January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

That map is skewed. There's no way a PNW winter can be lumped into the same ballpark as a Florida winter...

 

It actually rarely if ever snows in the Olympic Mountains or Vancouver Island ranges. Little known fact.

[Jesse]

Nice to see that the east winds have held on at the mouth of the gorge, and low level cold has remained stuck in the central and eastern gorge. Probably bodes better for a fake cool spell locally with the upcoming ridge.

[Requiem]

This is actually my dream here. A little intimidating though. Something from the so-called "clown range" to lighten things up.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

The 18z on January 19th will be killer.

How so?

[Phil]

Keep in mind there are both seasonal and state dependent differences in wavetrain responses to EHEM forcing at this time of year. On tail end of an intraseasonal phase of equatorward +AAM deposition/z-cell retraction (IE: now) it could be argued that EHEM convection might aid in extending the east-Asian jet which could teleconnect to split flow over western North America. And historically speaking, forcing has often darted very quickly thru the EHEM towards the WPAC/warm pool during such regimes.

 

This doesn’t preclude a retrogression (a backdoor blast is a distinct possibility) but it probably does preclude cool NW flow/-PNA at this point. Nothing is certain but it’s interesting to think about.

[Bryant]

What if its a north windstorm brought along by a strong Fraser River blast?

You sir have a deal

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 currently. 51/38 day up here. 

[Jesse]

You sir have a deal

Teens and 20s when the power is out are much more enjoyable than 30s and 40s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The excitement over tonight's 00z run is palpable. 

[Phil]

The excitement over tonight's 00z run is palpable.

Not enough westerly flow for you?

[Omegaraptor]

This is actually my dream here. A little intimidating though. Something from the so-called "clown range" to lighten things up.

 

 

This storm had better not die out before it hits.

[ShawniganLake]

486 thickness crosses the border into the US. Impressive.

[TT-SEA]

48 and clear at SEA... not your typical clear night in January.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

West coast warm finger.

This is embarrassing.

[Esquimalt]

Ensembles look rather forgettable tonight.

[Bryant]

Teens and 20s when the power is out are much more enjoyable than 30s and 40s.

I'll make it enjoyable if it's snowing!

[MossMan]

I'll make it enjoyable if it's snowing!

I remember being powerless for the majority of the November 2006 event...1.5 feet of snow on the ground and a low of 10 and a high of 21 made for some chilly times but the wood stove going 24/7 kept things manageable. No generator at that time so I just put all of the fridge/freezer items outside so that wasn’t an issue either. Loved that week even without having power!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I remember being powerless for the majority of the November 2006 event...1.5 feet of snow on the ground and a low of 10 and a high of 21 made for some chilly times but the wood stove going 24/7 kept things manageable. No generator at that time so I just put all of the fridge/freezer items outside so that wasn’t an issue either. Loved that week even without having power!

Dreamy!

[ShawniganLake]

This is actually my dream here. A little intimidating though. Something from the so-called "clown range" to lighten things up.

 

You should have made a trip up to the crab grounds today. ~935mb low in the North Pacific

[MossMan]

Dreamy!

It sure was...oh the good old days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The fv3 is a pretty good run. Lots of cold air in bc and a few lows coming close to the sweet spot.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It sure was...oh the good old days.

I just looked at stats from 2008. I had snow on the ground from December 14 to Jan 8 with a peak depth of 25 inches. What an amazing winter.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro dumps a bunch of cold air into the BC interior at the end of next week.

[Deweydog]

Bombgenesis alert!!!

[ShawniganLake]

I just looked at stats from 2008. I had snow on the ground from December 14 to Jan 8 with a peak depth of 25 inches. What an amazing winter.

The winter of 08-09?

 

The snowcover here lasted thru about mid March with the exception of a few days in February and a couple in early March.

[El_Nina]

When real stuff happens in life it reminds you how small the weather is in the end. Stay thankful everyone.

[Deweydog]

When real stuff happens in life it reminds you how small the weather is in the end. Stay thankful everyone.

Careful, you’ll end up labeled ATF.

[El_Nina]

Careful, you’ll end up labeled ATF.

Yep, over my head.

[MossMan]

This looks fun.

 

Just another natural tree thinning day.

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

Shawnigan, could you post the ten day precip map as well?

[ShawniganLake]

[ShawniganLake]

[James Jones]

5C222DCC-7EF3-4AD6-960B-F4C74ECD6CD3.pngBF62C30F-2810-4DE4-96D7-B08B0019462F.png

 

Looks like the ridge is slowly moving west on the 15 day EPS.

[El_Nina]

Took a drive to Hood River last night. There was no snow remaining.

[Gradient Keeper]

Good things ahead? Patience will be required.

 

I am liking the prospects for strong blocking around 140-135 W possibly retrograding around/after the 22nd to the end of January. That could mean we only see backdoor cold air, or maybe modified arctic air depending on the configuration and amplitude of the block. C'MON!!!!

 

Additionally it appears we're going through another brief transitory split flow regime only to see the jet possibly consolidating fueling some deep lows yet again inside 130 W. Potential wind storm pattern setting up. After that a s**t ton of cold air will be on our side of the pole into NWT/YT/BC/AB ready to drop southward. With El Nino fading quickly and only ENSO-Neutral atmospheric conditions expected the back half of Winter might be NUTS!

 

6z GFS in 22 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z just tried to pull a surprise Winter Storm for PDX inside Day 7. If that cold air dug a little more. IF. C'MON!!!!

 

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011106/150/500h_anom.na.png

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6z just tried to pull a surprise Winter Storm for PDX inside Day 7. If that cold air dug a little more. IF. C'MON!!!!

 

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011106/150/500h_anom.na.png

 

A little tweaking and it could be a Willamette Valley Special.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Or a southwest B.C. delight.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Kinda looks like on the 06Z GFS after the 20th the Pacific may be trying to shut down finally, nope still too progressive, darn near the end of the run the lows in the pacific aren't as progressive as that off shore high is to close to the coast needs to retrograde and build north , maybe potential on future runs the last few frames though looks really like the Pacific is shutting down no stupid lows crashing about out there. Any way's you guy's are better at wording this stuff if I've got the right idea.