PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a comparison between the 12Z and 18Z runs to exclude snow that fell today.   This is 7 p.m. tonight though 7 p.m. tomorrow.

12Z on top and 18Z on the bottom.

 

This is... fairly good for PDX. I'm not confident or really buying it but it could bode well for the hills.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, RCola said:

It's not our year.

 

I hope you get something, but if you don't, you won't be alone. I'll more than likely be skunked right there with you alongside all the other downtown Seattle posters.

Feeling fortunate to live in the Lake City neighborhood. Only a quarter inch shy of average. I feel like we'll meet/surpass that tonight.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a comparison between the 12Z and 18Z runs to exclude snow that fell today.   This is 7 p.m. tonight though 7 p.m. tomorrow.

12Z on top and 18Z on the bottom.

 

Euro shows a decent band of snow over PDX. GRAF shows it too. Would be pretty nice, those two models nailed the Wednesday event last week. Snowpack here is about gone besides for patches of snow from that storm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is your biggest year for total snow? mine is 2008 at 56 inches.

2011-12 we had 98.5". Last winter we had 52.6" which is 3rd most since I have lived here, behind 63.5" in 2018-19. Our worst year was 14-15' when we only had 3.5". 

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Spring is canceled 

winter is on through juneary(I wish)

[Olive1010]

so is this band We’re talking for pdx is possibly coming tonight or tomorrow?

[Olive1010]

Heavy shower coming In west of pdx hoping it will be heavy if it drops the snow level 

[lowlandsnow]

Cliff Mass is relatively positive

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, OysterPrintout said:

Really glad we managed that incredible event cause it has been straight back to the familiar bust train of marginal snow events here.

How much snow did you end up with last week?

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Another good event here.

Nothing new there.

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it’s over

Looks about the same for me…I think. My eyes are tired. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I dont buy the lower totals shown around tacoma and east of there,

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nothing new there.

I just mentioned, i don't believe the light totals shown in your area.

[MossMan]

Is Wednesday still looking like the best mountain pass travel day this week? 

[snow_wizard]

Very possibly the last chance for the South / Central Sound area to get a really decent snowfall this winter and it looks to be slipping away.  Serious bummer.

The winter has been ok here, but I was sure looking for something other than another small snowfall.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I just mentioned, i don't believe the light totals shown in your area.

There is certainly a chance it could still work out well, but this new low track is worrisome.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Very possibly the last chance for the South / Central Sound area to get a really decent snowfall this winter and it looks to be slipping away.  Serious bummer.

The winter has been ok here, but I was sure looking for something other than another small snowfall.

You know how unpredictable these are. This could really be good for much of the area. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

South hill frosty, why does your map look different that tims for the same time period?

My map is more zoomed in

[Olive1010]

Dang quickly hail or ice pellets just fell and accumulated 

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Cliff Mass is relatively positive

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Yeah he seems pretty optimistic with SEA getting about 2”. He even said Portland should see about 1.5”.

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Cliff Mass is relatively positive

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Cliff also said the ECMWF is fuzzy vs. WRF

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Dang quickly hail or ice pellets just fell and accumulated 

Looks like that shower is here now

[Olive1010]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks like that shower is here now

Yeah it was very heavy

[TT-SEA]

Current snow situation here... about 1 inch in most places maybe 2 inches in the shaded areas.    Getting a little snow every night helps keep some on the ground. Giving @SilverFallsAndrew a run for his money!   Let's see how the same view looks tomorrow.

[Phishy Wx]

snow should be starting here in about an hour ish

might initially be mixed or rain

currently 39 with DP of 20

[Olive1010]

So dang we can actually get a inch and a half tonight dang 

[Christensen87]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very possibly the last chance for the South / Central Sound area to get a really decent snowfall this winter and it looks to be slipping away.  Serious bummer.

The winter has been ok here, but I was sure looking for something other than another small snowfall.

So disappointing, especially with the current pattern and so much potential. Would’ve been nice to have at least one widespread event. 

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is Wednesday still looking like the best mountain pass travel day this week? 

Definitely

[Weiner Warrior]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF... definitely a shift north and warmer for the Seattle area after a band of snow in the early morning.

Snow through tomorrow evening and high temps tomorrow.

I've been keeping a running talley of the number of times Tim has said warmer in the last three days. He's up to 69.

[Perturbed Member]

35 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro shows a decent band of snow over PDX. GRAF shows it too. Would be pretty nice, those two models nailed the Wednesday event last week. Snowpack here is about gone besides for patches of snow from that storm

Looks like a fair amount of phantom snow. I'm sure there will be plenty of snow in the air from this but unlikely to stick in a very widespread fashion except for places with some elevation IMO. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

18z Euro kinda looks ridiculously cold and snowy for these parts, tonight and tomorrow.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

18z Euro kinda looks ridiculously cold and snowy for these parts, tonight and tomorrow.

It shows 5-6 inches near the River by Troutdale, Washougal and Camas. I'm pretty skeptical but that would be incredible if it verified.  

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely

Thanks! Going to move my work travel day to Wednesday instead of Thursday then. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It shows 5-6 inches near the River by Troutdale, Washougal and Camas. I'm pretty skeptical but that would be incredible if it verified.  

I haven’t been following the situation overnight tonight too closely so that really surprised me. And it is the Euro.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cloud]

Curious for snow depth maps. These past few events had been good here for night time snowfall but nearly all is gone during the daytime when things warms up. This is especially true for the Seattle area. Very little staying power given the calendar. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I've been keeping a running talley of the number of times Tim has said warmer in the last three days. He's up to 69.

So I did a search on my posts and that word... actual count is 9 times in the last week.    Not bad for someone comparing model runs all day long.  And I think some of those included were actually "not warmer".  You might just have an aversion that word.    

I also said "more snow" more times than "less snow" in the last week.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty sad and pathetic.

[Deweydog]

I’ve seen better, but this dandy will at least make it til spring.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty sad and pathetic.

Not all... I know it was a joke.   I was actually interested in the stats.   

[ShawniganLake]

Snow has eased to flurries. Picked up 4” through the day which isn’t bad for late February daytime snow.  33F and the north wind is picking up a bit.