PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Gummy]

Does the low appear to be off the coast 100ish miles or so due west of Olympia?

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty sad and pathetic.

Hey, boo! Why so blue???

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Snow has eased to flurries. Picked up 4” through the day which isn’t bad for late February daytime snow.  33F and the north wind is picking up a bit. 

Impressive.  And should be all snow for you tomorrow too.

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve seen better, but this dandy will at least make it til spring.

Dirty snow

[Requiem]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I haven’t been following the situation overnight tonight too closely so that really surprised me. And it is the Euro.

The EURO showing it at least begs the question of possibility-- especially I'd argue it was one of the most in the loop models for our big snowstorm last week in real time.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Does the low appear to be off the coast 100ish miles or so due west of Olympia?

Hard to tell on satellite.    But here is where the ECMWF says it is right now.

[MWG]

34F at home! on and off snow showers and obviously nothing sticking.

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to tell on satellite.    But here is where the ECMWF says it is right now.

Based on satellite it looks like it’s where my red dot is but who knows?

[bainbridgekid]

It’s a pretty broad area of low pressure rather than a closed low so it’s pretty much impossible to pinpoint it down to a single location.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

The EURO showing it at least begs the question of possibility-- especially I'd argue it was one of the most in the loop models for our big snowstorm last week in real time.

It’ll have a significant elevation component as mid day snow is getting really hard to pull off. Even just the difference between tomorrow and last Wednesday is meaningful. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Based on satellite it looks like it’s where my red dot is but who knows?

I saw that earlier today as well... looked like a well-defined circulation but I think that was just orbiting the parent low to the north.   That little low is heading into Salem in a couple hours.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Earlier, it was 37.4˚F and all snow. Now it is 33.6˚F and mixed with drizzle. LOL.

Just under an inch of accumulation before things got terminally melty. Hopefully will change back to all snow soon now that it's getting darker/cooler.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It’s a pretty broad area of low pressure rather than a closed low so it’s pretty much impossible to pinpoint it down to a single location.

Yeah... its pretty messy and its in the process of decaying after looking so well formed yesterday on satellite.   I think that was its peak.  

[Doinko]

44 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It shows 5-6 inches near the River by Troutdale, Washougal and Camas. I'm pretty skeptical but that would be incredible if it verified.  

HRRR also shows a few bands of snow in the metro area with temps around 32/33. Not going to get to excited since marginal events barely go well here but something could happen at least

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

HRRR also shows a few bands of snow in the metro area with temps around 32/33. Not going to get to excited since marginal events barely go well here but something could happen at least

That buries us… seems like a huge batch of moisture heading onto the Oregon coast right now… 

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM... a little better for northern areas but bad for the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

Total precip through tomorrow evening per 00Z NAM.  Its definitely a precip issue for the Seattle area.

[bainbridgekid]

High-res NAM is pretty spotty tonight.

[MossMan]

Temp down to 32.9 and my snow is starting to crunch up instead of being squishy! 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High-res NAM is pretty spotty tonight.

I have never gone back and verified it... but it always looks to me like the high resolution NAM goes too far with terrain.   Like the only place it really precipitates in on hills.    I am exaggerating there but that is sort of what it seems like.   I could be wrong.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total precip through tomorrow evening per 00Z NAM.  Its definitely a precip issue for the Seattle area.

by "seattle" you mean south of georgetown lmao. like 1/5 of the actual city

[GHweatherChris]

50 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty sad and pathetic.

It really is.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

by "seattle" you mean south of georgetown lmao. like 1/5 of the actual city

Yeah... I have a central King County bias even though I try to be careful and I am aware of it.    I was actually looking at the map after I posted it and realized the city of Seattle does pretty well.  

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, Doinko said:

HRRR also shows a few bands of snow in the metro area with temps around 32/33. Not going to get to excited since marginal events barely go well here but something could happen at least

Dang, I'll believe that when I see it.  6-8". lol

[MossMan]

We are almost to the point of looking at the most reliable model out there…

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

It really is.

This post is sad and pathetic.  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We are almost to the point of looking at the most reliable model out there…

LOL.   Except this one is primarily going to happen during the day.  

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have never gone back and verified it... but it always looks to me like the high resolution NAM goes too far with terrain.   Like the only place it really precipitates in on hills.    I am exaggerating there but that is sort of what it seems like.   I could be wrong.

It definitely goes hard with uneven QPF over tiny distances. Kind of the opposite of the GFS and GEM’s too broadbrushed QPF maps.

Here’s the high-res precip map:

 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This post is sad and pathetic.  

Just a sec, I need to go spastically do some research on this to confirm.....

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

It definitely goes hard with uneven QPF over tiny distances. Kind of the opposite of the GFS and GEM’s too broadbrushed QPF maps.

Here’s the high-res precip map:

 

Good way of putting it... it never looks right to me.   

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I have a central King County bias even though I try to be careful and I am aware of it.    I was actually looking at the map after I posted it and realized the city of Seattle does pretty well.  

It's deceptive. Downtown is on the northeast side of Elliott Bay, that little notch there. It's even more confusing for someone like me who lives wayyyy up near the city limits more than seven miles away from DT and in the PSCZ's homegrounds.

It means a lot of tweets going "Seattle will miss out!" while also having an image attached depicting the most epic pepto colors over my house. Simultaneously I am too far south and too low in elevation to be considered a part of Shoreline or the Snohomish plateau. Lake City is unfortunately no-man's land for weather forecasters... Neither quite what they mean by Seattle, nor Snohomish county.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Just a sec, I need to go spastically do some research on this to confirm.....

LOL... I love ya Chris.    

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

LOL.   Except this one is primarily going to happen during the day.  

I thought it was supposed to start late tonight? C’MON!!! 

[Olive1010]

Bruh all of this is so confusing lol 

[Phishy Wx]

pretty much every Meso has trended snowier here with the current event.  hoping for a surprise.  Media is going 1-3".  NWS going 2-4"

[Meatyorologist]

Jaya is KNOT onboard... 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought it was supposed to start late tonight? C’MON!!! 

Yeah... there is some scattered stuff tonight but the main action for your area appears to be from about 6 a.m. through noon tomorrow.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total precip through tomorrow evening per 00Z NAM.  Its definitely a precip issue for the Seattle area.

Yuck, it even swings too far north for here. Looks like that nails the exact same area that was nailed last week in a completely different setup.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Bruh all of this is so confusing lol 

It really is confusing... there are so many variables tonight and tomorrow that its hard to keep it all straight. 

[Olive1010]

So we won’t get snow in the northern Willamette valley right