January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z EURO EPS Control run looks promising at day 15. Positive 850mb temps up into Alaska with a SE ridge. Just need the ridge to amplify and retrograde some more.

 

[Deweydog]

A dynamic summer where they hit 100 a few times and also get some nice troughs, convective outbreaks and marine pushes would be great. Unfortunately we seem to get dullsville Stockton-lite stuff these days. Weeks of 80s and 90s with little to no variation. Maybe a token morning clouds/70s thrown in every few weeks.

Sounds delightful either way.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ya , I am not feeling it, I think increasing clouds will hold temps up and upper air will warm rapidly ahead of the precip. Hoping for a surprise though.

Offshore flow can do some magic sometimes. An advisory for wind in the east Puget sound lowlands is a good sign.

[jcmcgaffey]

Depends what part of the east you’re talking about, but most of our rainfall occurs during the warm season with thunderstorms and tropical downpours. Tough to keep drought going for very long. Winter is our “dry season” and generally speaking, cold winters are drier than warm winters here. So having warmth + drought for an extended period of time is extremely difficult.

 

FWIW, we’ve had plenty of warm winters recently. The winters of 2012/13, 2015/16, and 2016/17 were extremely warm, and 2017/18 was slightly warmer than average. Also, the last two winters (16/17 and 17/18) were both pathetic for snowfall..combined they still add up to a below average single-season total.

Ah interesting that makes sense.

[jcmcgaffey]

Impressive looking storm off the coast:

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[TT-SEA]

Back home... power is on and there is still a little snow left in the grassy areas. A few ice pellets falling now too.

[Deweydog]

384!

[Jesse]

Sounds delightful either way.

I prefer the latter scenario. Nothing better than watching our native vegetation slowly die off or be consumed by flames.

[Deweydog]

I prefer the latter scenario. Nothing better than watching our native vegetation slowly die off or be consumed by flames.

Only YOU can prevent forest fires.

[Jesse]

Only YOU can prevent forest fires.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I prefer the latter scenario. Nothing better than watching our native vegetation slowly die off or be consumed by flames.

There has been plenty of rain in forks and Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

There has been plenty of rain in forks and Seattle.

 

 

Much more than just those two cities... but you already know that.    

 

This is the kind of post that keeps the divisive banter going.    

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty good agreement in the long range ensembles

 

[Front Ranger]

There has been plenty of rain in forks and Seattle.

Seems like Forks would be a good place to hold the official giving-up-on-winter weenie convention next weekend.

[Deweydog]

Pretty good agreement in the long range ensembles

 

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Late February/early March!!!

[Phil]

Pretty good agreement in the long range ensembles

 

988B3F80-6053-4070-B46D-2A5EE4989686.png DA28BA66-3A6E-4377-AE26-F7F3554D2E21.png 95539274-D9A7-4EA9-B80F-47F9A793AA35.png

Now to retract that jet a little more and perhaps retrograde the ridge for a backdoor shot. Or try the Hail Mary with the monster W-Arctic block and dam a bunch of cold air into SW-Canada.

 

Both will be tough to do. But as counterintuitive as it seems, even with the ridgier look, these solutions are dynamically “closer” to getting continental/Arctic air into the region than the Pacific hose jobs are.

[Front Ranger]

Now to retract that jet a little more and perhaps retrograde the ridge for a backdoor shot. Or try the Hail Mary with the monster W-Arctic block and dam a bunch of cold air into SW-Canada.

 

Both will be tough to do. But as counterintuitive as it seems, even with the ridgier look, these solutions are dynamically “closer” to getting continental/Arctic air into the region than the Pacific hose jobs are.

That's right.

 

You can't spell hope without EPO.

[Deweydog]

So blocking is better than zonal flow for cold weather fans?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So blocking is better than zonal flow for cold weather fans?

 

Allegedly

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like we could outdo January 2018 for warmth.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we could outdo January 2018 for warmth.

 

And next year we will outdo Jan 19.

[Deweydog]

It’s January 7th.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s January 7th.

Ugh! A week has already been wasted

[Deweydog]

Ugh! A week has already been wasted

A week closer to inversion season!

[Omegaraptor]

A week closer to inversion season!

 

Isn't fog most common in November and early December?

[MossMan]

It’s January 7th.

Seems like yesterday that it was only November 7th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I seriously think next winter will be even worse and mtn snow will also be terrible too if it's a godzilla nino.  Hopefully I can move to Bend by 2020.

[Kayla]

Euro weeklies look great!

