PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Hawksfan2008]

13 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

So the GFS, GEM, UKMET, RGEM, HRRR, ICON and the NAM were good enough or better tonight 7 for 7

EURO will follow. So much consistency. 

[yellowstone]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

EURO will follow. So much consistency. 

Would be wild to actually, finally have full model agreement on this. 

[Doinko]

I hope the Euro randomly sends the snowstorm to Salem

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

That band of precip is just to my north. Tonight has been so aggravating.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

EURO will follow. So much consistency. 

Tim and others have mentioned this but the euro and ukmet agree quite often. I knew when the ukmet came in too far north earlier today the euro would follow. Interesting to see if that holds true tonight. Either way down in my area I don’t trust the models 6 hours out now. Could still go wrong because the margin for error is almost 0 with the low placement in the south sound. 

[snow_wizard]

It does appear the Arctic front east of the Cascades is further south than the ECMWF had modeled at this time.  Interesting.

[Doinko]

Could someone posts the weatherbell high/low meteogram for Portland from the GFS? Not completely sure but it might have a sub 20 high for Portland on Thursday

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Tim and others have mentioned this but the euro and ukmet agree quite often. I knew when the ukmet came in too far north earlier today the euro would follow. Interesting to see if that holds true tonight. Either way down in my area I don’t trust the models 6 hours out now. Could still go wrong because the margin for error is almost 0 with the low placement in the south sound. 

Rooting for you! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I say 3–6" for @MossMan tomorrow night. His measurable snow drought is about to end.

[snow_wizard]

Snow coming down pretty good again.  Sticking to the roads on this round as things have begun to freeze up.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Could someone posts the weatherbell high/low meteogram for Portland from the GFS? Not completely sure but it might have a sub 20 high for Portland on Thursday

It does not.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Could someone posts the weatherbell high/low meteogram for Portland from the GFS? Not completely sure but it might have a sub 20 high for Portland on Thursday

Not done yet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Poof out of nowhere a heavy snow shower overhead.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It does not.

That's the 18z.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Snow coming down pretty good again.  Sticking to the roads on this round as things have begun to freeze up.

It’ll be really interesting driving to enumclaw then Kent for work tomorrow Morning. Not even flurrying anymore here just chilly and cloudy. Crazy the differences a few miles can make. 

[jcmcgaffey]

Looks like north Seattle’s turn is coming up now. Hope this stays stationary for a bit. 

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not done yet.

I keep forgetting how long it takes, what time does it normally come out after each run?

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Looks like north Seattle’s turn is coming up now. Hope this stays stationary for a bit. 

Looks like a line of showers now blooming over Seattle area 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sticking to my guns, I still believe the area will see one of the most widespread snow storms since 1996 this week. Quick guess here, 6-14 Tuesday and 3-6 Friday. 

[MV_snow]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snow coming down pretty good again.  Sticking to the roads on this round as things have begun to freeze up.

Love to hear our area is doing well. Would be nice to come back to a couple inches tomorrow before the Tuesday main event.

[Cold Snap]

Love to see the radar filling in! I’m feeling like I’m going to get that half inch! That would put me at an inch for today.

[WildrootParable]

Just took the dog out and was pretty shocked--it's definitely snowing! The flakes are still smallish, but it's accumulating big-time. Very dry snow. I think it's going to look gorgeous tomorrow morning, especially if we stay cold. Curious to see how much we get. 

That's probably it from me this evening. Goodnight all, and hope the unpredictable precip spreads the wealth around!

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's the 18z.

Indeed it is. OP did not specify a run.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’ll be really interesting driving to enumclaw then Kent for work tomorrow Morning. Not even flurrying anymore here just chilly and cloudy. Crazy the differences a few miles can make. 

Enumclaw looks pretty crazy right now.

[Blizzard777]

Finally ….32* and Christmas Vacations on again! 

[TacomaWx]

Convergence zone is pretty far south definitely unusual. Didn’t think it would slip this far south. 

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

System for Tuesday developing offshore. Double barreled? Hoping the arctic push and northern stream shoves it south, jet suppression. It has before.

Doesn't a double low help with keeping it from getting too intense? 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I keep forgetting how long it takes, what time does it normally come out after each run?

About 20 minutes.

You're getting close.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Doesn't a double low help with keeping it from getting too intense? 

Usually.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

About 20 minutes.

You're getting close.

Friday is definitely trending colder. Saturday too

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Convergence zone is pretty far south definitely unusual. Didn’t think it would slip this far south. 

GFS shows more southern action later tonight.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Convergence zone is pretty far south definitely unusual. Didn’t think it would slip this far south. 

I’m not sure it’s really a CZ. But it has been snowing here since 4pm. 

[lowlandsnow]

GFS has 22/10 on Thursday for Seattle

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 in Bellingham.  This outflow is now Colder than last December.  14 in Ferndale, This is going to be a special week between Portland and Seattle.  Could wind up a top tier blast.

Edited December 19, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive how that second cold shot has trended better and better even at the 500mb level.  

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Sticking to my guns, I still believe the area will see one of the most widespread snow storms since 1996 this week. Quick guess here, 6-14 Tuesday and 3-6 Friday. 

The dry and Arctic variety too; not the slushy BS that destroyed half your ecosystem the other week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I hope the Euro randomly sends the snowstorm to Salem

February 2014 where 3 systems did that on 3 consecutive days!

[Doinko]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

February 2014 where 3 systems did that on 3 consecutive days!

That was a fantastic event. Ended up with around 9-10" of snow.

[snow_wizard]

Good Lord.  Once the cold air starts moving down east of the Rockies it's incredible how fast it makes it to the Gulf of Mexico.  We're lucky how it got hung up for so long over BC.

[Requiem]

Really happy that this is trending away from an entirely northerly blast and to more of a strong backdoor push of potent cold air. Much better for areas south of Seattle this way-- though the ice potential is mildly concerning.