March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

In other news, the Sun has certainly fell asleep and will likely leave its mark in the years to come.  The entire month of Feb had ZERO sunspots and I personally believe we are heading into a deep solar minimum which will have big implications into global weather patterns.  In fact, I'll make a bold prediction that some places across the central/southern Plains will prob experience a "year without a summer".  I'm not expecting any long duration heat waves this summer across the plains while to the N/NE the ridge will pop.  Given the overall cyclical pattern, I expect a lot of precip which will hold temps below normal across the Plains and into the MW this Summer. 

 

 

 

A MONTH WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: There are 28 days in February. This year, all 28 of them were spotless. The sun had no sunspots for the entire month of Feb. 2019.

[westMJim]

Had just over one inch of new snow here and the total on the ground ranges from 6 to 8 inches and of course the snow piles. The old snow is very packed and has almost a ice quality to it.  And the parking lot snow piles some are huge and should last most if not all of March. The baseball season starts here on April 6th and I have my orientation on March 20th It like last year it might be a cold start to this years season.

The current temperature here is 27 with light snow falling. 

[Stormhunter87]

In other news, the Sun has certainly fell asleep and will likely leave its mark in the years to come. The entire month of Feb had ZERO sunspots and I personally believe we are heading into a deep solar minimum which will have big implications into global weather patterns. In fact, I'll make a bold prediction that some places across the central/southern Plains will prob experience a "year without a summer". I'm not expecting any long duration heat waves this summer across the plains while to the N/NE the ridge will pop. Given the overall cyclical pattern, I expect a lot of precip which will hold temps below normal across the Plains and into the MW this Summer.

Getting that feeling too. Also why I am not excepting a strong severe season this year.

[Clinton]

Getting that feeling too. Also why I am not excepting a strong severe season this year.

This pattern with all of these storms, severe weather season may be non stop at times.  I think it's going to be very rough!

[Stormhunter87]

This pattern with all of these storms, severe weather season may be non stop at times. I think it's going to be very rough!

The pattern is good but without the extra energy from the sun I have a feeling it will cap that storm potential. Severe storms usually need that extra something. I had a professor who was doing research to connect solar output/sun spot activity with severe weather. Had some interesting data at the time.

[OmahaSnowFan]

We've had a cold and above normal snowfall month of February, but as someone else here pointed out, for the majority of us, this winter prior to February wasn't that extreme, and now we're ready to declare no summer and no severe weather for the country?  I am in a winter weather forum so I guess I shouldn't be totally shocked.....

[Stormhunter87]

We've had a cold and above normal snowfall month of February, but as someone else pointed out for the majority of us, this winter prior to February wasn't that extreme, and now we're ready to declare no summer and no severe weather for the country? I am in a winter weather forum so I guess I shouldn't be totally shocked.....

Not quite there yet but if this trend continues with solar activity then the next couple of years could be interesting.

[Niko]

Some light snow currently falling from a disturbance moving on through from the west and temps are at 28F. Roads are and look slippery.

[Tom]

We've had a cold and above normal snowfall month of February, but as someone else here pointed out, for the majority of us, this winter prior to February wasn't that extreme, and now we're ready to declare no summer and no severe weather for the country? I am in a winter weather forum so I guess I shouldn't be totally shocked.....

Severe wx will be plentiful in your region and Temps will largely average normal to sub normal. I’m not quite sure yet where the more significant pocket of cooler ex develops in the Summer, but my gut says down in TX and parts of the central/southern Plains/MW. I might start a Spring/Summer thread sometime this weekend since it will be necessary as the itch for Spring fever will be brewing up!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Not quite there yet but if this trend continues with solar activity then the next couple of years could be interesting.

Meh. We had a minimum like this at the end of the last decade with very high numbers of spotless days and look what happened to global temperatures after that. August 2009 went entirely spotless as part of a streak of 52 consecutive days without a spot.

https://www.ign.com/boards/threads/sun-run-of-51-days-without-a-spot-now-among-the-top-5-longest.250531293/

 

2009 was an above average year for severe weather with over 1300 tornado reports.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2009_annual_summary.html

The following year 2010 was a very active severe weather season including over 1500 tornado reports.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2010_annual_summary.html#

2011 was even crazier for severe weather with almost 1900 tornado reports.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html

 

Severe weather is usually such a microscale event that if a temperature is 78 degrees vs 80 degrees, you can still get plenty of severe weather. Moisture and wind energy(where the jet stream sets up) is more important to severe weather. The last few years we've had a delayed spring so cold fronts were constantly ramming through the GOM wiping out moisture return and there were also droughts in the southern and central plains. Then once it warmed up, the jet stream jumped up to Canada. I chase a lot and that was the biggest issues the last couple years, low dewpoints or not a strong jet. Last I heard for this year, the Gulf is still pretty warm and as long as we don't get systems always wiping out the moisture return(which we haven't so far), and if it stays this active with storm systems, I think we could have an active severe storm season.

