SouthHillFrosty Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 There will not be a hole like that... the ECMWF did not show that. Good cause i would be pissed to miss out on this event since we only got 4 inches from the past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Temp is stuck at 22.2. Couple degrees warmer than last night at this time. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Does the model think it is warm there or a model glitch...I've seen it multiple times over the years...I just think it overestimates outflow. It must assume SE outflow at that time. It will be wrong. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Yeah that one set an extremely high bar. Nearly 20" in about 7 hours at my house. Doubt I'll ever see that again even here in Bozeman. I really do hope to see something like that again, but the next few weeks I'm just shooting for a few inches. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrozenBites Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I just think it overestimates outflow. It must assume SE outflow at that time. It will be wrong.Seems like a good conclusion. I've never seen it on the European though. Possibly a resolution issue to perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Really not impressed by the FV3. It went from showing over a foot here to nothing in a few runs Could happen, but the more consistent models have been showing something significant in the 6-8" range. I'm not sure how the FV3 does in short range forecasting, it's not a mesoscale model, I figured it was more of a mid-long range model. FV3 represents weather through points in connected grid cells, so it can resolve weather that comes in irregular shapes. The current GFS represents all weather as waves. It’s been successful in large-scale modelling, but weather phenomena do not always follow wave patterns on the local level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Fri/Sat is now a wait and see period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Could happen, but the more consistent models have been showing something significant in the 6-8" range. I'm not sure how the FV3 does in short range forecasting, it's not a mesoscale model, I figured it was more of a mid-long range model.Just concerns me, considering the euro is also saying minimal amounts up here. But we have seen the WRF be correct before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just got into Chesaw. Chilly minus 5. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like the FV3 shows snow for the Seattle area on Monday evening. Hard to tell how much since only the radar simulation has updated. Here is Tuesday morning... That looks like a transition event. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 WRF and FV3 look a lot better for PDX, I think the GFS is probably underplaying the easterly winds. I think as long as the EURO doesn't waver we could get a few inches down here. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like the FV3 shows snow for the Seattle area on Monday evening. Hard to tell how much since only the radar simulation has updated. Here is Tuesday morning... That looks like a transition event.Maybe zoom in? Tropical tidbits has a regional page. I don’t know how you can see that. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Maybe zoom in? Tropical tidbits has a regional page. I don't think FV-3 has that feature. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Monday/Tuesday system comes down to phasing of two different troughs. It's not a single system moving through that you can easily track. That is why it seemed to form out of thin air on the ECMWF on Monday. It's could be an all or nothing situation. I trust the ECMWF more in a delicate situation like this... but there is a higher bust potential than usual. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just concerns me, considering the euro is also saying minimal amounts up here. But we have seen the WRF be correct before Well the WRF seems to be hinting at the greatest snowfalls being on east facing slopes. I can kind of see where it would be getting it with the low slowly pulling offshore. The bands of moisture will follow. This is what you want to see (widespread 8"+ to the NW and SE), gives more room for things to shift around. Just don't get too excited, 48 hours is like an eternity in snow forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I don't think FV-3 has that feature.Ah you’re right, my mistake. Just an eastern US one. #EastCoastBias 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Really don't like where the FV-3 has been going the past few runs. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 im trying to not focus on the mon-tue storm until after the weekend storm moves out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 WRF is nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.Is this a serious post, or some type of allusory punchline? Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 WOW The second to last paragraph is all one sentence. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS ensemble maybe coldest yet start to finish. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.Cool, I already stopped sniffing glue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Really not impressed by the FV3. It went from showing over a foot here to nothing in a few runsI wouldn’t worry about it. It’ll be wrong. Ukmet looks good. Also shows the second system being quiet juicy next week. All other guidance looks good for at least 4”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Natalia Poklonskaya Behind Microphones 06022019213049.jpg Accurate. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Is this a serious post, or some type of allusory punchline?Correct. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS ensemble maybe coldest yet start to finish.Care to post? My link is broken once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Natalia Poklonskaya Behind Microphones 06022019213049.jpg I love your memes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Natalia Poklonskaya Behind Microphones 06022019213049.jpgTim has destroyed GFS's career single handedly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Care to post? My link is broken once again. Not updated quite yet but this is what I've been using: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=135728&model=gfs&var=201&run=18&lid=ENS&bw= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Down to 27 here. Running colder than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Monday/Tuesday system is going to be very difficult to predict. Much harder than the Friday/Saturday system which is a single storm coming through. If the phasing does not happen on Monday... there could be nothing at all. If it phases perfectly like the 12Z ECMWF showed then there could be a massive snowstorm. It literally formed out of nothing right over western WA on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF run. No other model has shown that perfect balance. But its also the ECMWF so it carries more weight and might end up leading the way and the other models will catch up. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I wouldn’t worry about it. It’ll be wrong. Ukmet looks good. Also shows the second system being quiet juicy next week. All other guidance looks good for at least 4”+ And then there's the GFS ensembles, the average works out to about 8.7", similar to what the WRF shows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I love your memes.Haha thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Not updated quite yet but this is what I've been using: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=135728&model=gfs&var=201&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=Thank you. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 One historic event at a time... 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Monday/Tuesday system is going to be very difficult to predict. Much harder than the Friday/Saturday system which is a single storm coming through. If the phasing does not happen on Monday... there could be nothing at all. If it phases perfectly like the 12Z ECMWF showed then there could be a massive snowstorm. It literally formed out of nothing right over western WA on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF run. No other model has shown that perfect balance. But its also the ECMWF so it carries more weight and might end up leading the way and the other models will catch up.No phasing would be dry cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts