Clinton Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro jumping on the snow wagon with the CMC for next week. I gotta good feeling about this one KC folks lets see how it goes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 EC also showing a southern planes smasher (also predicted by Tom) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 North Tx is currently dealing with flooding and high water warnings on streets. We were saturated by yesterday evening and it has been lightly raining all day and will until about 5 am. One road around the lake near me was closed yesterday. A great deal of runoff going into that lake and I'm sure the Corps of Engineers have opened the floodgates. High 40's tonight and with the wind and rain it feels a lot colder.50's tomorrow with sun, I hope. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Attm, cloudy w temps at 21F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 EC also showing a southern planes smasher (also predicted by Tom) Clinton, you have a good chance w this one. Its a week away, but at least models are showing something meaningful for your area. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Have a feeling that slammer will be a Rainer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Euro jumping on the snow wagon with the CMC for next week. I gotta good feeling about this one KC folks lets see how it goes.Looks like GFS jumping onboard with the 00z run as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 All the local Mets and oax running this next one hot. Hopefully that changes but this winter is running warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 EC also showing a southern planes smasher (also predicted by Tom) Please... all I have to say. Just please. 1 time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 I haven't had much time to put together a LR post, so I'd like to put together some of my thoughts asI've been going back and forth on several ideas and concerns over the past week. Once we get passed this brief, but potent cold surge, the pattern will turn more zonal mid/late next week. A blossoming and expansive ridge will develop over central North America creating an ideal 500mb pattern for slow moving storm systems to traverse the CONUS from west to east. Using the idea of a 30-day harmonic, the aforementioned pattern is going to come close to what resembled back in mid/late December but not nearly as warm as last month. The next storm on deck (23rd-25th) is clearly showing up on the models but there are differences in strength/precip type/phasing etc. This storm system is going to be a tricky one to track due to multiple pieces of energy and the impressive, yet expansive, blocking that will develop over the top. Will both pieces phase together or will it end up becoming a Miller B scenario? We have seen this Miller B storm track once before in the Autumn and given the blocking pattern setting up across S/SE Canada, I think this could be a valid scenario. While the pattern does warm up overall over the next week or so, given the fact that normal temps are near Freezing or below for many of us on here, it doesn't mean it cannot snow. In fact, I have found these patterns to produce a healthy amount of snow if your on the "beneficial" side of the storm. So, where do we go from here??? My LR clues I look for up in the Strat are paying off and the development of a "Southern Stream Dream" storm track is indeed going to evolve to close out this month. Is there a potential "Big Dog" in the works during the final days of the month? The LRC says so...and the models are now starting to "sniff" out the potential and like I've been suggesting, the central/southern Plains/MW are in the vicinity of the potential wintry side of this storm. I believe we are going to be entering quite an active period overall in the extended with multiple chances for winter storm systems. Are we going to see Back-to-Back winter storms??? Is Ol' Man Winter back on the Attack?? While not an overwhelming cold pattern, it is IMHO, setting up to be one that could produce an exciting pattern for those members across the southern tier of our Sub who have missed out on the action thus far. Based off the 00z GEFS/EPS, you can get the idea of a SW Flow pattern conducive to producing "cutters" to close out the month. Finally, this info is likely geared for February but I believe it's an important clue to how this winter may finish. You guys remember Feb '18??? I think we are seeing the models suggest something similar up in the Strat and what could transpire in the weeks to come. The development of the Scandinavian Ridge in the extended is leading me to believe that both the GEFS/GEPS may be right in the idea of a Strat warming event to occur over the Pole to close out January. Does it fully disrupt the PV??? Time will tell but this certainly needs to be monitored as it may contribute to an extended period of cold & wintry weather across the eastern CONUS. My concerns are that the models are just going to deliver another "head fake" which has been the case over the last few weeks. The models have been pretty bad at predicting what to do with the Polar Vortex this whole season as it's been quite strong. We'll just have to see how this all transpires down the road. There is a voice in my head telling me..."Remember what happened down in Antarctica"....last winter down in the southern hemisphere, they had a rare and record setting SSW event that occurred late in their winter season. Could this happen for our winter season??? We'll just have to wait and see. Here's an article that provides some insight to what happened during last year's rare SSW event in the southern hemisphere and also makes note of my comments about Feb ' 18. A rare weather phenomenon for the southern hemisphere - Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) - is amassing in the polar stratosphere. This may lead to unusual or extreme weather in parts of the southern hemisphere (potentially New Zealand) during September and October 