[Stormhunter87]

2010-2011 both had pretty good sun spot activity. But very good points. I guess we will have to see how plays out. I wouldn't mind an active year, but don't think I should be getting my hopes up yet.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins..

 

[gabel23]

Looks like records will be broken in our area in terms of temps for the first week of march. 

 

SECOND COLDEST FIRST WEEK OF MARCH IS PROBABLE:
- Based on today`s observations and our current official forecast
through the 7th, both Grand Island/Hastings are expected to endure
the 2nd-coldest first week of March on record. The top spot
currently belongs to 1960, when the first week averaged an
incredible 28 degrees below normal at Grand Island, and 26 degrees
below normal at Hastings!

[indianajohn]

that would be a awesome way to end this dismal winter season.........but you know what they say about being in the jackpot zone this early.

Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins..

gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

[BrianJK]

Picked up about 2-3” here in the Northwoods which put the snow depth to just over 40” after a 60”+ February. I won’t ever say it’s too much, but holy hell it’s a lot. Running out of places to put it. Finally looks like a quiet stretch of weather up here though, albeit very cold beginning tomorrow.

[Tony]

Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins..

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

I will leaving for Florida next week so good chance it will happen. I should take IllinoisWX with me to guarantee a lock for the Chicago folks!

[Wxmidatlantic]

that would be a awesome way to end this dismal winter season.........but you know what they say about being in the jackpot zone this early.

Be glad, no crying beautiful woman....

[Tom]

Picked up about 2-3” here in the Northwoods which put the snow depth to just over 40” after a 60”+ February. I won’t ever say it’s too much, but holy hell it’s a lot. Running out of places to put it. Finally looks like a quiet stretch of weather up here though, albeit very cold beginning tomorrow.

Take pics and enjoy the scenery my friend!

[gimmesnow]

Chicago, your Storm Chance is coming. Everybody plays, everybody wins..

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

 

Yeah, but it's the GFS.

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

Yeah, but it's the GFS.

 

Brother I don't post fantasy. Its a logical solution. In the long range, all we ask is a chance.

[Tony]

Looks like all the models are in different camps with regards to both storms next week. Good luck to those in the path currently and to those that will be in its path next week. Gotta love model chaos at its finest.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Looks like all the models are in different camps with regards to both storms next week. Good luck to those in the path currently and to those that will be in its path next week. Gotta love model chaos at its finest.[/quote

 

Its March. Got to love it...

[gimmesnow]

Brother I don't post fantasy. Its a logical solution. In the long range, all we ask is a chance.

 

I know, I just like to rip on the GFS since it's been the cause of so many false hopes this year, lol. Nothing personal, appreciate your input.

[Hawkeye]

The euro moved back north a bit with the March 7th system, drops several inches in Nebraska to Des Moines and an inch or two here.  The big second system, however, has shifted way nw.  The euro now has a hard cutter through nw Iowa, dumps 2-3 ft of snow in SD.

[Andie]

[snowstorm83]

18z GFS gives Lincoln 17" on Saturday lol. It's 7 days out and has like a 1% chance of verifying, but the cold and active pattern is just crazy. 

[Iowawx]

00Z GFS is still showing storm for March 7-8. I am a bit more encouraged about this occurring here because the Euro also has the storm as well. 

[Hawkeye]

The FV3 has drifted north in recent runs, putting more of central Iowa into the decent snowfall.  The Canadian is still south.

[Minny_Weather]

Northeast Nebraska special on 00Z GFS, gives us mostly rain.

[Hawkeye]

00z UK shifted south a bit and is very weak with the first system.

[BrianJK]

Waking up to -10 with a WC of -25. Forecast for -17 tonight, wouldn’t be surprised to see some -20s. Hello March!

[Clinton]

8 degrees with a heat index of -14 and heavy snow falling.

[St Paul Storm]

Waking up to -13F, full sun and blue skies. WC will be as low as -30 today with a high of 2. Ice shanties must be off the lakes by this evening. Watching guys trying to drive on the lake in 23” of snow to pull theirs off is my morning entertainment.

 

Extremely difficult to believe our first 70F day is later this month on average.

[Minny_Weather]

I think cloud cover may have kept our temps above where they were supposed to be last night. -1.7*F.

[gosaints]

Waking up to -13F, full sun and blue skies. WC will be as low as -30 today with a high of 2. Ice shanties must be off the lakes by this evening. Watching guys trying to drive on the lake in 23” of snow to pull theirs off is my morning entertainment.

 

Extremely difficult to believe our first 70F day is later this month on average.

I have to pinch myself when I realize this is march.

[CentralNebWeather]

-4 with a wind chill of -24 at 9 AM on March 3rd.  Incredible.

[Minny_Weather]

-1.1*F with a wind chill of -20*F. This is some January level stuff.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro showing all rain here next weekend. Think we're putting climo back into the picture here sadly. GFS doesn't look much better, giving us snow only on the backside.

[GDR]

Bring on warmer weather and thunderstorms! I’m ready...

[Hawkeye]

At this point, the GFS is the only model that drops any decent snow this far north on the 7th.  The rest are all weaker and/or south.  That's never good.