October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

I could definitely see a pretty decent jet extension midmonth as we transition out of this meridional regime and move into a likely much milder pattern.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a somewhat milder version of the 1985 trough which hit around 10/8-9.

 

Similar trajectory to the 2008 trough which came through on these same dates.

 

Pretty decent record low potential for Thursday and Friday.

The late September trough easily bested 1985's version, and this coming one looks to me like it will get pretty close to 1985's second one. Which of course, was an all-time great for early October.

 

All in all, one would be hard pressed to find a year with two more impressive early fall air masses/troughs.

[Front Ranger]

I have a couple friends from here that moved to Seattle area mid August for her job. Talked to them today and apparently they're loving it...despite the unusually wet September they had to endure.

[TT-SEA]

I have a couple friends from here that moved to Seattle area mid August for her job. Talked to them today and apparently they're loving it...despite the unusually wet September they had to endure.

Did they move to Seattle itself? I would be much more concerned about homeless crisis and the trash everywhere than the weather. Seattle must protect the rights of certain disadvantaged people to completely ruin the city for everyone else. Let them do whatever the hell they want. Its disgusting.

[Front Ranger]

Did they move to Seattle itself? I would be much more concerned about homeless crisis and the trash everywhere than the weather. Seattle must protect the rights of certain disadvantaged people to completely ruin the city for everyone else. Let them do whatever the hell they want. Its disgusting.

Kirkland.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Way colder. 700mb temps only bottomed out around -11 to -12C with the last one.

 

For reference for those that don’t know, 700mb temps here are equivalent to 850mb temps for the PNW lowlands. So it’s a very chilly trough for anytime of the year.

That's good to know. During winter every now and then I accidentally select the 700mb map and get super excited. Only to realize it's not the 850mb map.

[Kayla]

Looks like a somewhat milder version of the 1985 trough which hit around 10/8-9.

 

Similar trajectory to the 2008 trough which came through on these same dates.

 

Pretty decent record low potential for Thursday and Friday.

 

It's gonna give it a run for its money out here that is for sure. The forecast numbers look very similar at this point.

[TT-SEA]

Kirkland.

Nice.

 

Hard not to love Kirkland.

[BLI snowman]

The late September trough easily bested 1985's version, and this coming one looks to me like it will get pretty close to 1985's second one. Which of course, was an all-time great for early October.

 

All in all, one would be hard pressed to find a year with two more impressive early fall air masses/troughs.

 

 

1970 kind of stands out in my mind, although I'm not sure I would say they were both "more impressive" but there a lot of  wild swings that fall with some historic cold thrown in and early arctic clippers.

 

Stations like SLE used to actually be capable of some crazy temp spreads and that fall was perhaps the most extreme on record. In 1970, they had a 70/28 day on 9/13, an 89/39 day on 9/26, and finally a 93/38 day on 10/2.

[Phil]

I could definitely see a pretty decent jet extension midmonth as we transition out of this meridional regime and move into a likely much milder pattern.

Definitely a possibility.

 

Question is, does most of it stay up in BC?

[High Desert Mat?]

1970 kind of stands out in my mind, although I'm not sure I would say they were both "more impressive" but there a lot of wild swings that fall with some historic cold thrown in and early arctic clippers.

 

Stations like SLE used to actually be capable of some crazy temp spreads and that fall was perhaps the most extreme on record. In 1970, they had a 70/28 day on 9/13, an 89/39 day on 9/26, and finally a 93/38 day on 10/2.

That’s crazy. Very rare to even get those kind of spreads east of the cascades.

[BLI snowman]

I have a couple friends from here that moved to Seattle area mid August for her job. Talked to them today and apparently they're loving it...despite the unusually wet September they had to endure.

 

The weather this summer and fall so far has been absolutely lovely IMO.

 

Probably my favorite July to October stretch (thus far) in recent memory, along with 2013.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Nice.

 

Hard not to love Kirkland.

Really not a bad area but hard to live in unless you are rich, like yourself. I love my place out here in Culver. Real people, down to earth people. Not consumed by the rat race.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like there will probably be some 30s around the area tonight.

[snow_wizard]

1970 kind of stands out in my mind, although I'm not sure I would say they were both "more impressive" but there a lot of  wild swings that fall with some historic cold thrown in and early arctic clippers.

 

Stations like SLE used to actually be capable of some crazy temp spreads and that fall was perhaps the most extreme on record. In 1970, they had a 70/28 day on 9/13, an 89/39 day on 9/26, and finally a 93/38 day on 10/2.

 

It's probably no coincidence 1970, 1985, and 2008 all had serious cold somewhere in November and or December.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Did they move to Seattle itself? I would be much more concerned about homeless crisis and the trash everywhere than the weather. Seattle must protect the rights of certain disadvantaged people to completely ruin the city for everyone else. Let them do whatever the hell they want. Its disgusting.

It's even worse in Spokane. I was shocked when we drove through there couple months ago. It pisses me off to see the legit old homeless man with real issues that needs help for real and across the street the lazy 20 year old punk posing to be homeless. I roll down the window and give them a piece of my mind all the time.

