February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[joaqweri]

here's also the 12z FV3 who anyone who hasn't seen it yet. mainly 8-12" for the sound, with the highest totals of 12-14" in west kitsap. 8-10" for seattle, tacoma, and olympia.

[Christensen87]

12z WRF looking snowy again for many.

 

Snow doesn't start until after 4PM.

 

I wonder why there has always been a dry space around the Enumclaw area, is this most likely due to the drying east winds that may make an appearance? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Trending worse and worse for here.

You will score. I'd bet a fiddle of gold.

[Kayla]

FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event.

 

[awright31]

I like it. Still skeptical about the temps, though

Screenshot (182).png

here's also the 12z FV3 who anyone who hasn't seen it yet. mainly 8-12" for the sound, with the highest totals of 12-14" in west kitsap. 8-10" for seattle, tacoma, and olympia.

[joaqweri]

FV3-GFS actually shows PDX being ground zero with the weekend event.

in both the seattle and portland areas, it has the highest totals of 12-14" west of both cities. here in seattle, it would be west kitsap and in portland it would be the coastal mountains.

[Front Ranger]

yeah, expecting the seattle NWS to issue a winter storm watch later today or tomorrow.

 

I'd be surprised if they pull the trigger before tomorrow morning.

[Prairiedog]

FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event.

 

Rod Hill has that covered.  Rain/snow mix at best. 

[Esquimalt]

in both the seattle and portland areas, it has the highest totals of 12-14" west of both cities. here in seattle, it would be west kitsap and in portland it would be the coastal mountains.

Amounts on the FV3 have been dwindling up here.  I think it's showing higher outflow which means more snow is dried out. 

[joaqweri]

I'd be surprised if they pull the trigger before tomorrow morning.

winter storm watches are issued 2 days prior at the most, so i'd expect them to issue either tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Requiem]

Worried about Monday-Tuesday being completely removed. I still think something will happen, even in Portland.

[joaqweri]

Amounts on the FV3 have been dwindling up here.  I think it's showing higher outflow which means more snow is dried out. 

still shows a good 6" for the victoria area in the latest run. don't lose hope!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event.

 

Yeah, it's shows PDX changing over to snow by Saturday 4am. Nice moderate snow all day Saturday.

 

[Canadian guy]

Amounts on the FV3 have been dwindling up here. I think it's showing higher outflow which means more snow is dried out.

It still looks decent for here.

[BLI snowman]

Canadian went full Euro again, about 20" here.

 

[Kayla]

FWIW the RGEM shows snow already falling by early Friday morning in the SEA area.

 

[awright31]

FWIW the RGEM shows snow already falling by early Friday morning in the SEA area.

 

 

Problematic. Higher likelihood it rains.

[ewnichols25]

only got down to 22F, bottomed out around 7am this morning.

Are you in a wind-exposed location? Hit 17 here earlier this morning.

[BLI snowman]

FV3-GFS actually shows PDX now being ground zero with the weekend event.

 

 

 

Overdone, but I am liking the consensus track right now. With the low staying offshore, Multnomah and Clark Counties should stay in ESE flow the whole time on Saturday even with the low to our north. Should be plenty of wet snow on Saturday morning with that if the precip rates are as modeled, before the stronger offshore flow moves in Saturday afternoon and we drop below freezing.

[Jesse]

Worried about Monday-Tuesday being completely removed. I still think something will happen, even in Portland.

 

My guess is this operational GFS run will be a huge outlier on the ensembles in that time frame. Not handling the cutoff energy well.

[GHweatherChris]

So many new members, so many new opinions...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z fv3.

[Kayla]

Problematic. Higher likelihood it rains.

 

What makes you say that?

[Jesse]

So many new members, so many new opinions...

 

Smells like a bunch of librul millenials. I'm already mad.

[Timmy]

Canadian went full Euro again, about 20" here.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

where the heck are you located? Bellingham, Blythe or brush prairie?

[Kayla]

Overdone, but I am liking the consensus track right now. With the low staying offshore, Multnomah and Clark Counties should stay in ESE flow the whole time on Saturday even with the low to our north. Should be plenty of wet snow on Saturday morning with that if the precip rates are as modeled, before the stronger offshore flow moves in Saturday afternoon and we drop below freezing.

 

Yeah it's a fine line though. Don't want it to trend anymore offshore that's for sure.

[joaqweri]

Are you in a wind-exposed location? Hit 17 here earlier this morning.

don't think so. winds have been calm most of the time.

[Timmy]

My guess is this operational GFS run will be a huge outlier on the ensembles in that time frame. Not handling the cutoff energy well.

I think he is caling some of these negative posts “jokes”. This may be one of them

[joaqweri]

in anticipation of this weekend's potentially historic snowstorm, im watching this timelapse again of the historic snowstorm in the northeast 3 years ago. dropped 2-3ft along the I-95 corridor.

[awright31]

Precipitation hits during the warm period on Friday. I would hope that it waits a little bit until after the cooldown starts on Friday night to prevent any rain issues.

 

 

What makes you say that?

[Prairiedog]

Worried about Monday-Tuesday being completely removed. I still think something will happen, even in Portland.

Then you shouldn't be worried.  You're right, "something" will happen.  Keep studying the models, do your due diligence and enjoy the possibilities.  Sometimes we win, sometimes we don't.  Things look promising right now but it's never an absolute like some try to make it be until it happens.  We all want snow.  Patience is part of this game we play here.  Worry won't make it happen or not.  Enjoy the journey!  It will warm up one of these days.  We will return to rain, split flow, and moss.  Don't waste the here and now.  These are the fun times. 

[Jesse]

I think he is caling some of these negative posts “jokes”. This may be one of them

 

That wasn't a negative post. The operational GFS was much worse for the early week period compared to other models. I think it's an outlier

[Gummy]

So many new members, so many new opinions...

 

My gut feeling is that the models continue pushing the snow progressively farther south with each run and seattle gets the short stick like in 2012 while Portland gets 14 inches.

 

How did I do?

[BLI snowman]

where the heck are you located? Bellingham, Blythe or brush prairie?

 

Just ESE of Ridgefield.

[awright31]

Smells like a bunch of librul millenials. I'm already mad.

 

More like Gen Z

[Jesse]

That wasn't a negative post. The operational GFS was much worse for the early week period compared to other models. I think it's an outlier

 

Or maybe you meant K12 and understood mine. Can't keep up!

[Requiem]

My guess is this operational GFS run will be a huge outlier on the ensembles in that time frame. Not handling the cutoff energy well.

 

Yep, I hope so. Especially since it was such a radical departure from previous runs.

[Kayla]

Precipitation hits during the warm period on Friday. I would hope that it waits a little bit until after the cooldown starts on Friday night to prevent any rain issues.

 

925mb temps are forecasted to be around -3c with offshore flow Friday morning. You won't see any rain.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Canadian went full Euro again, about 20" here.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

Nice and snowy.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Keep posting model frames of all kinds and sharing this forum around. We are building a time capsule to what is already unprecedented in the model era and if the next couple weeks play out, something that rivals an all time great event.

 

When this is done, I'll spend a weekend and you your posts, maps, images, and obs to build a story from the first frame with a block to the last flake from the sky.

It would be interesting to go back to the  January forum to just before the models starting locking in on this.  IIRC, it had been showing something good, backed off on it for awhile, then suddenly starting showing something good and here we are.