Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png GFS sticking to its guns for you guys up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Real interesting changes on 6z GFS compared to 00z. In the short-mid range Wednesday-Thursday the low is further south, less WAA, likely good snows from PDX to maybe Seattle(Probably not) I am not buying that abrupt turn north from Cape Blanco north to Ocean Shores. Looks wonky. A solution more like the NAM taking the low south of PDX and remaining there seems more plausible. 44 out of 50 EPS members do the same thing. There were other differences on this run too. Compared to 00z The second low moving into GOA is weaker. The GOA/AK block stronger remains 'upright' tilts favorably. The southeast/eastern US ridge stronger. 6z has a much deeper impressive low-level arctic air mass in place over the Columbia Basin beyond day 10. That could possibly help out PDX more than once over the next week or os. Oh, and beyond day 10 we see a stronger block over GOA, cold trough digging south out of Yukon right down the BC Coast and a very strong ridge over the eastern half of the US extending up into southeast Canada. Cold air moves south quickly and Snow begins all across the area Christmas evening. Maybe the stronger block on 6z is due to what Juneau NWS said that the initial trough diving into the block is weak and splits. Maybe models are just now picking up on this starting with 6z GFS. Which means future runs could show a stronger block west of 145-150 W. Something to keep an eye on with 12z runs today. Their new AFD says the block doesn't break down until the weekend. Uhhh. IF that were true that could be a game changer for us keeping colder air around, especially Gorge east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 6z GEFS(Ensembles) Surface temp anomaly Day 5WOW! MUCH colder than 00z and doing some studying of 6 previous runs, it's colder than any of those too. A strong blast plunges into Columbia Basin/Gorge east. I wasn't expecting that. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121206/gfs-ens_T2ma_wus_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121206/gfs-ens_T2ma_wus_22.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Haven't seen it snow this hard since February 2014. It's ABOUT TIME. Literally watched the snow line move south with TWO EYES. Drove north and south on the guide and watched the temp changes and found the snow/rain line around 10pm. It was moving south at about a mile per 20 minutes. Pretty fascinating to see. Finally changed to snow here about a half hour ago and now it's dumping. Cold air progressing south much quicker now. REALLY hoping Lake Whatcom can score tonight. Once they change over their totals should stack up pretty good. EDIT: WINTER WONDERLAND HERE. I also feel the pain most are feeling right now. It sucks. Honestly this morning I just assumed we'd get screwed up here and would run out of moisture. Didn't follow the models at all today. That's awesome I am glad you're getting snow. Take pics or videos. It doesn't bother me that you're scoring big time and down here, not so much. The only pain I feel is in my knee and its D**n severe. It's why I'm up doing analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Outflow reached southern Vancouver island around 1am. NE winds gusting to 30mph+ at YYJ. Rain has turned to snow here and is starting to accumulate. The heaviest band has been to my north. Looks like several inches between Duncan and parksville. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 6z GFS 850mb EnsemblesPortland, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Yakima Improvement and note the Op was an outlier through day 6. For PDX mean temp down nicely as precip arrives/increases gives a higher chance it remains snow throughout as strong east wind continues. Portlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver, BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Yakima(Using this to show depth of cold air across Columbia Basin)http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 6z GFS 850mb EnsemblesPortland, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Yakima Improvement and note the Op was an outlier through day 6. For PDX mean temp down nicely as precip arrives/increases gives a higher chance it remains snow throughout as strong east wind continues. Portlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver, BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Yakima(Using this to show depth of cold air across Columbia Basin)http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.pngThanks for posting all of that DJ, still looking very promising!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Cowboys ..... Oh wait we Seahawks fans!!! Bandwagon !!!!! It's snowing tho here lol Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Sorta important 12z runs today. Would love to see agreement with low placement south of PDX! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Is anyone concerned wed/thurs could be rain Seattle and South? Too me it looks like a quick transition to rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Surprise convergence zone overnight lead to me waking up to 4" of new snow... talk about a lucky bounce. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 For anyone interested, here are pictures from around Portland during the ice storm. https://www.facebook.com/tyler.mode.9/media_set?set=a.10210958370788876.1073741846.1641879514&type=3&pnref=story Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 32.5 and raining here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Welcome to Menstrual Monday. Regardless of the outcomes, computer-generated hormones will be at a heavy flow. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 This mother ******* goddamn climate can suck my mother ******* cock! Furthermore this piece of s**t location I live in can go **** itself. Have I ever said how much I loathe this ******* place? There is no question and little doubt that this is negative attitude is quite perplexing and confounding with all the goodies ahead. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 So the 12z NAM says heads back toward Team Jesse compared to the 6z... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Rain changed over to snow around 11pm last night. Only got about 1/2" before the precip moved to far south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently. 