PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Tuesday snow...

 

Bingo!

[TT-SEA]

High temps tomorrow and Tuesday.    

[Art_Digbee]

Temp has dropped from 34.5 to 31.4 in the last half hour here.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps tomorrow and Tuesday.    

Looks about the same or slightly warmer for high temps in the Willamette Valley

[lowlandsnow]

At least Seattle picks up a little snow with the arrival and then after the warm up

[bishbish777]

Just an observation after living in New England for the past 3 years..

 

Out East, it definitely feels like things tend to trend better in the days leading up to the event and things often surprised to the upside. Out here (raised in Portland, now in Seattle), seems to be the opposite. The suffering is real 

[TacomaWx]

Drops down and snows again in the central sound behind the front. But this is bad news for anyone south of Seattle for Tuesday. Our chances might be tonight and the overrunning event at the end unless there’s a huge change in the next 36 hours. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps tomorrow and Tuesday.    

Non event now in terms of temps. Mid 30’s for me? That’s like the last few days here. This thing has sure taken a dump. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

Just an observation after living in New England for the past 3 years..

 

Out East, it definitely feels like things tend to trend better in the days leading up to the event and things often surprised to the upside. Out here (raised in Portland, now in Seattle), seems to be the opposite. The suffering is real 

Worth mentioning that the event last December trended better as it approached.

[lowlandsnow]

So now is it the ICON, RGEM, HRRR and GFS vs the ECMWF, CANDADIAN and UKMET

[Doinko]

Just now, MossMan said:

Non event now in terms of temps. Mid 30’s for me? That’s like the last few days here. This thing has sure taken a dump. 

Temps drop while it's snowing on this run, your area looks fine

[umadbro]

So what is it today? King UKMET?

[smerfylicious]

This wouldn't have happened if France won the world cup. 

Thanks Messi 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Non event now in terms of temps. Mid 30’s for me? That’s like the last few days here. This thing has sure taken a dump. 

That high on Tuesday might be late morning there... you are in a good spot for snow Tuesday afternoon.  

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Blizzard777 said:

Holding up….this is and hour later 

Our current weather and hour later from this capture 

Holding steady 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Wednesday... a couple degrees warmer than 00Z run for Seattle but still plenty cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Wednesday... a couple degrees warmer than 00Z run for Seattle but still plenty cold.

Looks slightly cooler down here, but I could be wrong. Seemed like last night was low 40s up to PDX.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks slightly cooler down here, but I could be wrong. Seemed like last night was low 40s up to PDX.

Yeah I’m thinking the small bump north with the Tuesday system, while impactful for snow in the Puget sound, doesn’t do a lot to change the big picture. 

[Brennan]

Shhnneehhh! 23*. 

[Doinko]

East wind develops and temps drop 9 degrees in 6 hours in Portland

 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks about the same or slightly warmer for high temps in the Willamette Valley

Yeah safe to say Portland is out of the running for Tuesday. I think our focus is all on if that cold air actually arrives as modeled and how deep we can get that cold pool ahead of the transition event. 

As Justin said before, I think the models sometimes adjust and see the deeper than expected cold pool from these east wind CAA events 36-48 hours out. We do much better here once the cold air is already in place anyway and the trend is good for now. 

 

[Doinko]

This is some amazing CAA. 1 degree colder than the 00z actually at this frame

 

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah the ECMWF still gets really cold. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah I’m thinking the small bump north with the Tuesday system, while impactful for snow in the Puget sound, doesn’t do a lot to change the big picture. 

this seems like a post you would downvote.

[Terreboner]

Jim must work on Saturdays, I need some positivity.  You guys are killing me, lol.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Thursday... crazy!

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Wednesday... a couple degrees warmer than 00Z run for Seattle but still plenty cold.

The runs not a total loss still shows us getting some snow at the start and then some decent cold and snow sticks around on during the backside of the front moving south. Still hard to say what happens still not in full agreement on the models where the low will actually come in but I think the euro will probably be right. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Thursday... crazy!

Eugene!

[bishbish777]

Still a couple days out for Tues/Wed, low placement could easily shift again by tomorrow. Interesting that the GFS and NAM dont have it as much of an organized system at this point. 

[TT-SEA]

Overrunning moisture by late Thursday night... but looks fairly disorganized and weak which is probably a good thing.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah safe to say Portland is out of the running for Tuesday. I think our focus is all on if that cold air actually arrives as modeled and how deep we can get that cold pool ahead of the transition event. 

As Justin said before, I think the models sometimes adjust and see the deeper than expected cold pool from these east wind CAA events 36-48 hours out. We do much better here once the cold air is already in place anyway and the trend is good for now. 

 

Totally agree, but the somewhat worrisome thing here is the delay in bringing the real cold into the Columbia River basin.

The weaker push of very cold air south on Monday/Tuesday, and the if the low Tuesday does indeed come in stronger and further north on Tuesday, is not what you want to see at this point.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Still a couple days out for Tues/Wed, low placement could easily shift again by tomorrow. Interesting that the GFS and NAM dont have it as much of an organized system at this point. 

For the Seattle area it will probably come down to watching it in real time before we know precisely what will happen.   Easier forecast to the north and south. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Overrunning event is starting to look more like snow than freezing rain. Very good sign. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Jim must work on Saturdays, I need some positivity.  You guys are killing me, lol.

Today is Sunday 

[MossMan]

Just got very dark! 

[mtep]

Was s****ing snow a bit ago. The sun came out and made for a beautiful scene. It has just about stopped for now. 

[lowlandsnow]

Where is the arctic front now?

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tuesday snow...

 

Wow. Looks amazing. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Totally agree, but the somewhat worrisome thing here is the delay in bringing the real cold into the Columbia River basin.

The weaker push of very cold air south on Monday/Tuesday, and the if the low Tuesday does indeed come in stronger and further north on Tuesday, is not what you want to see at this point.

This thought crossed my mind too. But how much did the low shift for Tuesday on the Euro. 20 miles? That has a big impact for snow in populated areas on the Puget sound but doesn’t do a lot to change the big picture for cold air movement in the region. Now if that low shifted to the northern tip of Vancouver island....let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Today is Sunday 

I mean Sundays.