2019. SSWs are much more common in the northern hemisphere. You are probably familiar with a major northern hemisphere's SSW event of February 2018 - dubbed the 'Beast from the East' - and odds are you'll be seeing many international headlines with 'September to Remember' in the days and weeks ahead. https://watchers.news/2019/08/22/southern-hemisphere-sudden-stratospheric-warming-2019/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 @ Andie, I remember you posted an article about the depths of the western Pacific Ocean and the potential effects it may end up having for the PAC ocean in the near future. Last year, we saw a brief spike in cooler sub surface temps but it faded away. However, could the ongoing cooling of subsurface waters in the western PAC be a clue for a La Nina next year??? That is a vast amount of cooler waters that is growing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Clinton, you have a good chance w this one. Its a week away, but at least models are showing something meaningful for your area.Ya buddy should have a shot at both of them. Okwx2k4 should have a shot at this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Not liking being in the bullseye this far out. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 That storm in Newfoundland is nuts. Man what experience that would be. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Weak to Moderate La Nina this coming Autumn? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 GFS has a nice track for me next Friday. How are accumulations looking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 @ Andie, I remember you posted an article about the depths of the western Pacific Ocean and the potential effects it may end up having for the PAC ocean in the near future. Last year, we saw a brief spike in cooler sub surface temps but it faded away. However, could the ongoing cooling of subsurface waters in the western PAC be a clue for a La Nina next year??? That is a vast amount of cooler waters that is growing. Oh I hope you're wrong. La Ninas are so hard on us in the south. I'll take Neutral over a Nina. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 GFS has a nice track for me next Friday. How are accumulations looking? 12z GFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 I have a feeling this is gonna go more south this time though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Models differ greatly next week. GFS phases, Euro Doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 This morning's Euro pulls more moisture up here late next week. It's weaker than the GFS, but the Euro is nearly all snow so I'd rather have that than all the rain the GFS is showing. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 This morning's Euro pulls more moisture up here late next week. It's weaker than the GFS, but the Euro is nearly all snow so I'd rather have that than all the rain the GFS is showing.That GFS map above has nice snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Ok, so, on to the next snowstorm. Lets see what we have here. GFS gives me a nice 3-5inch snowfall. I am assuming w all of that snowcover on the ground, temps will be colder than what models are showing. Let the fun begin..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 That GFS map above has nice snowfall totals Except the GFS surges a bunch of rain up through the region before it changes to snow at the end. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 That storm in Newfoundland is nuts. Man what experience that would be.Tell me about it...now, that is a true blizzard. Dang........ 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Another Friday snowstorm in the cards??? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 12z GEFS...starting to show more and more big hits across the Plains/MW/GL's... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 Attm, cloudy w temps at 33F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 There is also another storm to watch a little down the road (Jan 31-Feb1) timeframe. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 This would be nice next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 18, 2020 Report Share Posted January 18, 2020 0.5" of QPF at 35 degrees on the Euro. The winter that keeps on giving... 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Winds are starting to pick up. Colder air rushing in now w possible squalls later tanite. Temp at 33F. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Clinton looks like he will get buried in the coming weeks. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 St. Johns, Canada aftermath after a crippling blizzard rolled on thru........ https://twitter.com/i/status/1218564148172394496 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Clinton looks like he will get buried in the coming weeks.I think I'll get a good one before the month is over, maybe Friday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 How old is this map? Hour 384 isn’t Jan 31st. This has to be from a run from 3-4 days ago... Clinton looks like he will get buried in the coming weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 How old is this map? Hour 384 isn’t Jan 31st. This has to be from a run from 3-4 days ago... Yep...its an old one. I think its from last Wednesday, if my calculations are correctly. I posted it to my friend Clinton to get him all ready and pumped for the snowstorms coming his way. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 I think I'll get a good one before the month is over, maybe Friday.Good luck w that storm next week amigo. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Looks like there is about 3" of new snow tonight. The current temperature here is 24 with snow and some blowing snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 GFS looks meh for next week storm. Good track for Nebraska, but weak and unorganized. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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