jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Zoomed in 00z gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Icon is cutting the storm too hard. Per storm disclaimer that the icon sucks.Seriously I don't know why the ICON is given so much weight. It's always an outlier, and not the good kind. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Areas north of interstate 80 in Iowa look good for this. More like hw20, the typical heavy snow southern boundary in winter. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 00z FV3 still cutting the low right over Cedar Rapids. The Canadian is still even farther north. Below zero to rain in 72 hours. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yea I initially thought this would for sure trend south with the snowpack but apparently cutting a weak shearing out low over deep, cold snow is just something that happens. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Pretty borderline on this one. Really... just don’t want a bunch of rain to mess with our snowpack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 It's that little wave to the NW screwing with things. It acts to tug on this wave as there is zero blocking to the north in Canada Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 00z FV3 still cutting the low right over Cedar Rapids. The Canadian is still even farther north. Below zero to rain in 72 hours. My sentiments exactly Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ukie S at HR 72 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 UKIE HR 72 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ukie S at HR 72 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ukie also appears cold enough aloft for snow--- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looking like all rain for Iowa City(Where I'll be for this storm for sure). The last system I thought I was gonna be in IC then ended up back in CR. Still doesn't make sense to me. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro closer look 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 little too close for comfort imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Rain/snow line too close to here, would like a 30 mile shift south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looking pretty good here but like others have said, the rain snow line is a little close for comfort. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 06Z NAM- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro closer lookDes Moines seems to sit on the line on near nothing to a lot way too much. Last 2 were ok, but so close but so far. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 This system will likely be the 4th event of the winter season when Polk Cty has been the diviiding line between ; all rain to less than 2" , 2"+ and 6" to 6"+ one county away. Crazy stuff. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 00z GEFS...very similar to the 00z EPS and takes the SLP right over N IL...not liking the chances to remain all snow here. Anyone north of the "cheddar curtain" has a better chance to remain all snow. Edit: On a brighter note, this system looks to fill in the snow holes in NE/MN/WI/MI... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 OAX has 0.10" of ZR followed by 1-2" of snow for Lincoln, yuck. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 LOT thinking more of a mix situation and not as much rain here. the afternoon souds like a mess Overall, messy conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon and night,with potential impacts across much of the area. Because of thecomplexities of this system, details on snow and ice amounts remaindifficult to determine. However, at this time, the potential existsfor several inches of accumulating snow across the northern tier ofcounties, a mix of ice and snow accumulations generally between theI-88 and I-80 corridors (including the entire Chicago Metro), andice accumulations south of I-80. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 MPX going with 2-4” here which even at the low end would be close to my biggest snowfall of the season. The best part is that the snow might be around for a few weeks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 NWS Hastings talking about winter headlines in morning disco. With freezing drizzle again, yippy, then snow and 40 mph winds potentially, will they issue something tonight or Monday morning? Interesting day of model following ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 First time all year I'm liking my spot. GRB disco sounds like WAA snow will cover the Northwoods with much needed snow and central Wis should sit in the defo zone. Fingers crossed we can get snowmobile trails open next weekend. 2 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yuck nam drops the system way south. Dry air is abundant and freezing drizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Last two runs of the NAM are way further south. Brings heavy snow right into MBY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 NAM is crap here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 NAM http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012012&fh=75&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam Good hit for southern WI (8-12) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'll take it.NAM has nailed the last two storms by us. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z NAM...this would be a favorable trend for N IL... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'll take it.NAM has nailed the last two storms by us. RPM model looked very similar to the NAM and had the R/S line along and north of I-90 from what I could tell. Nice trends so far for Chicagoland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 That NAM is best case scenario. I would love to see majority of Wisconsin get 2+" of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z NAM 3km also coming in colder across all of IA into N IL...you can see the models this morning pulling down colder air as the system is showing signs it wants to phase with the northern stream as it tracks across the MW/GL's...check out the 500mb animation... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 06 euro, 10:1 ratio 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 NEMI slam-job thru 84hrs Can we just run with the NAM for once?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Another storm, another cutoff in my county. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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