[Requiem]

It's even worse in Spokane. I was shocked when we drove through there couple months ago. It pisses me off to see the legit old homeless man with real issues that needs help for real and across the street the lazy 20 year old punk posing to be homeless. I roll down the window and give them a piece of my mind all the time.

Curious, how do you know that this er...”punk”, is pretending? I’m sure there are signs, but what do *you watch out for?

[Blizzard777]

63/48

Felt a bit like summer this afternoon!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Curious, how do you know that this er...”punk”, is pretending? I’m sure there are signs, but what do *you watch out for?

Nice shoes, clean clothing and clean skin and hair. Also most of the fakes won't look you in the eye because they are guilty. A real person in real help has no guilt usually.

[Requiem]

Nice shoes, clean clothing and clean skin and hair. Also most of the fakes won't look you in the eye because they are guilty. A real person in real help has no guilt usually.

 

So, you yell at him every time you passed? Have you asked him if he actually needs help haha?

[TacomaWaWx]

00z actually looks like it has even lower heights by just a touch.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS cold trough is several notches further west than 12z. Thickness a bit lower and  Sub -0c 850s holds over us a bit longer.

 

Model comparison - Tuesday 11 PM

 

00z

 

 

and now 12z

[Kayla]

700mb temps drop to -20C on the 00z run. Definitely a colder airmass than 1985 at face value for here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah 00z is colder. 522 thicknness line dips into NE Washington. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Past 4 runs centered at 11 PM Tuesday. Very noticeable trend to shift the cold trough westward more over us. The Gulf of Alaska block also has trended stronger.

 

Animated GIF > https://imgur.com/nmYOBZR

[SilverFallsAndrew]

- 5 departure today at SLE. -3 departure at PDX and EUG. 

[MossMan]

So, you yell at him every time you passed? Have you asked him if he actually needs help haha?

The person doesn’t want help, the person wants money for more drugs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 42. Probably in the upper 30s tonight.

[Requiem]

The person doesn’t want help, the person wants money for more drugs.

 

Isn't drug addiction technically also a warrant for assistance? Not saying that that is the case in this particular situation-- but the fact that someone is actually out on the streets (essentially begging) for drugs at least hints at some sort of reliance on the thing. Ah well, it's tough, and I'm too naive.

[High Desert Mat?]

Really not a bad area but hard to live in unless you are rich, like yourself. I love my place out here in Culver. Real people, down to earth people. Not consumed by the rat race.

You mean hillbilly rednecks.

[GHweatherChris]

Isn't drug addiction technically also a warrant for assistance? Not saying that that is the case in this particular situation-- but the fact that someone is actually out on the streets (essentially begging) for drugs at least hints at some sort of reliance on the thing. Ah well, it's tough, and I'm too naive.

Most homeless are on drugs, that's the reason I will not give to any of them. Don't believe me, come spend a weekend in Aberdeen, I would bet money you will see a topless crackhead or someone shitting on a wall, someone down on their luck does not do that. And to your first sentence, drug addicts do not warrant assistance from anyone but themselves, they have to make the choice not have their vice easier to acquire.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid and long range GFS appear to be trending cooler and wetter.

[High Desert Mat?]

Most homeless are on drugs, that's the reason I will not give to any of them. Don't believe me, come spend a weekend in Aberdeen, I would bet money you will see a topless crackhead or someone shitting on a wall, someone down on their luck does not do that. And to your first sentence, drug addicts do not warrant assistance from anyone but themselves, they have to make the choice not have their vice easier to acquire.

+1.

[El_Nina]

Isn't drug addiction technically also a warrant for assistance? Not saying that that is the case in this particular situation-- but the fact that someone is actually out on the streets (essentially begging) for drugs at least hints at some sort of reliance on the thing. Ah well, it's tough, and I'm too naive.

Knowing common knowledge about those drugs, I doubt you'll ever make the decision to touch them. Think about that.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Should be a nice day for most people in the PNW tomorrow.

 

Won't be a nice day for people who like rain and gloom.

[Requiem]

Most homeless are on drugs, that's the reason I will not give to any of them. Don't believe me, come spend a weekend in Aberdeen, I would bet money you will see a topless crackhead or someone shitting on a wall, someone down on their luck does not do that. And to your first sentence, drug addicts do not warrant assistance from anyone but themselves, they have to make the choice not have their vice easier to acquire.

I guess. I still feel sorry for them. Give em' some methadone or something, is what I think they should do more.

[El_Nina]

I guess. I still feel sorry for them. Give em' some methadone or something, is what I think they should do more.

That's we you're talking about.

[El_Nina]

I am back from my hunting trip in the Blue Mountains. It was the coldest deer season I can remember experiencing. Snowed about 2" Saturday afternoon/night down at 4000ft and was struggling to reach 40 during the daytime some days. A big flip from recent years.

[GHweatherChris]

I guess. I still feel sorry for them. Give em' some methadone or something, is what I think they should do more.

Methadone is just a handout, it doesn't help, it is just a free government version of METH. Our society is fuckked due to naive perception.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF 5:00 AM Wednesday and I spy 925mb temps of -18c in Central BC. Not bad!