Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
As we quickly approach the last month of Met Spring, what will Mother Nature bring? Hopefully not any May SNOW showers! During one of the signature periods of the LRC, we saw that West-Based Greenland Block and it is starting to show up Big time in the modeling. Could this be a theme for May and into the summer months ahead? I'm pretty confident that it will be and the pattern up in Canada suggests that wild fires will start early and often. Unfortunately, they have been plagued with fires especially up across the Southern and Eastern parts of the country last year, iirc. My gut says the same areas in parts of Eastern and Southern Canada are going to get the worst of it. Bullseye near Ontario??? Man, I sure hope not. "Hazy Summer Skies"...will be something to keep an eye on this summer season.
South of the border, what does May look like? The CFSv2 has been gun-ho on a remarkably active pattern across the heartland and dry across the GL's. Due to the blocking pattern across the N & E parts of North America, I think its right. There will be some happy folks on here and nasso happy peeps near the Lakes/OHV.
Nearly every LR model is showing a cool to COLD open to the month of May....May snow? Well, the GFS says it will Snow...heck no! Let's discuss as I believe this will be quite and active and fairly interesting month ahead.
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