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you live east of Indiana.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like we could outdo January 2018 for warmth.

 

If it ends up being a drier than normal month, that is unlikely.

[James Jones]

I seriously think next winter will be even worse and mtn snow will also be terrible too if it's a godzilla nino.  Hopefully I can move to Bend by 2020.

 

Unlikely it will be worse than this one even if it is a strong Nino. If this winter ends up being the all time dud it's shaping up to be (still only January 7th so things could change) it would take almost nothing to surpass it. Plus second year Ninos are often better than the first, '15-'16 was much better than the preceding winter for example, as was '87-'88.

[BLI snowman]

PDX's low max so far this season is 42 and their season low is 29. Neither mark looks likely to be bested any time in the near future and both marks would be all time records for futility. Even in 2002-03, PDX managed a high of 41 at one point, and a low of 27. Factor in the ongoing dryness and this is shaping up to be a pretty special breed of dud. A Sacramento winter following a Sacramento summer.

[Deweydog]

It’s January 7th.

 

In the interest of full disclosure, January 8th IS fast approaching.

[Front Ranger]

Unlikely it will be worse than this one even if it is a strong Nino. If this winter ends up being the all time dud it's shaping up to be (still only January 7th so things could change) it would take almost nothing to surpass it. Plus second year Ninos are often better than the first, '15-'16 was much better than the preceding winter for example, as was '87-'88.

 

It's a pretty small sample size...there have only been back to back Ninos 5 times since 1950. 

 

Those 5 have ranged from terrible (1969-70) to bad (2015-16, 1987-88) to ok (1977-78, 1958-59) regionally. 

[Tyler Mode]

Weather geek delight...

So I pull up to my parent’s house today and I’m only outta my car 30 seconds when my dad comes out and says “Let’s go look at the storm damage in the neighborhood!” So we hop back in the car and drive around talking about the storm and some of the damage, taking pictures etc.

 

I think my dad is a weather geek at heart and I get teary eyed with his excitement for the weather! He’s been helping maintain my/his station at his house since 1995. Clearing debris away from it, taking snow measurements and making general observations. Couldn’t love him more!

 

The tree that took out power to my parents.

 

 

Tree snapped on my dads block.

 

 

My dad looks at a pine tree on his property that snapped off.  Peak wind there was just 39 mph but he mentions it was very gusty/erratic.

 

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

PDX's low max so far this season is 42 and their season low is 29. Neither mark looks likely to be bested any time in the near future and both marks would be all time records for futility. Even in 2002-03, PDX managed a high of 41 at one point, and a low of 27. Factor in the ongoing dryness and this is shaping up to be a pretty special breed of dud. A Sacramento winter following a Sacramento summer.

At least there’s no tule fog yet...

 

Oh wait.

 

There was tule fog in Salem on 11/25.

[Front Ranger]

PDX's low max so far this season is 42 and their season low is 29. Neither mark looks likely to be bested any time in the near future and both marks would be all time records for futility. Even in 2002-03, PDX managed a high of 41 at one point, and a low of 27. Factor in the ongoing dryness and this is shaping up to be a pretty special breed of dud. A Sacramento winter following a Sacramento summer.

 

Even if there is no modified continental/Arctic air the rest of the way, pretty decent odds of a ridgy inversion at some point, which would probably get the job done.

 

Then again, climo was thrown out the window and then bludgeoned to death by Tim.

[Jesse]

PDX already down to 40 as of 6pm. Seems pretty chilly for this late in the spring.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a pretty small sample size...there have only been back to back Ninos 5 times since 1950. 

 

Those 5 have ranged from terrible (1969-70) to bad (2015-16, 1987-88) to ok (1977-78, 1958-59) regionally. 

 

Well we can take 1969-70 off the table because it was preceded by one of our great winters of all time. I would agree a bad, but slightly less bad winter is looking most likely. 

 

If so the 2014/15-2019/20 stretch of winters will go down as one of the worst 6 year stretches on record. People with more knowledge of the first half of the 20th century will need to chime in, but at least as bad as the 1999/2000-2004/05 stretch and maybe the worst stretch since the late 30s early 40s?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A non-torchy 40/33 day today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The average high at SLE last January was 52.1...If we end up warmer than that...

 

Their coldest max was 45 and they had 4 60+ highs.

 

The average low was also 39.4. 

 

They have already had a high of 43 this month and equaled last January with 2 sub freezing lows (25,26 both below the monthly low in 2018). 

 

That said the next week looks pretty mild, we'll have to see if it overachieves on warmth to keep us in the ballpark.