Niko Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Thats why I don't like Snows in November because it means Bad December. A relaxation tends to develop afterwards. So, half of December will be gone dry and cold. Cant wait to see the other half Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Currently cloudy and temps at 29F w a dusting earlier today. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Thats why I don't like Snows in November because it means Bad December. A relaxation tends to develop afterwards. So, half of December will be gone dry and cold. Cant wait to see the other half Don’t look at the 00z runs. Gonna be quite awhile until there’s something to even track. El Niño rearing it’s head? I’m no expert but yawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Don’t look at the 00z runs. Gonna be quite awhile until there’s something to even track. El Niño rearing it’s head? I’m no expert but yawn.Agree Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 That was a rainer for us from the get-go. NextEven Montreal, Ca gets rain.....if there is even a next... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 We are in Savannah, GA it is clear here this AM with some light frost. On the trip from Charleston WV to here yesterday there was just over 2" of new snow at Charleston and there was snow on the ground and falling until past the 2nd tunnel in Virginia, The rest of the trip was partly cloudy and rather cool for down here, One item of note is that there are still leave on the trees South of Charlotte NC with some good color left, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 I haven't been posting much lately but this morning I've decided to chime in on some latest trends in the models for the potential of a large storm system across eastern portions of our sub later next week. At this range, the ensembles are getting somewhat excited for developing an OV/Lower Lakes cutter. I've noted before, that the blocking pattern setting up across Hudson Bay/E C.A. is ideal to produce a favorable storm track across portions of our sub and it's likely going to deliver. This will not be the last storm to track before the Winter Solstice. So, while we endure a chilly week/weekend ahead, and our southern friend @Okwx gets to enjoy his first snow of the season, our "pullback" is on the table next week but that doesn't mean we will lack tracking any storm systems. This year's LRC pattern has flashed its moments of relaxation, but don't get used to it as I believe a busy period is forthcoming leading us up to the Winter Solstice and the holiday season. As for the next storm system that our eastern sub members will likely track, I believe its directly related to the Oct 19th-20th MW/GL's deep trough which brought intense snow squalls and very strong winds across the region. It's not a surprise to me the operational and GEFS ensembles are flashing some pretty strong members. I'm not going to focus on thermals at this range even though its going to be an issue depending on how strong this storm ends up becoming. Nonetheless, the 14th-16th period has been on my calendar and there will be a storm to track. Let's hope we can score a winter storm out of this. On a side note, I just realized this period will be another weekend storm. It's crazy how many big storms have hit on the weekend this season so far. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Some light snow falling again this morning, for like the 4th time this week. Current temp of 19F but that’s the high for today as CAA is on the move. Currently -2F in Fargo. We should bottom out around 0F tonight. Snow depth is 4”. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Some light snow falling again this morning, for like the 4th time this week. Current temp of 19F but that’s the high for today as CAA is on the move. Currently -2F in Fargo. We should bottom out around 0F tonight. Snow depth is 4”.That's awesome man. I just took a stroll around the neighborhood and you can feel the CF has swept through as CAA heads our way. Ya, your snow should stick around for a while. The warm up coming should keep your night time temps up but day time temps shouldn't really jump that much above freezing. I bet it's frozen concrete. We still have a lot of snow piles left over with plastered leaves frozen to them and provides a little bit of snow cover...not! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Thats why I don't like Snows in November because it means Bad December. A relaxation tends to develop afterwards. So, half of December will be gone dry and cold. Cant wait to see the other half Bingo. I had about 15” in November and as of 12/1 had basically nothing to show for it. Since then it’s been mild and wet, cold and dry, and now looking like mild and dry to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 I know there isn't much to track for most of us on this sub-forum but you have to remember that winter has just started. By being spoiled with the November snows we would want it to continue but I think most of us knew that we were pretty darn lucky to get so much so early. This pullback is no big deal as I truly believe that once we start tracking storms again that winter will lock in and will be a memorable one for many. Even the snowiest years from "77-79" had its lulls but once winter locked in it came with a vengeance and stuck around for quite some time. Let the south get their storm as I would rather have them get it than the Northeast. Can't wait for the fun to begin so enjoy the quiet for now and get ready for a powerhouse winter! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 @ Clinton, you get any snow from the frontal disturbance? