lowlandsnow Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Looks like less snowfall so far 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Current 30F here in Victoria with outflow modest outflow winds and a 19F dewpoint. That's actually pretty remarkable for early evening with a mixed atmosphere when most of the outflow zones were barely at freezing yesterday evening, even as far as Lytton. This setup isn't as nice, but it reminds me a bit of last Jan 5th earlier this year when the outflow arrived just as the system was coming ashore. Many models showed a changeover to rain, but it never quite happened and we ended up with 8" of snow. Could easily stay as snow to the north of here, I just hope we don't get shadowed. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z GFS Day 3: 4 Run Trend: 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: Looks like less snowfall so far lol. not by much and still very unrealistic totals in the Central Sound, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 What's the record? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z GFS Day 4: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said: lol. not by much and still very unrealistic totals in the Central Sound, at least. If there isn't at least 40 inches it's a bad GFS run 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Nov1985 said: 00Z NAM actually looks like fun. Weeeee! I love that little low that hooks around the south end of the Olympics. With any bit of luck OLM to SW King County could do well with the event later in the week. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Ground zero again. That is not going to change at all I think! 8 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Devastating trends 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said: If there isn't at least 40 inches it's a bad GFS run True. We need a lot of extra cushion with that model. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 This is looking a little bit colder. Barely above freezing in Central sound Wed in our warmup. Temps plummet Wed night. Thursday is going to be an icy mess if this verifies 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: If there isn't at least 40 inches it's a bad GFS run You are wise! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Ground zero again. That is not going to change at all I think! GFS went from about 24 inches in Seattle through Friday on the 12Z run down to 15 inches on the 00Z run. 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Portland! Sorry I can't post GFS 10:1 snowfall total maps, my router filters porn and other obscenities. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z GFS doesn't have as good of a track with the Friday-Saturday system compared to the 18z but it is still a good improvement over the 12z. Approaches us further north than the 18z but it is still acceptable for PDX at least. Rain to snow situation as the low sinks south and offshore flow increases. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z GFS Day 5: 4 Run Trend 3 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: GFS went from about 24 inches in Seattle through Friday on the 12Z run down to 15 inches on the 00Z run. Good sign, he's sobered up and gave is our real totals 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, Perturbed Member said: 00z GFS doesn't have as good of a track with the Friday-Saturday system compared to the 18z but it is still a good improvement over the 12z. Approaches us further north than the 18z but it is still acceptable for PDX at least. Rain to snow situation as the low sinks south and offshore flow increases. Keeps temps pretty cool throughout the day as well 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: True. We need a lot of extra cushion with that model. What time do you good folks think it will start snowing on Tuesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Thurs high temps 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: Good sign, he's sobered up and gave is our real totals If this pattern delivers almost a foot and half of snow to downtown Seattle in 4 days it will still be truly amazing. It doesn't look wet enough overall. I imagine a massive overrunning AR event to achieve that kind of snow to Seattle. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: GFS went from about 24 inches in Seattle through Friday on the 12Z run down to 15 inches on the 00Z run. Devastating developmentz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, SnowWillarrive said: What time do you good folks think it will start snowing on Tuesday? Seems earlier with every run. Late morning now. 5 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 GFS keeps offshore flow much longer than the mesoscale models. EURO in between. That will make all the difference. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: If this pattern delivers almost a foot and half of snow to downtown Seattle in 4 days it will still be truly amazing. It doesn't look wet enough overall. I imagine a massive overrunning AR event to achieve that kind of snow to Seattle. Each flake is as big as a snowman’s head of course. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 God this will be close for Portland… less snow then the 18z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: What time do you good folks think it will start snowing on Tuesday? Around 10 am 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 00z GFS Day 6: 4 Run Trend: 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TacomaWx Posted November 29, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 This is gonna be a sleepless week. Not the arctic event we thought we would see when we were watching the models a few days back…but doesn’t necessarily have to be that for some good stuff to happen. Looks like it might snow while I’m at work tomorrow. Unfortunately won’t be in the best location about 140’ of elevation in Kent. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 The second act is looking for the Tacoma area. Tomorrow night could be huge for some places in the Central Sound. 11 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlz Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The second act is looking for the Tacoma area. Tomorrow night could be huge for some places in the Central Sound. What time would it switch back to snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: GFS keeps offshore flow much longer than the mesoscale models. EURO in between. That will make all the difference. I truly have no idea what will happen with that detail out here. I have noticed that the models are showing more of a SE flow tomorrow night rather than straight easterly. I remember some our biggest snowstorms (when it never really scours out) is when the flow is straight easterly through the pass. Really tough to forecast... not sure how it will play out. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 00z GFS Day 6: 4 Run Trend: I am very interested to see how that plays out. Our best shot for some real cold out of this. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 It would be fun to get a little snow Friday night/Saturday morning since I don’t work Saturdays. Looks very borderline at this point though. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliffMassYelledAtMe Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 hour ago, MossMan said: And I cannot repeat the word exchange between Jesse and Cliff Mass…Those two really do not like each other! In other news… Down to 26.2 degrees! Is there anyone Professor Mass does like? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 The GFS keeps 850mb temperatures below freezing right through to the blast early next week. Good thing to have if the lower atmosphere cooperates. Still shows a second more Arctic-influenced blast Sunday night - 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowPlz said: What time would it switch back to snow? Late evening Wednesday night it appears. That's when 925mb temps get to the no doubt about it stage. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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