ShawniganLake Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Did the euro break at day 9? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Jesse often points out the ECMWF bias of sending too much energy to the southwest... maybe this will be tempered in future runs. Although right now the GFS and GEM agree on the overall pattern for late next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Did the euro break at day 9? Just stopped. Got too cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Unfortunately, climo shows that only 10 more days or so could mean the difference between this upper level progression producing widespread lowland snow versus widespread chilly rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Unfortunately, climo shows that only 10 more days or so could mean the difference between this upper level progression producing widespread lowland snow versus widespread chilly rain. We'll see. We have had snow with the late October cold waves before and this one looks more solid than many of those. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 I knew it was a wicked February, I didn’t realize it was that cold. The monthly average was 30.9 here that month. Totally insane. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Dense fog and 43 here right now. I think the NWS will be way off calling for 60s in Seattle tomorrow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Day 10 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017102700/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 We'll see. We have had snow with the late October cold waves before and this one looks more solid than many of those. Never anything too widespread, though. There's a reason why Downtown Seattle, back to 1894, has never recorded anything measurable before November 7. It takes a pretty insane event to produce anything to sea level that early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Never anything too widespread, though. There's a reason why Downtown Seattle, back to 1894, has never recorded anything measurable before November 7. It takes a pretty insane event to produce anything to sea level that early. SEA did pretty good in 1971 and many places outside of Seattle had decent snow in 1935. Also some in 1984 and 1991. The setup being shown on tonight's runs would do it, but now it has to verify. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 I thought we wanted November to torch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Jesse often points out the ECMWF bias of sending too much energy to the southwest... maybe this will be tempered in future runs. Although right now the GFS and GEM agree on the overall pattern for late next week.It has a bias of cutting things off to the SW from what I can tell. That’s different than what it’s showing on the 00z. The runs will probably trend warmer at some point, though. Only 600dm ridges make the cut untempered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/oregon/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171106-0000z.html Snow for everybody! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Dense fog and 43 here right now. I think the NWS will be way off calling for 60s in Seattle tomorrow.Way off? East wind and clear here after a foggy afternoon... ECMWF shows low to mid 60s tomorrow. SEA was almost 60 today and tomorrow will be more mixed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 SEA did pretty good in 1971 and many places outside of Seattle had decent snow in 1935. Also some in 1984 and 1991. The setup being shown on tonight's runs would do it, but now it has to verify. Trace-2" is certainly possible, you just have to way lower your expectations compared to what's climatologically possible a couple weeks later. Just not ideal timing if this thing "works out". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 I thought we wanted November to torch. That's why I'm glad it's early. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Trace-2" is certainly possible, you just have to way lower your expectations compared to what's climatologically possible a couple weeks later. Just not ideal timing if this thing "works out". No doubt on that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenochtitlan Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 SEA did pretty good in 1971 and many places outside of Seattle had decent snow in 1935. Also some in 1984 and 1991. The setup being shown on tonight's runs would do it, but now it has to verify. Wow, yeah 1991 looks nice. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBLI/1991/10/28/DailyHistory.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Way off? East wind and clear here after a foggy afternoon... ECMWF shows low to mid 60s tomorrow. SEA was almost 60 today and tomorrow will be more mixed. I'm not sure why tomorrow would be more mixed but we'll see I guess. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 I'm not sure why tomorrow would be more mixed but we'll see I guess.It should be. It took all day to recover from that weak front. The models show a good offshore breeze the next 2 days all the way to SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 This block looks like it's going to be a beast! This could be historic. I would have to think 1935 is the early event on record that would match what is being modeled.What happened back then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 What happened back then?Old timey s**t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Looks like about 1000-1500' snow levels in W. Oregon with this. Lots of ensemble spread though. Cooler and damper is a good bet. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Never anything too widespread, though. There's a reason why Downtown Seattle, back to 1894, has never recorded anything measurable before November 7. It takes a pretty insane event to produce anything to sea level that early. Snow did fall below 400' within the city of Seattle in late Oct. 1971 & 1984. Probably 1935 as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Helping a friend move to LaPine this weekend. Good thing we picked this weekend and not next! My brother is moving down to Coos Bay/North Bend, so I'll have a south coast weather source now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 The 6z enesmble is pretty insane. From summer warmth to winter cold at the 850mb level. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Anyone know the new link for that German site for the GFS ensemble? Tried the old one and it didn't work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 SCORE!!!!!Sure sucks being on the east side of the olympics, I see a future of rain shadowed frustration as everyone on the east side of the Puget Sound gets clobbered.... LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Sure sucks being on the east side of the olympics, I see a future of rain shadowed frustration as everyone on the east side of the Puget Sound gets clobbered.... LOLSeems like you've done alright in most scenarios though, right? Of course every microclimate has a different ideal setup for snow. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Disturbing lack of low clouds and/or fog this morning. I've been running the humidifier out in the backyard for hours with very little improvement. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Disturbing lack of low clouds and/or fog this morning. I've been running the humidifier out in the backyard for hours with very little improvement.East wind actually strengthened overnight here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Disturbing lack of low clouds and/or fog this morning. I've been running the humidifier out in the backyard for hours with very little improvement. Some low clouds trapped in the valleys... but mostly clear overall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 East wind actually strengthened overnight here.***SHOULD*** be more of a gap wind today. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Stayed windy here all last night and didn't fall below 48F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Stayed windy here all last night and didn't fall below 48F.38F up this way. No wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Sure sucks being on the east side of the olympics, I see a future of rain shadowed frustration as everyone on the east side of the Puget Sound gets clobbered.... LOL A little early to panic Casey. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 I just hope this doesn't turn out like 2014 when we had to wait until like 11-15 to see snow. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Stayed windy here all last night and didn't fall below 48F.Same here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 I don't think the 12z is going to as exciting... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 It dropped to 39F here, and I'm under a clear blue sky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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