12-12-16Rain.A simple fix for the model woes. Just rename the model to WTF. Should never hear this question again. Problem solved! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Snowing lightly here, about 1.5" overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I didn't have time to measure the snow because I had to get my daughter to work, but if I had to guess, I would say I got about 2". There is noticeably less snow down the hill from me where I work (Barkley area) but still a decent amount 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Amazed to see some hinting toward cold weather potentially lasting well into week 2. There is some chance of an MJO wave emerging in a favorable area for cold troughing in the NW so it's not out of the question. It does appear the more serious cold later this week is still on. Whether the Central Puget Sound sees snow is an entirely different question though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Amazed to see some hinting toward cold weather potentially lasting well into week 2. There is some chance of an MJO wave emerging in a favorable area for cold troughing in the NW so it's not out of the question. It does appear the more serious cold later this week is still on. Whether the Central Puget Sound sees snow is an entirely different question though.Should be a "fun" week of tracking things anyway! Currently 37 degrees and raining here...a not so fun start of the weeks tracking....looks like our northerly neighbors are having a good time though! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 There is no question and little doubt that this is negative attitude is quite perplexing and confounding with all the goodies ahead.We've been here 11+ years and this mania perplexes and confounds you? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 For anyone interested, here are pictures from around Portland during the ice storm. https://www.facebook.com/tyler.mode.9/media_set?set=a.10210958370788876.1073741846.1641879514&type=3&pnref=storyThose are neat photos. Ice is very cool looking but easily the most difficult to deal with. Breaks trees and stuff. No bueno. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Apparently I'm at my high temp already for today. Its 23 here. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-118.31197529578233&lat=47.98600292243347#.WE7A9neZOHp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 There is no question and little doubt that this is negative attitude is quite perplexing and confounding with all the goodies ahead. We'll see. I can easily see ending up with almost nothing here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Should be a "fun" week of tracking things anyway! Currently 37 degrees and raining here...a not so fun start of the weeks tracking....looks like our northerly neighbors are having a good time though! The wind is supposed to shift later. If so....you never know. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just to set the record straight...I hope I'm wrong and the Seattle area gets a ton of snow this week. To me it just feels like getting a decent snow in this area right now is like trying to pound a square peg into round hole (peg and hole made out of titanium). Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Didn't get any snow overnight here, the precipitation stayed furter north. The outflow is rolling in now though, down to 32.5 with snow sticking to non-paved surfaces. I have a feeling getting enough precipitation will be our biggest problem now. This week could end up very similar to last week with an inch of snow turning to ice early on, if we're lucky (looking at the radar we probably won't even get that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Didn't get any snow overnight here, the precipitation stayed furter north. The outflow is rolling in now though, down to 32.5 with snow sticking to non-paved surfaces. I have a feeling getting enough precipitation will be our biggest problem now. This week could end up very similar to last week with an inch of snow turning to ice early on, if we're lucky (looking at the radar we probably won't even get that). We need a good region wide event. It sucks balls that some people score while others get little or nothing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 No snow here. Sucks to see areas south and especially east have been getting so much snow and nothing but cold heavy rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Enjoying watching the snow dump down on Barkley Village in Bellingham right now.... too bad my parents don't like the snow. http://barkleyvillage.com/web-cameras/ Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just to set the record straight...I hope I'm wrong and the Seattle area gets a ton of snow this week. To me it just feels like getting a decent snow in this area right now is like trying to pound a square peg into round hole (peg and hole made out of titanium).Thank you for keeping it real... agreed it feels like a fading long shot. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jesus, Portland NWS going all in. So dumb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Enjoying watching the snow dump down on Barkley Village in Bellingham right now.... too bad my parents don't like the snow. http://barkleyvillage.com/web-cameras/ They should get together with Timmy Supercell for the holidays Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jesus, Portland NWS going all in. So dumb. Jesus, Portland NWS going all in. So dumb. Yeah its kind of insane. The zone forecast for my area Wednesday night says 5-9". Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 No snow here. Sucks to see areas south and especially east have been getting so much snow and nothing but cold heavy rain here. How on Earth did you pull that off? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z GFS back to looking a little more realistic with the low track, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Thank you for keeping it real... agreed it feels like a fading long shot. The sad thing is (historically speaking) this area isn't as bad as you seem to think it is, but we are undeniably in a bad rut right now. Nothing seems to work for us since January (note January) 2012. We had numerous chances in 2013-14 and the past week or so. No cigar. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Also shows this mainly being a Wednesday event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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