow, but without snow, cold is meh.

Edited November 27, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

On the East Coast, Nor’Easters bomb out offshore to the East of the major cities. Their counter clockwise motion sucks arctic air into the storm from their NW keeping the cities cold and snowy.  The opposite happens here since the counter clockwise motion of a bombing low to our West pushes milder SW onshore flow into our area.

If a bombed out low manages to track in around the latitude of Seatle it can pull some impressive backwash cold in behind it though.

[Meatyorologist]

Whoa, the GFS does some crazy things to the NE Pacific beyond day 7. Not Exactly unfavorable. The theme of blocking there looks to continue.

[The Cats Meow]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

No point in it being cold if there is no snow, yes, that is my opinion.

It is if all you want is to tabulate a statistic to talk about in twenty years.

Most here I think want some snow.

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Pardon my amateur layperson, why is it bad if the low bombs out? Nor'easters along the Atlantic bomb out and give snowstorms along the East Coast? Or is that just wildly different from what's happening here? 

Hopefully these gifs will be self explanatory. Nor’easters bombs vs pacific bombs. back side = cold, front = warmer/milder. 
 

Essentially, we are on the front side, which will allow more milder/warmer air. Not something you want. 
 

[TacomaWx]

Stays decently cold and there’s still snow chances still very marginal at best though. 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 10:

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Bloody cold GFS run.  I just hope that shot of snow works out for the Seattle area on Wednesday.  If so there will be some happy people on here.  Stays cold after that!

But we all know the GFS is going to be too aggressive with cold temps... its basically a given.   

I remember a couple weeks ago when Andrew was getting snow... the GFS was showing 925 temps of -4C over Seattle at 36 hours out while the ECMWF was showing +2C.   The ECMWF ended up being right.   It just has major issues assuming cold air can easily move south on this side of the mountains.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

what he said

lots of southerly flow until the low sinks south of the area

we need to thread the needle around here and this time it doesn't look like it will work out for us

maybe later in the week a disturbance will slide by to the south and pull some some cold air and mix with some light precipitation flowing north

It's way more complicated than that though.  Even if the low moves in north of us the cold from the north can still push down behind it.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Whoa, the GFS does some crazy things to the NE Pacific beyond day 7. Not Exactly unfavorable. The theme of blocking there looks to continue.

Interesting how later next week looks mildly interesting now…but with how the last couple days of model riding went it’s pretty hard to have much faith in any solution. 

[Jbolin]

17 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

It's not a rug pull.  The models just have a hard time with the low dropping south and developing over the water off the BC Coast.  Happens all the time in the winter.  Could still change yet again but as things get closer it seems unlikely.

 

It's a rug pull, trust me. 

[RentonHill]

GEM doing GEM things

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Whoa, the GFS does some crazy things to the NE Pacific beyond day 7. Not Exactly unfavorable. The theme of blocking there looks to continue.

The EPS has been advertising sustained blocking for a while now on the index forecasts.  Could be a very cold run coming up.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS 10 Day Precip:

Snowfall:

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM doing GEM things

It's in the envelope of possibility. 

[Nov1985]

A little reminiscent of the Jan 1, 2021 920mb record low near Alaska, here's a 953mb low next week that tracks right into the north pole (after weakening).

It messes with the Russian cold air supply from Dec 3 to 8 or so. That's a cool feature in this run. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But we all know the GFS is going to be too aggressive with cold temps... its basically a given.   

I remember a couple weeks ago when Andrew was getting snow... the GFS was showing 925 temps of -4C over Seattle at 36 hours out while the ECMWF was showing +2C.   The ECMWF ended up being right.   It just has major issues assuming cold air can easily move south on this side of the mountains.

In this case the ECMWF has been pretty cold too.  If we get snow cover followed by sustained offshore flow this could be pretty nippy.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

It's a rug pull, trust me. 