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 I haven't been posting much lately but this morning I've decided to chime in on some latest trends in the models for the potential of a large storm system across eastern portions of our sub later next week. At this range, the ensembles are getting somewhat excited for developing an OV/Lower Lakes cutter. I've noted before, that the blocking pattern setting up across Hudson Bay/E C.A. is ideal to produce a favorable storm track across portions of our sub and it's likely going to deliver. This will not be the last storm to track before the Winter Solstice. So, while we endure a chilly week/weekend ahead, and our southern friend @Okwx gets to enjoy his first snow of the season, our "pullback" is on the table next week but that doesn't mean we will lack tracking any storm systems. This year's LRC pattern has flashed its moments of relaxation, but don't get used to it as I believe a busy period is forthcoming leading us up to the Winter Solstice and the holiday season. As for the next storm system that our eastern sub members will likely track, I believe its directly related to the Oct 19th-20th MW/GL's deep trough which brought intense snow squalls and very strong winds across the region. It's not a surprise to me the operational and GEFS ensembles are flashing some pretty strong members. I'm not going to focus on thermals at this range even though its going to be an issue depending on how strong this storm ends up becoming. Nonetheless, the 14th-16th period has been on my calendar and there will be a storm to track. Let's hope we can score a winter storm out of this. On a side note, I just realized this period will be another weekend storm. It's crazy how many big storms have hit on the weekend this season so far.Looks to be a pretty warm system. GFS OP actually wraps some cold air in on the northwest side, but no other model is though. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 @ Clinton, you get any snow from the frontal disturbance?Just a light dusting here, but about 30miles to my NE got 2in. I'm liking the looks for a big one next weekend for the forum. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like GFS is a bit further west and colder for the 14th-16th storm. 850s looked better anyway but idk what surface temps look like. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Much of the snow down south, from nw Texas through MO/AR, has really diminished on recent model runs. All those GFS runs throwing a bunch of snow up into KS/MO were very wrong. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 yesterday's 12z Euro looks interesting.. Bombs due north from there slamming The Mitt 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 yesterday's 12z Euro looks interesting.. 20181205 12z ecmwf_z500_mslp_216hr.png Bombs due north from there slamming The Mitt It does, until you look at the 850 temps. Really needs to bomb and draw some cold air in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Fv3 showing a storm towards Christmas here although it is an odd storm. Maybe a trough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Bingo. I had about 15” in November and as of 12/1 had basically nothing to show for it. Since then it’s been mild and wet, cold and dry, and now looking like mild and dry to come.Its the routine it usually follows...nothing new. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Currently, light snow and wind w a dusting as the Arctic front approaches. Lows tanite in the teens. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 yesterday's 12z Euro looks interesting.. 20181205 12z ecmwf_z500_mslp_216hr.png Bombs due north from there slamming The MittHopefully, it can pull its own cold air. My highs for that particular date are in the 30s, kinda marginal. I guess we will see what happens. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like GFS is a bit further west and colder for the 14th-16th storm. 850s looked better anyway but idk what surface temps look like. 12Z GFS has next week modeled pretty decent as we return to the Nov 6th-11th part of the pattern that gave me my first 2 accumulating snows of the season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 The 12Z Euro is as quiet as I have seen for most of the forum members. Would like it to jump on board with GFS. Always feel better if the Euro is seeing something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Anyone have a EURO of the snowstorm for my area? I don't have the subscription. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 Anyone have a EURO of the snowstorm for my area? I don't have the subscription. Thanks! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 It's 50* light rain. And miserable. More rain tomorrow all day. I know you guys love cold, but I'm a Texan.....we dig sun baby ! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Came home from work and saw a whole bunch of people running around frantically. Then I saw an ice breaker boat speeding up towards my shoreline. At first I was thinking ‘who the flip is this, and why are they ruining the ice?’ Turns out a cross country skier fell through the ice about 40 ft from the shoreline. The water is about 25 ft deep at that point. He had been in the water for about 25 minutes before someone found him and called for help. They got him out but he was in rough shape. I think the recent snow we had over the weekend was too heavy for the ice and made it pretty weak. I probably won’t be able to set up my ice rink this winter as the ice won’t refreeze nicely, but I’m glad he’s alive. Scary stuff. