Jump to content

February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1


Guest hawkstwelve

Recommended Posts

Keep posting model frames of all kinds and sharing this forum around. We are building a time capsule to what is already unprecedented in the model era and if the next couple weeks play out, something that rivals an all time great event.

 

When this is done, I'll spend a weekend and you your posts, maps, images, and obs to build a story from the first frame with a block to the last flake from the sky.

We may lose members along the way due to info overload and eye candy but stay the course!

A07337FC-326A-4A44-8867-39AF595F6A46.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be interesting to go back to the  January forum to just before the models starting locking in on this.  IIRC, it had been showing something good, backed off on it for awhile, then suddenly starting showing something good and here we are.  

 

I remember all the stress about the Kona low earlier in January. Wow, times change quickly.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My gut feeling is that the models continue pushing the snow progressively farther south with each run and seattle gets the short stick like in 2012 while Portland gets 14 inches.

 

How did I do?

You did well.  You just convinced me to stop looking at and analyzing the models and start going with my gut.  Go Portland! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder why there has always been a dry space around the Enumclaw area, is this most likely due to the drying east winds that may make an appearance? 

East winds have historically been a major factor for along with shadowing of how the flow wraps around the Olympics. Many times we can see area's around us get snow and we end up substantially less. I am doubt that will be a huge factor and if it is, we should still do well overall. I do have a concern about a rain start if southerly flow is strong enough but feel it won't last long (if at all) and at the end of day we still come out with 3 to 6 inches. EXCITED!   :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then you shouldn't be worried.  You're right, "something" will happen.  Keep studying the models, do your due diligence and enjoy the possibilities.  Sometimes we win, sometimes we don't.  Things look promising right now but it's never an absolute like some try to make it be until it happens.  We all want snow.  Patience is part of this game we play here.  Worry won't make it happen or not.  Enjoy the journey!  It will warm up one of these days.  We will return to rain, split flow, and moss.  Don't waste the here and now.  These are the fun times.

 

Very wise words

It is time to just take in what’s before us and know the door of winter has finally opened

Link to comment
Share on other sites

East winds have historically been a major factor for along with shadowing of how the flow wraps around the Olympics. Many times we can see area's around us get snow and we end up substantially less. I am doubt that will be a huge factor and if it is, we should still do well overall. I do have a concern about a rain start if southerly flow is strong enough but feel it won't last long (if at all) and at the end of day we still come out with 3 to 6 inches. EXCITED!   :)

Ya, i don’t like the south wind push either but I know it’s just temporary! Hoping the wet bulb will push us through that transition and no rain will be seen

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

i was referencing k12

Mine was a valid concern.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm positively giddy for you guys and all my family/friends in the PNW. Wish I wasn't so busy with work so I could keep up more with the models and analysis!

 

At least I'll be able to closely follow along this coming weekend. :)

The first time I can recall being legit excited for a winter weather pattern out there..haven’t seen a wavetrain like this in forever. The forcing structure is much better than even December 2008 (as modeled)..and it’s all made possible via extratropical RWB forcing on the tropics, rather than having originated in the tropics first. ENSO be d*mned.

 

I want to see 19th century snow records at least challenged, if not obliterated. It’s actually a possibility this time.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first time I can recall being legit excited for a winter weather pattern out there..haven’t seen a wavetrain like this in forever. The forcing structure is much better than even December 2008 (as modeled)..and it’s all made possible via extratropical RWB/internal modes, rather than having originated in the tropics first. ENSO be d*mned.

 

I want to see 19th century snow records at least challenged, if not obliterated. It’s actually a possibility this time.

 

 

Ehhhh... that's a big statement. I had upwards of 18" in 2008

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first time I can recall being legit excited for a winter weather pattern out there..haven’t seen a wavetrain like this in forever. The forcing structure is much better than even December 2008 (as modeled)..and it’s all made possible via extratropical RWB forcing on the tropics, rather than having originated in the tropics first. ENSO be d*mned.

 

I want to see 19th century snow records at least challenged, if not obliterated. It’s actually a possibility this time.

first time since 2008 I didn’t have to use the “marginal” caveat
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ehhhh... that's a big statement. I had upwards of 18" in 2008

Yeah, to be clear I’m only talking about the modeled wavetrain/large scale pattern, and the components driving it going forward. Overall I do think this is a healthier wavetrain than December 2008 with a very different dynamic origin.

 

What that might entail for you locally, I’m not sure. My knowledge on PNW mesoscale dynamics isn’t very good. I’m trying to learn more, though!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 at SEA, 23 at PDX for lows today.

 

Both are lagging behind yesterday's temps, looks like some cloudcover developing at the right time.

 

 

There is virtually no cloud cover up here... just some lake fog.  

 

Its totally sunny at SEA...

 

518vc00252.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Friday through 10 a.m.

 

No sign that a massive snowstorm will start in Seattle just 6 hours later.   But the 00Z run had no sign either and it still got there.

 

ecmwf-snow-6-nw-10-1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Friday through 4 p.m.   Here it comes.    At least everyone should be able to get home safely that afternoon.   The craziness will start in the evening.

 

ecmwf-snow-6-nw-11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So glad I found this thread. I don't know anyone else who cares about weather, or even knows how to look at a forecast. Most people just love those garbage hourly forecasts from their cell phones. 'It's supposed to snow non stop for the next 6 hours!', or 'We're going to get a break from the rain at 4pm.' 

  • Like 2

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 34

      May 6-9 Multi Day Severe Weather Outbreak

    2. 7602

      Polite Politics

    3. 793

      Middle East Conflict of 2023-2024

    4. 793

      Middle East Conflict of 2023-2024

    5. 855

      May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

×
×
  • Create New...