Flood Watch up for the potential for heavy rain and training storms later tonight and early tomorrow here in East Central Nebraska… It looks like we are going to add to our already above normal rainfall totals for May. Also a decent chance for some more severe weather too, bring it on!
I imagine we will see a rather quick trend to linear-ish organization tomorrow, but this system is fairly anomalous for this time of year in terms of the surface low depth and the wind fields. Could at least have a pretty decent QLCS tornado threat.
Can we keep this one going for at least a week? Western ridging has consistently underperformed w/rt long range model projections this year, but this is the most favorable large scale forcing structure for a +TNH response in quite awhile. And you’d also expect some +TNH in a canonical post-niño environment (we’ve had almost none this year so far).
Come mid-June, subsidence returns to the IPWP/WPAC, so it ain’t gonna stick around. But it’ll be interesting to see how long it can hold against the emerging LF state.
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