11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[james1976]

Is this the beginning of cycle 2? Or are we still finishing out 1st cycle?

[Clinton]

Is this the beginning of cycle 2? Or are we still finishing out 1st cycle?

 

I believe we are in cycle 2.  Seems to be a very short cycle this year.

[Tom]

12z EPS snow mean showing a big jump in accumulation across IA into S/C WI. DSM to MSN jack zone.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Tom, how does the eps fair for Eastern Neb peeps?

[james1976]

I believe we are in cycle 2. Seems to be a very short cycle this year.

Could be. This small warm up coming along with the rain fri-sat reminds me what happened early Oct.

[Clinton]

Could be. This small warm up coming along with the rain fri-sat reminds me what happened early Oct.

I think more in the line of 36 day cycle.

[Tom]

Tom, how does the eps fair for Eastern Neb peeps?

Looks good...3-4” mean

[Tom]

All of NE is covered by the 2” snow mean which is a good signal this far out. Man, it’s crazy close for those in N IL../nail biter that’s for sure...

[bud2380]

Not sure if this was posted or not, but it's the 12z GEFS mean.

 

[james1976]

Not sure if this was posted or not, but it's the 12z GEFS mean.

 

Way NW of the OP

[BMT]

New CPC hazard Map http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

[Stormhunter87]

Like that euro ran mmm tasty could see a blizzard watch. Not going to get my hopes up until the nam picks it up.

[hlcater]

Jackpot 4 days out in November. I’ll be damned if this doesn’t end up trending further northwest.

[ToastedRavs]

NWS Des Moines prefers the slower European per their latest, and quite early for them, forecast discussion for what it's worth. And they are not known for their love of snow.

[St Paul Storm]

Jackpot 4 days out in November. I’ll be damned if this doesn’t end up trending further northwest.

You mean like this? It has a hot hand right now, but it’s still the NAM. Toss it? Or is it seeing something the others aren’t?

[Stacsh]

Mid-Michigan back in play!! 

[ToastedRavs]

Ahh...the NAM. Previously known as the ETA model back in the day. Aka, Errors Thrown Around.

[bud2380]

DMX

 

 

the best chances for moderate to heavy accumulating snowfall from about
the highway 30/I-80 corridor southward toward Missouri.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Friday afternoon disco:

 

There will be a chance

for rain mainly to the north of Interstate 80 during the afternoon

Saturday. By evening, the precipitation will spread across the area

and as colder air spreads into the area rain will mix with and

eventually change to snow. In addition to the snow, there will be

strong northwest winds which could cause some blowing snow. The snow

should end sometime on Sunday. At this time, the GFS and Canadian

bring an end to the snow earlier than the ECMWF.

 

For this system, there are a few things that are fairly certain,

there will be rain changing to snow and wind. The combination will

likely cause some travel problems and the general timing of Saturday

night into Sunday could cause problems for the return trip after

Thanksgiving. There are still enough uncertainties with this system

that it has several challenges. As mentioned before, the models have

different timing for the change to snow and the ending of the

precipitation. The amount of snow will be highly dependent on both

of them, a longer duration of snow will amount in more snow. The

amounts are still beyond the normal time we have values.

[bud2380]

18z GFS coming in a bit north from 12z. 

[bud2380]

More in line with the Euro.  Just south of the Euro now, but not like it was at 12z.  Not quite as heavy on the precip, but widespread 1/2" to nearly 1" amounts of qpf.  

[bud2380]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112118/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Jaycee]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112118/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Talk about a nail biter for us in Chicago! I’m one county away from seeing some flakes. Then again, I’m heading to Madison tonight for thanksgiving so it should be fun!

[Money]

I like where IA/S. WI is sitting right now

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow yea....not exactly too thrilled lol. Always 0z tonight

[james1976]

18z slightly stronger than 12z. Maybe it will baby step it's way back north.

[Hoosier]

I like where IA/S. WI is sitting right now

I agree.

