TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Monday night has good potential down here with a possible deformation band. Definitely. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 5 Energy is splitting. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I actually think the low level offshore flow will aid the PDX area early Monday morning. Call me crazy but I'm still a little on board. https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 [#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day The major SSW saved this Winter IMHO, not the low solar. I haven't studied SSW events as much as other people but I could tell this one was one of a kind. We are now seeing the powerful downstream effects of it.It could be argued that solar minimum is the reason the SSW was able to occur, though. The photochemical effects on the thermal wind (in tandem w/ QBO) is not negligible, to say the least. In fact, the wave driving that kicked off the SSW wasn’t all that strong..however it was amplified within the stratosphere, almost like an echo chamber. Part of this can be explained via the QBO state/MQI, however, similar cases have tended to fail during solar maximum. So I have little doubt that the Sun played a role in allowing the SSW to occur in the first place. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I actually think the low level offshore flow will aid the PDX area early Monday morning. Call me crazy but I'm still a little on board.Me too. WRF has consistently shown this. I think ECMWF and NAM to an extent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Day 7 when is that last time you saw this much blockiness and positive anomalies? WOW. That's nuts! The mega block potential might pull the PV vortices right friggin over southern BC at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 18z gets there somehow... Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 A few tweaks and we'll see a regional snowstorm on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 18z gets there somehow... Sort of inevitable on every run now... and if a run does not get there then throw it out. The EPS has the cold locked in. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 However, yes, when you trace the origins of this jet retraction/TPV dissolution (hence -PNA/-NAM), it clearly traces back to the SSW event. Without question. So yes, just like last winter, the SSW saves the day at the last minute. We’re lucky it occurred early this time, because it had to battle the +ENSO-ish background state for the entire month of January before ultimately neutralizing it. Last winter was a La Niña, so it wasn’t much of a fight following the event (and it downwelled quickly following a powerful WAFz event). Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Let me be the first to bring back terms like wet bulb cooling, cold air damming (ie Forest Grove Effect), windshield splat test, hungry coast range and finally, "Now we go live to ***** who is at Council Crest." Bonus points if anyone can accurately identify the name given to the wall to wall local media coverage. Double bonus on the over/under on Polar Vortex references. I'll set it at 12.5 after the first flakes fall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Let me be the first to bring back terms like wet bulb cooling, cold air damming (ie Forest Grove Effect), windshield splat test, hungry coast range and finally, "Now we go live to ***** who is at Council Crest." Bonus points if anyone can accurately identify the name given to the wall to wall local media coverage. Double bonus on the over/under on Polar Vortex references. I'll set it at 12.5 after the first flakes fall.In Seattle it is Jim Foreman from King5 that they always send out. I am constantly amazed at how many times the top story on the Seattle newscasts is rain. Not rain that causes floods, or rain in the summer that can help out with wildfires, just plain old ordinary rain, and time after time after time it is the top story in the news, usually the 11PM news. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Looks like they are going for 2" or so here. Which would make sense. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Drunk uncle looks like it might be getting ready to do drunk uncle things... Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Looks like they are going for 2" or so here. Which would make sense. I think it's gonna happen for you man. You will be able to sit outside and enjoy a beer with snow falling. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Drunk uncle looks like it might be getting ready to do drunk uncle things... Molest children? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 In Seattle it is Jim Foreman from King5 that they always send out. I am constantly amazed at how many times the top story on the Seattle newscasts is rain. Not rain that causes floods, or rain in the summer that can help out with wildfires, just plain old ordinary rain, and time after time after time it is the top story in the news, usually the 11PM news. Stormin' Jim Foreman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 The next 2 weeks will be fun. I cant believe the patter shown on the gfs. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 The next 2 weeks will be fun. I cant believe the patter shown on the gfs. It might go well beyond the next 2 weeks as well. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Year without a summer!! 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dairyd Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 The next 2 weeks will be fun. I cant believe the patter shown on the gfs.is it me or are there hints of a kona low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 It might go well beyond the next 2 weeks as well. This might be the closest thing we've had as far as long lasting cool to cold since 2008. It looks like chances for snow every few days or so. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Stormin' Jim Foreman This is hilarious: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Year without a summer!!A February without a summer. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 This might be the closest thing we've had as far as long lasting cool to cold since 2008. It looks like chances for snow every few days or so. December 2016/January 2017 happened... 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 December 2016/January 2017 happened...Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 This is hilarious: That is ABSOLUTELY hilarious, I can barely breathe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 This is hilarious: Hahahaha. Had,to share this with my dad and brothers! https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I've a hunch this will be the longest thread of the season. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 18z goes nuts in the long range. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Hahahaha. Had,to share this with my dad and brothers!"We've seen some dorritos!" I wish I had seen it before, it is brilliant. It was made 6 years ago. Wondering if Jim Foreman himself has ever seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 300+ is back baby!!! My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 lol 1969 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Not here. Hoquiam had 38 of 44 days come in below average from December 4-January 16th. The first 16 days of January 2017 were below average... I really really doubt we'll run a streak better than that in the next month and a half. Olympia and Seattle had 18 straight below normal days from December 30-January 16th. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dairyd Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 ukie has an interesting track. IME gets the upper air and pacific tracking better. YMMV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 1969 February 1990. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 February 2019. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I know some of you like to follow the PNA. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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