Judah screwing with us 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS 10 Day Precip:

Snowfall:

Nice Portland snowfall! What are temps like when snow falls here?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 4.5

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

It is if all you want is to tabulate a statistic to talk about in twenty years.

Most here I think want some snow.

Both actually.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

In this case the ECMWF has been pretty cold too.  If we get snow cover followed by sustained offshore flow this could be pretty nippy.

Maybe.

But you spend all summer mocking the extreme GFS temp output and then switch to treating it like gospel in the cold season.    It can't be both.  

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looking like a somewhat decent run for the Portland area and a long run of chilly temps 

 

Mate it's okay if people vent their frustrations about a very decent prospect going to waste. It's not like I can just spark up a detailed conversation with my roommate about why I'm disappointed.

This is the only place where I can throw around jargon and weather terms and have people understand their meaning and context. It's the perfect place to rant and be a weenie. Don't confuse venting with being ungrateful about a genuinely chilly regime amidst a tragically warming climate... I am also looking forward to the cooler weather. As I type I'm looking out the window watching the cold rain fall and it's very soothing.

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice Portland snowfall! What are temps like when snow falls here?

Temps are good with offshore flow from what I can see....

[snow_wizard]

This is almost getting a feel to it like our infrequent persistently cold winters.  The likes of 1916-17, 1948-49, 1978-79, 1992-93, etc.  As I've said before this will be a big test for the January curse.  Still a high chance that month will ruin it.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Mate it's okay if people vent their frustrations about a very decent prospect going to waste. It's not like I can just spark up a detailed conversation with my roommate about why I'm disappointed.

This is the only place where I can throw around jargon and weather terms and have people understand their meaning and context. It's the perfect place to rant and be a weenie. Don't confuse venting with being ungrateful about a genuinely chilly regime amidst a tragically warming climate... I am also looking forward to the cooler weather. As I type I'm looking out the window watching the cold rain fall and it's very soothing.

I think it's too early to be disappointed.  This is too complex.  It would appear Wednesday is going to be the make or break for this ending up being something special or not.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has been advertising sustained blocking for a while now on the index forecasts.  Could be a very cold run coming up.

I agree, Jim. Lots of potential for a casually cold winter this year. Nice to be chilly without much effort... Lately it seems the dominoes have been falling in all the wrong directions but this Fall it feels like we're crapping out -5F days like nothing.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice Portland snowfall! What are temps like when snow falls here?

For Day 5-6 temps 31-34, but with the bigger snowfall Day 8-9.5 temps well below freezing low level cold is impressive.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS Day 4.5

Pretty hard to be too upset by that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I agree, Jim. Lots of potential for a casually cold winter this year. Nice to be chilly without much effort... Lately it seems the dominoes have been falling in all the wrong directions but this Fall it feels like we're crapping out -5F days like nothing.

So well put!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think it's too early to be disappointed.  This is too complex.  It would appear Wednesday is going to be the make or break for this ending up being something special or not.

With the ECMWF showing 925 temps around +3C to +4C on Wednesday... it does not seem to be as close as the GFS makes it appear.

I need to see this change significantly to believe Wednesday will be snowy.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Call the Fantasy range GFS a Toyota, because it's going places.

(gets banned by fred)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe.

But you spend all summer mocking the extreme GFS temp output and then switch to treating it like gospel in the cold season.    It can't be both.  

You also can't base a forecast off one model, In this case the euro. That appears to be what you are doing.

[snow_wizard]

This is starting to look impressively cold to me.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

With the ECMWF showing 925 temps around +3C to +4C on Wednesday... it does not seem to be as close as the GFS makes it appear.

I need to see this change significantly to believe Wednesday will be snowy.

 

When there are 10 cold trends posted, there will be 1 Tim warm trend to counter.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Look at GFS at 280hrs, not to mention EPS has cold pattern the entire run.

That's going places.

[Slushy Inch]

Look at GFS at 280hrs. EPS also has cold pattern for entire run.