Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Skagit Weather]

Interesting, a new convergence zone/string of showers is now forming just to my north and west. I wonder if it will make it down here considering we just dropped below freezing.

[snow_wizard]

I wish people would stop using the GFS for anything more than 72 hours out.

 

We just use it to speculate.  It clued us in to the current WA cold snap well ahead of time.  What fun is it to not look ahead?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowfall... 4 p.m. Friday through 4 p.m. Saturday.

Looks like about 2-8 inches depending how far west out here.

[Jesse]

12 degrees and a star filled night here with deep snow all around. Can’t beat that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The ECMWF has moved up the timing of the best dynamics tonight for this area which means we're not going to get as much time to cool or possibly see some clearing to freeze things up.  Not a good thing for those of us who want to see some sticking snow.  If we can get some decent precip intensity it could still work.  Currently 34 here.

Temp will fall like a rock under a shower. Went from 36 to 31 late afternoon here under a shower.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 degrees and a star filled night here with deep snow all around. Can’t beat that.

Love the stars at my cabin on a night like that. Glad you are having a good time man.

[snow_wizard]

I have been thinking a lot about the current pattern and the fairly disappointing snowfall from Seattle to Olympia and I clearly remember past similar cases where the Arctic front stalled mostly over the North Interior and we had similar disappointing outcomes.  If the Arctic front had settled in 50 miles further south it would have suppressed the track of the Tuesday night low in particular and we would have done much better.  The one time the Arctic front did sag south of Seattle we did OK Monday night.  We invariably end up with the problem of the Olympics blocking the moisture when the Arctic front stalls over Snohomish County like it did this time.

[Cloud]

We just use it to speculate.  It clued us in to the current WA cold snap well ahead of time.  What fun is it to not look ahead?

It did a pretty good job latching onto the pattern more than 2 weeks out. I think I'm pretty happy with that for lookin at potential. However, within 7 days, it's bad, within 3-5 days, it's absolute in term of details. 

This is where the ECMWF will always be the preferred model. 

[Requiem]

Ooh, NWS just highlighted the possibility of dense freezing fog in the valley. I could see the commute being icy in spots with showers possibly coming in.

[snow_wizard]

Has anyone else been having problems with the Nexrad rain / snow feature not being accurate?  According to that pretty much everything has been rain all week.

[bainbridgekid]

Temp will fall like a rock under a shower. Went from 36 to 31 late afternoon here under a shower

Looks like you have another decent snow shower headed your way in the next hour or so. May even hit the North Seattle area if it holds together for a couple more hours.

[snow_wizard]

It did a pretty good job latching onto the pattern more than 2 weeks out. I think I'm pretty happy with that for lookin at potential. However, within 7 days, it's bad, within 3-5 days, it's absolute s**t in term of details. 

This is where the ECMWF will always be the preferred model. 

 

I came to the same conclusion this week.  Sometimes the GFS is better than the ECMWF for big picture stuff in the longer range, but the ECMWF is far superior in the near term with fine details.  The GFS does have it's place and it's moments for sure.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like you have another decent snow shower headed your way in the next hour or so. May even hit the North Seattle area if it holds together for a couple more hours.

My eyes are peeled on it. It might hit me. The showers always seem to pull off the the SE though.

[snow_wizard]

At this point it appears the East is going to have a super warm Janaury.  The torch is shown to mostly continue back there.  Probably good for us as far as getting another chance.

[TT-SEA]

Temp up to 37 at SEA.

 

That precip out here is not producing much so far.

[Deweydog]

EPS ALERT

[Omegaraptor]

At this point it appears the East is going to have a super warm Janaury. The torch is shown to mostly continue back there. Probably good for us as far as getting another chance.

Us too, but not as ridiculous as what the East Coast is getting. Looking like a warm Jan for most of the CONUS. If the forecast means anything Oregon is going to get those strong positive departures right back, not that they ever went away. Good chance it ends up as a big torch, and considering it’s January I’m really not surprised.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Shelton light snow and 28.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33F and foggy.

