Kayla Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I've found that it is best to look at precip totals along with temp profiles to get an accurate snow accumulation estimate than to rely on the 10:1 ratios or Kuchera ratios on the models. This is especially true for out here where we are looking at 40-50:1 snow ratios. 1 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Getting hard to ignore the crazy totals being shown. Last feb showed this and look what happened. Not saying it will but this is the only 2 times i have ever saw these high totals shown over and over. Last February it was the Euro that was showing such totals. This time it is the GFS. If it was the Euro again, I’d take things more seriously. Also, last February the Euro stuck with that story even as the time frame closed in. We’re still a week out from most of that snow. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS ensembles are about the same through the 16th, a bit warmer after that. Not as many members fall below -10C. Operational seems to be fairly in line with the mean. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I've found that it is best to look at precip totals along with temp profiles to get an accurate snow accumulation estimate than to rely on the 10:1 ratios or Kuchera ratios on the models. This is especially true for out here where we are looking at 40-50:1 snow ratios. I do the same... check 850mb temp and precip amounts. I generally ignore GFS snow maps. ECMWF is way better. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Anyone remember how the FV3 performed compared to the old GFS last February? Not a completely fair comparison to the current GFS, since further enhancements were made to the FV3 later in the year. But still might interesting. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Wet morning...up to 0.52" here...1.76 now for January. We're also riding a 7 day rainfall streak currently. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically. Particularly over long periods of time. They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS.Yeah, fun to look at for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I do the same... check 850mb temp and precip amounts. I generally ignore GFS snow maps. ECMWF is way better. Yeah, the GFS seems to really struggle with snow maps for whatever reason. ECMWF is definitely the way to go and even the NAM once within range. Both of the those models pick up on low level dynamics much better. Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Anyone remember how the FV3 performed compared to the old GFS last February? Not a completely fair comparison to the current GFS, since further enhancements were made to the FV3 later in the year. But still might interesting. I might go back and take a look at the February thread, but if I recall it was generally colder and more extreme. And had some absolutely ridiculous snow maps. I think it showed Eugene getting 40"+ with that one storm...Of course there were some pretty big storms... Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 One of the GFS ensembles drops to -19C. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 am SEA AFD long range: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Although the bulk of thisforecast was focused on the impactful near term, there are severalthings to note in the long term. The long term period begins onThursday, where the local area will be under the influence of NWflow aloft in the wake of the Oregon shortwave. A weak speed maxis forecast to dive south from W British Columbia and quicklygraze the area. It appears strong enough to enhance showeractivity across the area before it continues south. Snow levelsare rather low, especially across the northern CWA enough tomention chance of some light rain/snow. Elsewhere in the lowlands,looks like some chilly rain showers. It should be noted thatoverall moisture is not impressive with this quick clipper typesystem given its continental influence.Next organized cold front is on tap for Friday. Given the currenttrack of this system, looks to be enough Pacific influence toraise snow levels through the day to 1500-3000 feet. Should makefor another round of rain and mountain snow.The passage of this system will help build better troughingacross the entire region, with snow levels dropping steadilythrough Saturday. Very cold arctic air is noted across BC, withstorm track having the potential to bring some of this cold airsouthward. Model guidance is pretty set on colder temperatureslate in the long term (highs 30s and lows 20s for lowlands). Atthis time it is unclear if an arctic front will drop south acrosswestern Washington, remain bottled up in BC, or be shoved E ofthe Cascades. In addition, it is unclear how much moisture therewould be to work with if an arctic front were to drop south, ascontinental polar/arctic airmasses cannot hold much moisture. Atthis point the forecast has trended towards colder temps withdecreasing moisture as snow levels drop to the sfc. Will beimportant to monitor this forecast in the coming days shouldmoisture and cold temps appear more significant together. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I might go back and take a look at the February thread, but if I recall it was generally colder and more extreme. And had some absolutely ridiculous snow maps. I think it showed Eugene getting 40"+ with that one storm...Of course there were some pretty big storms...It was very close for my snow amounts. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z ensembles looking great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 You know things are looking good when jim makes a post in the morning on a weekday. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Appears MOSSMAN will be the first to receive the goods//Would be surprised if this actually accumulates in the lowlands outside of maybe the convergence zone, but shows temperatures will be right on the edge. Most of the sea level stuff falls early Thursday morning. 9620snow.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1013 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Ensemble mean looks good. Can anyone point me to a site that allows one to view each individual ensemble run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GEFS mean high/lo temps for KBLI, KSEA, and KPDX. How are snow ensembles looking? Glad to see some ice days (subfreezing highs) in there. Haven't had one in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Current time zone45*Moderate rain.47 for the dayrain rate .14 in/hra bit breezy we now return you to your winter model riding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GEFS mean high/lo temps for KBLI, KSEA, and KPDX. Solid cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 You know things are looking good when jim makes a post in the morning on a weekday.I thought the exact same thing when I saw his post! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS snowfall maps are almost always overstated... and sometimes dramatically. Particularly over long periods of time. They are almost as useless as the surface temp maps from the GFS.Hope the programming folks are all over this bug, issue or whatever causes it to give inaccurate data such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 PDX snowfall ensemble is of the real go big or go home variety 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 PDX snowfall ensemble is of the real go big or go home variety Thanks for sharing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 PDX snowfall ensemble is of the real go big or go home variety p18 is evil. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 PDX snowfall ensemble is of the real go big or go home variety Could you please post those for yyj? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 p18 is evil. Reality lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Could you please post those for yyj? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 p18 is evil. Seems to be one of the least snowy runs in general. It has the second-lowest snow total at KBLI. Correction: more like fourth-lowest, but still a low outlier. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Really nice slug of moisture moving through the valley. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 EURO time! ❄☃I will join you as you have them in the correct order edit: my prayer symbol disappeared! Don’t understand why these character sometimes print and sometimes don’t for me....oh wellit’s there in Spirit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Rainy and breezy here in Tacoma. We're only 6 days in and January should surpass November's pathetic 1.83" rainfall total shortly. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Comparing the 12z Euro for 2 days out compared to the same time frame 5 days ago, nice to see how much better things are turning out. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Rainy and breezy here in Tacoma. We're only 6 days in and January should surpass November's pathetic 1.83" rainfall total shortly.So nice to see this pattern change! Hoping this is only the beginning of some really active fun weather!wet.....then cold, snow......AR......Wind event....back to snow.......cold and so on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro looks a bit more stronger with block and shortwave is a little deeper and further south down the coast compared to yesterday's 12z. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 You make it look so easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro looks a bit more stronger with block and shortwave is a little deeper and further south down the coast compared to yesterday's 12z.Warmer so far. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 You make it look so easy!That is what a good Lawyer does. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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