TT-SEA Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I like snow depth tbh. I feel like it’s showing the most realistic amount. It’s just to early to get 3-4in out a fringe system GFS shows a bunch of snow of snow in the Puget Sound area on Sunday and Monday all with temps in the upper 30s. It just doesn't make sense and you would think it would be an easy thing to fix in the program code... but apparently not. Hopefully the upgrade this month will make some improvements. Because unless there is arctic air and temperature is not an issue... you can almost always throw out the GFS snowfall maps. Its showed half foot of snow falling around Centralia last night with those precip bands that were moving inland yesterday evening. Just goofy. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Oh, I think we'll see something.... I think if there’s precip in the overnight hours under a convective shower possibly would be the only way to drop the snow level all the way down to the surface. On most of the models by the time drier cold air with lower DPs arrive the moisture is gone which is almost always one of the biggest problems with getting lowland snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Doinko said: Uh oh Been some consistency with that overrunning threat late next week. GFS and Canadian both agree, with the Euro at least temporarily keeping things dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: GFS shows a bunch of snow of snow in the Puget Sound area on Sunday and Monday all with temps in the upper 30s. It just doesn't make sense and you would think it would be an easy thing to fix in the program code... but apparently not. Hopefully the upgrade this month will make some improvements. Because unless there is arctic air and temperature is not an issue... you can almost always throw out the GFS snowfall maps. Its showed half foot of snow falling around Centralia last night with those precip bands that were moving inland yesterday evening. Just goofy. Clearly a plot by Big Weather Forum to generate posts. Wake up sheeple. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Been some consistency with that overrunning threat late next week. GFS and Canadian both agree, with the Euro at least temporarily keeping things dry. Looks kind of borderline though on the GFS. Canadian looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 850mb temps are significantly colder on this GEFS run but it won't matter if there is no precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, JSnowlin said: Have an ice day! 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: Looks kind of borderline though on the GFS. Canadian looks better Wouldn't worry too much at this stage. Just good to see the momentum continue towards a developed low level cold pool + juicy warm front combo. And overrunning setups with cold air already entrenched in place are actually one of the few cases where the models still tend to have a slight warm bias around here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: 850mb temps are significantly colder on this GEFS run but it won't matter if there is no precip Wow you are right. Way colder. Like as cold as the 6z run yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Good point. There are just so many things wrong with that map. I expect better from ECMWF. Seasonal snowfall anomaly maps are about as dumb as it gets, anyway. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted November 2, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s 11 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: 850mb temps are significantly colder on this GEFS run but it won't matter if there is no precip Trade-off for colder temps (kinda). The overrunning scenario might be the best bet for wintry precip or maybe some convective type showers with some people getting lucky at the onset of the colder air working in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I've wanted to live there for a long time. In a big winter the lower Fraser Valley can get flat out wicked. Didn't parts of the lower Fraser have snow on the ground for over a month in 2016-17? A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: 18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s Wow, that's significantly better. Looks like the trough has shifted east on the GEFS while it shifted west on the GFS which is probably a good sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: 18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s Looks like it’s trended east a bit…hugs the coastline versus the trajectory more over the ocean. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Trade-off for colder temps (kinda). The overrunning scenario might be the best bet for wintry precip or maybe some convective type showers with some people getting lucky at the onset of the colder air working in. I agree... the potential for an overrunning event later in the week is probably the best chance for lowland snow. Particularly if there is an established cold pool east of the mountains. There is just too much onshore flow on Sunday and Monday. 4 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Subfreezing highs north of Portland on Tuesday 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 November has been canceled!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 A couple -17s on this run?? Geez 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Looks like fall color has peaked around now or soon. Very late 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: Looks like fall color has peaked around now or soon. Very late It’s peaking now whether it wants to or not…everything will be white come Monday. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 30 minutes ago, Kayla said: NW flow into Montana. Ridge over the BC coast. Here is what actually happened that winter Way more snow in a lot of areas than what the ECMWF is showing, particularly the Cascades and Eastern WA/OR. And pretty much normal elsewhere. Interestingly AccuWeather has 2000-2001 as their top analog winter for this year, and their prediction is this: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Off topic, but...I'm traveling to Lake of the Ozarks this weekend, looks like I'll experience quite the storm there Friday night. 3 1 3 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Jim is gonna lose his mind when he sees the 18z GEFS 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 3 3 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Doinko Posted November 2, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Off topic, but...I'm traveling to Lake of the Ozarks this weekend, looks like I'll experience quite the storm there Friday night. What are you doing in Lake of the Ozarks? We loved it there. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 2, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 TOUCHDOWN!!! 9 1 5 1 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: What are you doing in Lake of the Ozarks? We loved it there. Building a drug empire for the Navarro cartel 5 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: TOUCHDOWN!!! What do the temps/DPs look like at hour 99? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I really want you to score. One of the most random memories I have from last Christmas week was sitting in a Denny's in Hermiston Oregon and telling my wife how happy I was. It was the day you had ten inches. About how you snapped one of your streaks. 3 1 1 1 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 56 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Cracked a beer on the clock for Drunkle He never fails to satisfy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 I think for the Puget Sound the best chances of snow will be next Thursday or Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Lots of sun helped me make it up to 51°F at my place today. Good chance of not just a frost but a freeze tonight if it stays clear. 2 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Have an ice day! Apt retort, n-ice job 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 I will be in New Hampshire 11/14 - 18 so expect any snow to be delayed until then. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: 18yesterday vs 18z today. GEFS 850s Pulsating… Always pretty suspect when basically every anomaly goes through a run to run intensification. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JSnowlin said: Apt retort, n-ice job It was the best I could do. Given that map, a snow job was out of the question. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, Cloud said: November has been canceled!! Spooky ghost face 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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