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 St Paul Storm- your story doesn't surprise me,I was up visiting my mom over last wkend. I grew up on a lake in the N Metro and she still lives there. Lake was entirely frozen over and I knew I could easily walk across it (about 1/4 mile in the narrowest part) but thought better of it as it was only NOV and still early even with the recent cold. There were some spots that looked iffy in the same locations as usual but I never thought I would see what I did after that 2-3" of snow and strong wind come Sunday. Open water in those spots. This with 7" of clear ice in most other spots. Early ice is dangerous ice and I don't get it why people can't wait a couple weeks (even with mild temps) and allow the time for the latent heat stored in the bottom of the lake from the summer be released.... No rush. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Came home from work and saw a whole bunch of people running around frantically. Then I saw an ice breaker boat speeding up towards my shoreline. At first I was thinking ‘who the flip is this, and why are they ruining the ice?’ Turns out a cross country skier fell through the ice about 40 ft from the shoreline. The water is about 25 ft deep at that point. He had been in the water for about 25 minutes before someone found him and called for help. They got him out but he was in rough shape. I think the recent snow we had over the weekend was too heavy for the ice and made it pretty weak. I probably won’t be able to set up my ice rink this winter as the ice won’t refreeze nicely, but I’m glad he’s alive. Scary stuff. He's very lucky. I remember falling thru ice in a small pond when I was in grade school. It was just one leg, but that leg got good and soaked and it was well below freezing and a several block hike home with a boot full of ice water. The falling in came as a shock, and the icy water was a physical shocker adding to the mental surprise. As I recall I was all alone so it could've been bad if I went under without a buddy around to help me out. Ever since, I never really presumed ice to be safe, and would ride my sleds only where I knew the situation to be safe, never risking the edge of winter. Just not worth it. Glad you didn't have a tragedy to post about. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 I had a few hvy snowsqualls earlier this evening as I was exiting the restaurant dinner. It did not amount to much, but roads did become slippery. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 It's 50* light rain. And miserable. More rain tomorrow all day. I know you guys love cold, but I'm a Texan.....we dig sun baby ! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Current temp at 27F w a few flurries still flying around. Lows dipping to 18F by morning. Wcf in the S.D's. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Potent system, but needless to say, I'd not be a happy camper with a near miss east as depicted by the FV3 next Sat Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Potent system, but needless to say, I'd not be a happy camper with a near miss east as depicted by the FV3 next Sat Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Grizzcoat and Jaster.....good posts. I’m honestly shocked that anyone is out on the ice already. You can tell by looking at it that it’s not safe. The fire department said the ice was only one inch thick where the skier was pulled out. It was 4-6” in other spots. My rule of thumb is: don’t be the first person on the ice. It’s not worth it. Winter is a long season here. Better to wait and be safe. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Definitely most models seeing a system about a week out. GFS brings it up the OH river as yet another psuedo-miller B. The snow shield JUST gets into SMI then it x-fers it's energy to the coastal and keeps it progressively moving eastward. Whereas the FV3 above and that Euro run from 05.12z bundle the energy dropping in from the north and do something of a merge-bomb in the E Lakes. Oh well, just something to amuse at this range.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 At this range, I'd have a hard time buying any of the more amped-up solutions since there's virtually zero precedent for a 970 mb low during any winter month south of The Mitt, but particularly in December. November may have had a couple (1913 White Hurricane and the Great Appalachian Storm of Nov 1950 are the two potential candidates) but I cannot think of one single GL's bomb in December. Just not our month historically speaking. One of the strongest Dec bombs was Dec 15, 1987 and that only got to 980 mb coming straight north from the Gulf states. It's just really hard to pull-off. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 At this range, I'd have a hard time buying any of the more amped-up solutions since there's virtually zero precedent for a 970 mb low during any winter month south of The Mitt, but particularly in December. November may have had a couple (1913 White Hurricane and the Great Appalachian Storm of Nov 1950 are the two potential candidates) but I cannot think of one single GL's bomb in December. Just not our month historically speaking. One of the strongest Dec bombs was Dec 15, 1987 and that only got to 980 mb coming straight north from the Gulf states. It's just really hard to pull-off.That 1913 White Hurricane sounds awesome. Wish we can get one like that today here in our neck of the woods. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 Verbatim, GFS has a pretty nice looking system for that same MO/IL/IN region that I've said would make out well this winter. Loses steam up my way as the transfer takes place. Hoping for a different outcome, but I might be bucking the seasonal trend in expecting it, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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