 

Wouldn't have much hope for significant snow in Chicago. Maybe far northwest suburbs but even that is iffy.

[hlcater]

Looks like my climo favored far western solution from a few days ago is becoming less and less likely. Hmph. 

[Money]

FV3 GFS is a IA/s. WI crush job

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Fv3 gfs looks a lot better for east central neb!

[FarmerRick]

I just put the snow tires on my Son's car after work today.  

 

Oma-dome has been activated.  

 

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/61/61ae27b7d508ccbab3b28107995e6a74d6fca59d9f5be63220da2e3715baf5ea.jpg

[gabel23]

 

I just put the snow tires on my Son's car after work today.

 

How old is your boy rick? I was gonna take my tiller off my allis chalmers and put snow blower on tomorrow but would hate to jinx it. Tonight and tomorrow will be a big day of model watching that’s for sure, hoping you get to use those tires Sunday!

[FarmerRick]

 

I just put the snow tires on my Son's car after work today.

 

How old is your boy rick? I was gonna take my tiller off my allis chalmers and put snow blower on tomorrow but would hate to jinx it. Tonight and tomorrow will be a big day of model watching that’s for sure, hoping you get to use those tires Sunday!

 

 

Will be 17 in April. He's been driving for 3 years, we used to live in the sticks and he learned to drive gravel roads before paved ones. 

[jaster220]

For those of us further east and not expecting the cold air to catch up with the storm, nonetheless just having a strong autumn system is always nice.

 

GFS is about 10 hrs faster (as usual), but really close to the Euro for 120 hrs out. Just talking potential track and/or strength. As mentioned by several others, it's too far away for models to sort thermals and such. Just nice to see the track and strength not collapsing at this point.

 

 

 

The eventual track and intensity of that N stream wave will be key imho. I'll be keeping a close eye on trends in those regards.

[Niko]

For those of us further east and not expecting the cold air to catch up with the storm, nonetheless just having a strong autumn system is always nice.

 

GFS is about 10 hrs faster (as usual), but really close to the Euro for 120 hrs out. Just talking potential track and/or strength. As mentioned by several others, it's too far away for models to sort thermals and such. Just nice to see the track and strength not collapsing at this point.

 

20181121 18z GFS h108 MSLP.PNG

 

20181121 12z Euro h120 MSLP.PNG

 

The eventual track and intensity of that N stream wave will be key imho. I'll be keeping a close eye on trends in those regards.

Great points there.

[Money]

NAM at 84 looks really similar to euro/gfs

[jaster220]

GRR biting. Pretty surprised tbh.

 

 

The system for late in the weekend continues to come into good
agreement in the deterministic operational models. The ECMWF,
Canadian and GFS all have a deepening low moving from Central
Illinois towards Toledo. The exact track differs some but the
general trend is a fairly deep low passing off to our south. What
this means for us is a rain changing to snow scenario. 850mb temps
hit +2C on Sunday and cool to -3C to -7C Sunday night. A swath of
accumulating snow is very possible given this scenario with both the
ECMWF and GFS indicating 4+ inches by Monday morning. Moral of the
story is we are watching this system with interest, but we have time
to dial in the area and amounts going forward. At this point the
confidence is slowly creeping up as each model run comes in with a
similar look and feel.

Behind the Sunday night system, colder air will flow into the area
with -10C air likely. Lake temperatures are near +8C so delta t`s in
the upper teens will produce solid instability. An upper low will be
over the Great Lakes region with the ECWMF and the GFS indicating
the potential for a potent shortwave interacting with an unstable
lake convective boundary layer. The bottom line being that solid
lake effect snow appear fairly likely Monday night into Tuesday.

 

Looks like winter part deux may come in with a vengence. I see they're are keen on the follow-on LES as well. The trend is my friend..

[jaster220]

NAM at 84 looks really similar to euro/gfs

 

go NAM. Can't wait to see it in it's wheel house

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nam is a nice hit for eastern neb!

[jaster220]