November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

18z looks disgustingly dry. Hopefully wetter runs to come.

 

I'll take the offshore flow at this point provided it is actually cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll take the offshore flow at this point provided it is actually cold.

 

We seem overdue for a wet May/June combo. 

[Requiem]

I love the small reversal of the 18Z. Very complex pattern coming ahead. Hopefully good runs ahead, 18Z Euro was better.

[MossMan]

Dec 2013

It was a fun few hours. Pretty much gone two days later. I don’t care much for the one and done quick overrunners. If we have had a week with snow on the ground and below freezing temps and then an overrunning event...that works. Give me a December 2008 or February 2019 any day over quick few inches that will be slushy goo within hours.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Way to hedge your bets..... Oh we're giving ourselves a 850 mile wide berth on landfall. Seems the modelling is just a touch discombobulated with this pattern change. That's all I have to say 'bout that

Vancouver Island to not just San Francisco but south of it is probably the largest cone of uncertainty I've ever seen.

[Perturbed Member]

And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat.

 

Jan 10th 2017 was glorious in PDX, one of those fairly rare events where the snow happened as a resurgence of the cold air came howling out of the gorge and met the approaching low right over PDX. Brought about a good amount of convection and heavy snow and it stuck around for a long time.  It was cold/snowy for days. 

 

Seems so D**n hard to get such events.

[Blizzard777]

It was a fun few hours. Pretty much gone two days later. I don’t care much for the one and done quick overrunners. If we have had a week with snow on the ground and below freezing temps and then an overrunning event...that works. Give me a December 2008 or February 2019 any day over quick few inches that will be slushy goo within hours.

 

on a positive note the snow hung around longer then Albus Dumbledore  on a chocolate frog card! 

[BLI snowman]

We seem overdue for a wet May/June combo. 

 

May has become Januaryfied in recent years. Perma ridge month now.

[Deweydog]

MLK

[snow_wizard]

39 - 30 for the temp range here today.  Sure wasn't expecting a high that cold.  Already down to 34 tonight.

 

Right now I think next week will get solidly chilly with maybe some lowland snow, but probably not the big one yet.  I'm actually more than ok with that.  Let's get a bunch of small cold snaps and save the big stuff for the Christmas through early Feb time frame.

 

My guess is this winter will probably be pretty dry overall.  A couple of firehoses will probably happen, but those aren't good for mountain snows.  This could be a winter where the lowlands will be disproportionaltely snowy as compared to the mountains (anomaly wise).  If this were a Nina I would think Feb and Mar might deliver some cold zonal flow, but it's not.

 

Amazingly the ECMWF weeklies like the idea of a higher chance of anomalous troughing in the West (NW in particular) than the rest of the country through early January.  FWIW the control shows us getting hammered on Christmas.

[snow_wizard]

And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat.

 

It depends on your microclimate.  My location is pretty bad for warm snows as they are called.  Most of the good ones here are going into cold.  It actually hasn't been all that rare the past few years.

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty remarkable how calm this month has been wind wise.  I've had many days with 0 as my high wind speed.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’ve been out in graham all day was sunny here. Must have stayed foggy in Tacoma, only 44/33 day today pretty chilly.

[High Desert Mat?]

2nd year Niño = crapfest.

[MossMan]

https://komonews.com/news/local/theres-a-snowflake-on-my-app-colder-air-likely-thanksgiving-week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 - 30 for the temp range here today.  Sure wasn't expecting a high that cold.  Already down to 34 tonight.

 

Right now I think next week will get solidly chilly with maybe some lowland snow, but probably not the big one yet.  I'm actually more than ok with that.  Let's get a bunch of small cold snaps and save the big stuff for the Christmas through early Feb time frame.

 

My guess is this winter will probably be pretty dry overall.  A couple of firehoses will probably happen, but those aren't good for mountain snows.  This could be a winter where the lowlands will be disproportionaltely snowy as compared to the mountains (anomaly wise).  If this were a Nina I would think Feb and Mar might deliver some cold zonal flow, but it's not.

 

Amazingly the ECMWF weeklies like the idea of a higher chance of anomalous troughing in the West (NW in particular) than the rest of the country through early January.  FWIW the control shows us getting hammered on Christmas.

 

Places like Eugene, Corvallis, and Albany had more snow than me during the winter of 2013-14. I only had snow with the December and February arctic blasts and those places did better with those events than I did. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Take this with a grain of pepper(or salt?)
00z NAM shows the block setting up a notch further east, a few notches more amplification, and tilt is ever so slightly more favorable. These are trends to watch closely Day 3-4 (HR 72-96) with all 00z runs tonight.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Jan 2017

 

Feb 2019. Even though it ended with a snow-into-mush transition, there was also a big batch of snow just as a reinforcing shot of cold air was coming in (and a respectable snowfall in between the two).

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes!

[jakeinthevalley]

I love the analysis of the models, but I nominate "notches" as the next term that is frowned upon.

[Gradient Keeper]

I love the analysis of the models, but I nominate "notches" as the next term that is frowned upon.

I understand what you're getting at, but what terminology would you prefer? A tad? A smidge? A bit? A hair? When I look for trends in the models and see subtle movements every run sometimes continuing for 8-12 runs that ends up leading up to a larger scale change and difference. I have documented the validity of this several times in the past. Notches for LIFE.

 

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 15 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Massive model runs tonight.

[MossMan]

I love the analysis of the models, but I nominate "notches" as the next term that is frowned upon.

That term was all the rage in February and March of this year!

[Omegaraptor]

We seem overdue for a wet May/June combo. 

 

Spring has quite possibly torched harder than summer in the last 6 or so years. Especially May and June.

[MossMan]

Massive model runs tonight.

Are you going to pull an all nighter?

[Jesse]

Spring has quite possibly torched harder than summer in the last 6 or so years. Especially May and June.

June is a summer month.

[Deweydog]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 Ridge is a pregnant salmons a** hair further east than 18z, 2 pregnant salmons a** hair than 12z

 

[Requiem]

00z GFS Day 1 Ridge is a pregnant salmons a** hair further east than 18z, 2 pregnant salmons a** hair than 12z

 

 

Okay, let's see what happens...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 ridge is 3-4 notches further east than 18z as is the cut-off low situated under it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 Ridge merger slightly delayed.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Gradient Keeper]

2-3 notches better amplification

[High Desert Mat?]

2-3 notches better amplification

Looks west if you ask me

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5

 

[Requiem]

One's saying west, one's saying east, ahhh! Who's right, I wonder?

[The Swamp]

Oh snap!  It looks like the goods are slipping off to the east.

[High Desert Mat?]

One's saying west, one's saying east, ahhh! Who's right, I wonder?

Go be 12 somewhere.