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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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Hey forum people I need advice. My son was super sick this weekend and finally seems 2/3rds to 3/4 better. My spouse is super sick now and asked me to tell my job and his school that he's still sick.  I only have one day left for sickness in the next two weeks. She said I could get a snow day out of it. What do you think?

Plow has come twice in the last hour and the road looks like they need to come again. A conservative eyeball says at least half an inch but maybe one so far. Still snowing.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Guest hawkstwelve
Just now, yellowstone said:

So much for Joe being team winter cancel…. 
 

 

CA3350D8-9395-4A31-A7F9-12EF089E86AF.png

"Or it will be rain" is code for "I hope it's rain as snow fills my heart with a murderous rage"

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I can’t believe the ensembles had a 3in plus jump from the 18z alone. WTF. 
 

Can’t lie, might go to bed and wake up at 4am to watch this unfold 

This is increasingly my plan. Staring out my window at very light flurries is getting old, but I’d be all in for inch an hour snow rates, which we’ll get at the end no matter which model is right. 

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For what it’s worth I’ve had snow on the ground at around 6” for the last 8 days and temps haven’t been warm at all and lows have been below zero or teens mostly. There are huge snow piles in parking lots and along the sides of the roads, looks like a mountain town. Not to mention we had just got rid of the snow before this episode 8 days ago so with that we’ve had snow on the ground for the last 3 weeks or so. 

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So, this might be a nitpicky question but it's bothering me. 

I've been seeing the 4am-10am peak window stated a few times here, but NWS is giving Bremerton Airport (my closest weather landmark) a warmup to 34-35 during that timeframe tomorrow morning before it dips back down to 30 before lunchtime. Why would that happen?   

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FWIW the 00z UKMET still showing 1-2 inches of snow for PDX before the changeover. Somewhat similar to the 18z euro.

The GFS and GEM are both much wetter than the UKMET and Euro now. Getting snow in this situation is such a delicate balance. The front can't be too strong otherwise the aggressive WAA moderates everything too quick, if it is too weak then we can't really wetbulb or get things to accumulate at any reasonable rate. It will take plenty of luck and some magic to get a widespread 1-2 inches out of this. 

Even if the snow doesn't happen, this should still be an impressive and interesting event. Hoping we can keep property damage and power outages to a minimum though. 

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

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5 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

So, this might be a nitpicky question but it's bothering me. 

I've been seeing the 4am-10am peak window stated a few times here, but NWS is giving Bremerton Airport (my closest weather landmark) a warmup to 34-35 during that timeframe tomorrow morning before it dips back down to 30 before lunchtime. Why would that happen?   

That is the million dollar question... will that happen or not?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I can’t believe the ensembles had a 3in plus jump from the 18z alone. WTF. 
 

Can’t lie, might go to bed and wake up at 4am to watch this unfold 

Probably a good idea to hit the sack now and force some sleep.  Although my bedsheets are in the dryer currently :( 

33.8

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Base on the 9pm sat. imagery, WVs and projection.... I'm guessing the storm will land near Pacific Beach... this would bode well from Federal Way northward. We'll find out early morning. A little wobble north will be problematic for Central Sound. Very little to no wiggle room here. 

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