PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[LowerGarfield]

Today has been a massive underperfomance at my location so far. At least it is safe to assume our high was 28 (just a hair under 29F) so a subfreezing high. But we get those often here.

[Deweydog]

It was pushing 100 the day I finished this up last summer.

[SnowySeeker50]

Just as quickly as it fell, it's now melting away in depressing 33 degree rain. Wish it would have lasted a bit longer, but today's event was great nonetheless.

[Perturbed Member]

ALERT!

PDX just dropped from 36F to 35F

After 5 hours of reporting 36F and snow. 

That station truly has to be one of the most horrid locations around here. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I knew you would!! Lol it's funny how we know who will like what on here. When I sent the pic I thought, Tim will like this because I know you enjoy the snow blower also. For anyone that's never done it. It's a strange satisfaction. 

Usually is very satisfying.    But clearing that Tuesday night snow was beyond frustrating!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My phone just reminded me of last December. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My phone just reminded me of next January. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

ALERT!

PDX just dropped from 36F to 35F

After 5 hours of reporting 36F and snow. 

That station truly has to be one of the most horrid locations around here. 

32.8 here. Such a cocktease…

[Olive1010]

Who heres lives around portland or in it?

[snow_wizard]

The chances keep coming.  I think it's been made clear over the past several days the NW Pierce County screw hole is more of a model bias than a real thing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chances keep coming.  I think it's been made clear over the past several days the NW Pierce County screw hole is more of a model bias than a real thing.

If all the snow the gfs shows in the mountains came true you could ski on the fukin moon.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chances keep coming.  I think it's been made clear over the past several days the NW Pierce County screw hole is more of a model bias than a real thing.

I don’t think it’s a model bias…. Often when everybody would get 10inches, I would get 6. 
 

I think these storms have had a perfect track for this area. 
 

Maybe there isn’t a snow hole anymore tbh. 
 

11in so far this winter 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS through Day 7. Trying to go places! Not there yet, but you can see the potential. C'MON!!!!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GEFS through Day 7. Trying to go places! Not there yet, but you can see the potential. C'MON!!!!

That NAO block will probably bridge with the PNA block eventually.

[Perturbed Member]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

32.8 here. Such a cocktease…

What were your totals? 

I'm cooling off nicely now. 32.7 and flurries. Still just a quarter inch on non road surfaces here. 

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chances keep coming.  I think it's been made clear over the past several days the NW Pierce County screw hole is more of a model bias than a real thing.

I know where the snow hole will be. Shall we let the GFS know?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If all the snow the gfs shows in the mountains came true you could ski on the fukin moon.

If all of the lowland snow it shows verified this would be as snowy as Michigan if not snowier!

[umadbro]

32 with light/moderate snow. About an inch on the ground.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If all of the lowland snow it shows verified this would be as snowy as Michigan if not snowier!

In any of the lowland snow it showed for here verified it would be nice

[Requiem]

It definitely sucks when the lowest elevations are skunked but I'd be lying if I didn't say looking up at the snow-coated hills from the gray cityscape below isn't really cool. The contrast really is something-- if you're driving across any of the bridges you'll get a nice view.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I don’t think it’s a model bias…. Often when everybody would get 10inches, I would get 6. 
 

I think these storms have had a perfect track for this area. 
 

Maybe there isn’t a snow hole anymore tbh. 
 

11in so far this winter 

Impressive!

[snow_wizard]

18z GEFS certainly looks colder than the 12z from about the 10th on.

[TacomaWx]

Just got done shoveling the sidewalks to build up a few decent snow piles. Hopefully they’ll still be around when it snows again and I can reload them. 
 Not sure if it’ll freeze tonight or not…just drizzle here and it hasn’t really melted a lot still on the trees. Would be nice to get the precip kicked south and out of here and freeze soon now that it’s about to start getting dark. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

What were your totals? 

I'm cooling off nicely now. 32.7 and flurries. Still just a quarter inch on non road surfaces here. 

We’ve got a solid dusting and/or probably a 1/4 to 1/3 inch or so. Nice eye candy for all the Christmas paraphernalia. 

[PuyallupChris]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I don’t think it’s a model bias…. Often when everybody would get 10inches, I would get 6. 
 

I think these storms have had a perfect track for this area. 
 

Maybe there isn’t a snow hole anymore tbh. 
 

11in so far this winter 

Yeah, the screwhole is real, just not coming to fruition now as the storm tracks have been essentially perfect.

 

Several big dumps in the last few years have resulted in 8+ inches a few miles in different directions and not even half that much in my neighborhood.

 

I was extremely sour last year (maybe the year before?) where I’m fairly sure I had about 1.5” while a few miles away we saw double digits.

[BLI snowman]

Starting to stick to cement here now. Down to 32.4. Magic number almost reached.

[Deweydog]

Santa says y’all better get your affairs in order before January…

[TacomaWx]

Stats for the last few days here. Pretty decent streak of measurable snowfall. No real warmup in sight on the models so early December is gonna go down as pretty chilly. 

40/35 

40/31 0.7”

41/29 1.2”

34/25 0.8”

38/24 1.2”

44/33 0.2”

39/33*1.1”

[GHweatherChris]

Almost there.

[GHweatherChris]

Such a weird looking 925 temp profile....

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18z GEFS certainly looks colder than the 12z from about the 10th on.

Yep.

[Cold Snap]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I don’t think it’s a model bias…. Often when everybody would get 10inches, I would get 6. 
 

I think these storms have had a perfect track for this area. 
 

Maybe there isn’t a snow hole anymore tbh. 
 

11in so far this winter 

Wow that’s more than I’ve recorded so far this winter and I had a 6”+ event last week! Great to see you guys doing just as well if not better than some places farther north!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

There's quite a sharp cutoff with that system to the south today, shows up clearly on the satellite. The snow cutoff also stands out even more in the Fraser Valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.1” of snow at PDX today.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The highway near Comox looks amazing, reminds me of the BC interior. The views on that stretch of highway from Parksville to Campbell River are pretty incredible, they use it in a lot of films.

[Meatyorologist]

It's been a theme this fall and winter to overdo jet extension and underamplify ridges in the medium-long range. Before late October this bias worked against us, ever since it has kept us consistently cold. I think as time passes the 14th-20th period will grow increasingly favorable on ensemble means. Could be wrong but I'm hoping!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks pretty nice just to the south of there too, not much melting happening yet.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

0.1” of snow at PDX today.

Shutout averted there!

8th straight winter with measurable snow for them.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's been a theme this fall and winter to overdo jet extension and underamplify ridges in the medium-long range. Before late October this bias worked against us, ever since it has kept us consistently cold. I think as time passes the 14th-20th period will grow increasingly favorable on ensemble means. Could be wrong but I'm hoping!

That euro run was pretty good a lot of potential. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 33 degrees, light rain, and foggy