[Deweydog]

Us too. Looking like a warm Jan for most of the CONUS. If the forecast means anything Oregon is going to get those strong positive departures right back, not that they ever went away.

I’m making T-shirts that say “I went to PDX during the -12 PNA and all I got was one sub-40 high and this t-shirt.”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WWA extended to the North Oregon Coast and Coast Range.

[Perturbed Member]

A dusting seems quite possible

 

 

 

 

[Requiem]

A dusting seems quite possible

 

 

 

 

 

Definitely has the chance to be kinda bad for the commute in the hills at least, with dense freezing fog, snow showers, and black ice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WWA just expanded to Central and Northern Willamette Valley, Clark County, and the Cascade Foothills. 

[umadbro]

WWA just expanded to Central and Northern Willamette Valley, Clark County, and the Cascade Foothills.

Portland NWS must need some attention.

[MikeInEverett]

Radar looks pretty lackluster

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is already showing signs of going into what I like to call the stair step look by late in the month.  Looks promising, but this is very preliminary of course.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS mean also shows AK getting very cold again like the operational GFS.  Pretty big model changes taking place for week two in a very short time.

[Cloud]

I came to the same conclusion this week. Sometimes the GFS is better than the ECMWF for big picture stuff in the longer range, but the ECMWF is far superior in the near term with fine details. The GFS does have it's place and it's moments for sure.

With all the upgrades and everything, it’s still a very respectable model. Outside of 10 days, many of us, myself included was touting it for its consistency and timing in the runs. In the mid-range, the Euro is still far superior.

 

Overall, I think the GFS still needs work, especially in the mid-range. I don’t think it failed to advertised the cold (look at northern interior) despite some skepticism, it failed to get the details in place.

[Cloud]

Down to 35, actually a pretty chilly night.

Too bad all the snow that fell have all melted off.

 

Looking forward to next cold shot.

[snow_wizard]

With all the upgrades and everything, it’s still a very respectable model. Outside of 10 days, many of us, myself included was touting it for its consistency and timing in the runs. In the mid-range, the Euro is still far superior.

 

Overall, I think the GFS still needs work, especially in the mid-range. I don’t think it failed to advertised the cold (look at northern interior) despite some skepticism, it failed to get the details in place.

 

Yeah....there is no way to deny the basic pattern that was being advertised verified.  Highs in the mid teens in Whatcom County is legit cold.  As always the devil was in the details.  When we look for cold spells way out in time we are just looking for big picture stuff.  The GFS has been decent at that this season.

 

Totally unrelated, but one thought I just had is this cold snap was focused a tad too far north, and the last one was too far south.  Maybe the next one (if it happens) will be just right.

[Perturbed Member]

Some light precip moving up the valley now. 

[Dave]

Why do I torture myself? Rain here. It even failed the splat test.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS 

 

Rationale behind Winter Weather Advisories is based on satellite/
radar trends suggesting a cluster of snow showers with tops as high
as 15-20kft, plenty deep/strong enough to make it across the Coast
Range. Also, fog in place will assist precip reaching the ground due
to seeder-feeder processes. Valley floor north of Albany will likely
see a dusting to a half inch, with spotty accumulations up to 1 inch
in heavier showers. Temperatures have been below freezing for
several hours now across much of this area, so snow will probably
accumulate immediately after beginning, even on untreated roads.
This event is very likely to impact the Friday morning commute with
snowy or icy roads, especially in outlying and untreated areas.
~Weagle

[FroYoBro]

Don’t look now, but there is a light snow band coming at Portland!

 

33 degrees here. I see snow flying in some of the Salem cams right now.

[JeremyVoidMain]

some 2AM snow in Bellingham tonight! (Meridian neighborhood) https://i.imgur.com/EQD1g48.mp4

[Blizzard777]

Almost to PDX

[FroYoBro]

Snowing on cams in McMinnville.

[Perturbed Member]

It is sticking down there to the lowest elevations

 

[umadbro]

Looks like I'm going to be wrong. Still doesn't make up for 2 years of epic failures for the models.