PNW December 2022 - Part II

[snow_wizard]

Awesome ECMWF run for Tuesday.  No pull back at all.  Easily cold enough for snow even well south of Seattle.  Snowier than the 12z as well.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

850s at hr90 vs 12z

#rugpush

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Awesome ECMWF run for Tuesday.  No pull back at all.  Easily cold enough for snow even well south of Seattle.  Snowier than the 12z as well.

Do you think the Euro could trend towards snowier solutions like what the ICON is showing?

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Do you think the Euro could trend towards snowier solutions like what the ICON is showing?

Those totals on the icon would be amazing 

[Brennan]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I used to be know as Deweydog back in the day if you couldn’t tell by the sarcasm.

Gahhd I had it on the tip of my tongue for weeks now. THANK YOU!

[snow_wizard]

I think the chances are decent we are going to avoid an ice event.  Models keep that ridge just off the coast a bit stronger during the crucial period.

[Cloud]

Tomorrow into Monday is snowy and also improved for Seattle. Clear PSCZ signature over Central Sound. 

Then through end of run. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Gahhd I had it on the tip of my tongue for weeks now. THANK YOU!

I can't remember all of my names, lol.

P.S. Looks like not much snow for the Buffalo/Miami game until 6 PM our time according to NWS.  2nd half could be crazy.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the chances are decent we are going to avoid an ice event.  Models keep that ridge just off the coast a bit stronger during the crucial period.

That event is the only chance for winter weather down here 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Do you think the Euro could trend towards snowier solutions like what the ICON is showing?

Maybe, but it seems to like the weaker low scenario which is much safer quite frankly. This solution is comforting to me.

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Are you going out of town?

Yeah I'm in Denver right now. I'm not too disappointed because Wednesday into Thursday looks really fun

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Requiem said:

That event is the only chance for winter weather down here 

You could still get a surprise.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Requiem said:

That event is the only chance for winter weather down here 

The gorge is going to be raging, the cold layer will most likely be deep enough for all snow I'm thinking.

[snow_wizard]

Really love how the 18z ECMWF keeps pressure so high off the BC coast.  Really keeps things going.

[Doinko]

Looks like 41/25 at PDX today. Not bad at all

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tomorrow into Monday is snowy and also improved for Seattle. Clear PSCZ signature over Central Sound. 

Then through end of run. 

 

It would surprise if the CZ missed Snohomish County like that. They often get hung up North longer than modeled in these slow arctic bleed situations.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tomorrow into Monday is snowy and also improved for Seattle. Clear PSCZ signature over Central Sound. 

Then through end of run. 

I’m in the purple!

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

And there would be more than that with the ratios!

Yes indeed!

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

The gorge is going to be raging, the cold layer will most likely be deep enough for all snow I'm thinking.

Oh, I wouldn't be shocked-- but my main point is that I am rooting for that system to be as moisture laden as today's models sans GFS are predicting 

[joelgombiner]

Arctic front about 100 miles from the border now. Just pushed through Ashcroft, B.C with a plunging dewpoint and brisk north wind behind the front. 

[RentonHill]

End of the GEFS…yay

[RentonHill]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

Arctic front about 100 miles from the border now. Just pushed through Ashcroft, B.C with a plunging dewpoint and brisk north wind behind the front. 

Good bot

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

Arctic front about 100 miles from the border now. Just pushed through Ashcroft, B.C with a plunging dewpoint and brisk north wind behind the front. 

Nice. Thanks for updating the whereabouts of the arctic front.

[rsktkr]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

#rugpush

"rug push" is an awesome description. Should become a permanent thing around here when we get a reverse rug pull. It won't be used often of course but still.

[rsktkr]

Any word on what's going on around the 1st-2nd?

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Nice. Thanks for updating the whereabouts of the arctic front.

#RugPush #AheadOfSchedule

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

"rug push" is an awesome description. Should become a permanent thing around here when we get a reverse rug pull. It won't be used often of course but still.

Just remember who came up with that :).

[Front Ranger]

This is looking more and more like a baby January 2012. Though probably a little colder.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Arctic front about 100 miles from the border now. Just pushed through Ashcroft, B.C with a plunging dewpoint and brisk north wind behind the front. 

Good stuff! I love it when we have different people on here tracking different stuff. 

[GHweatherChris]

#thisisarugpush

[Terreboner]

Just now, Cloud said:

Good stuff! I love it when we have different people on here tracking different stuff. 

Yes, much appreciated!!  I'm fixated now on NWS PDX saying the front will be draped from Astoria to PDX to Mt. Jefferson.  I find that very interesting and if that does occur then Portland is going to get the goods.  So much fun to think about the possibilities right now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light snow and 33.

[RentonHill]

Light rain and 36.

[Prairiedog]

3 hours ago, Perturbed Member said:

Weather.com model must not understand freezing rain or sleet well or it somehow thinks the cold air will remain much deeper. It calls for 2-6 inches of snow for PDX Thursday. The high of 27F and the precip amounts are at least in line with the other models. 

NWS Portland saying precip will be quite limited in the form of hit and miss showers Monday-Tues.  Here is for the rest of the week starting with Wednesday and  If they think Hood River and upper HR Valley is scouring out by Thurs. there is no chance for PDX to remain cold Thurs BUT there is still a lot of uncertainty with timing. Granted the Gorge is tough to scour out.  It can linger for days sometimes.   Nevertheless, 2-6 seems really unrealistic IMHO

Now,
while there is a significant amount of uncertainty, a trend can be
observed resulting in an overall milder solution. What this means is
that for low elevations rain is favored over snow and for higher
elevations snow is favored over freezing rain. Now, while this is a
favorable situation for most areas, it needs to be noted that a
significant snow-ice transition event for the Columbia Gorge and Hood
River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday as cold air supported by
snow on the ground is a challenge to scour out of the Columbia River
Gorge and Hood River, but with the likelihood of warm air being
introduced into the region Wednesday night into Thursday the
potential for a cold pool of air to linger keeps diminishing.

[Cloud]

A cold 37 for the "daytime" high today at SEA.  Expecting to warm up to near 40 through the evening though. 

 

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is looking more and more like a baby January 2012. Though probably a little colder.

Did January 2012 have any significant offshore push like models are showing for next week? I recall that month being heavy on that persistent offshore flow 

[bainbridgekid]

Convergence getting its act together between Port Townsend and Mt. Vernon. Could get interesting soon up by Randy. @MossMan

[joelgombiner]

Also tracking obs in the Yukon. The current sea-level pressure of 1060 mb and with a temp of -40 at Dawson is pretty astounding. 

(The highest sea level pressure ever recorded on earth is 1083 mb.)

 

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The "Tuesday" "low"

 

It's actually more of a baroclinic zone or Arctic frontal boundary.  Much much safer than a closed low.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

A cold 37 for the "daytime" high today at SEA.  Expecting to warm up to near 40 through the evening though. 

 

Must be quite the warm front